特朗普的關稅政策衝擊了撥浪鼓市場，但這是需要的嗎？

財政部長斯科特·貝斯特（Scott Bessent）週五對市場的絆腳石進行了解決，主要追踪蕭條主要在“宏偉的7”（MAG 7）中降低了 - 阿馬森，特斯拉，微軟，梅塔，梅塔，恩維迪亞和同齡人 - 比特朗普的貿易措施相比。

U.S. equities tumbled sharply Thursday, hours after President Donald Trump introduced expansive trade levies in what several analysts believe is a move to slow the economy and lower debt burdens.

在唐納德·特朗普總統提出龐大的貿易徵稅之後，美國股票急劇跌落，幾個分析師認為這是減慢經濟和降低債務負擔的舉動。

The administration’s aim to orchestrate a downturn has been a subject of speculation throughout 2024, as February saw the year-to-date federal deficit hit $1.15 trillion—a 38% increase from 2024 and spurring urgent calls to cut spending.

政府策劃低迷的目的是整個2024年的猜測，因為2月的聯邦赤字達到了11.1.5萬億美元，比2024年增加了38％，並激發了削減支出的緊急呼籲。

This strategy, which the research firm The Kobeissi Letter claims was discussed and decided upon even before Trump’s January inauguration, has already seen trillions wiped from U.S. stock valuations and driven investors toward safe-haven assets like gold—which has been tapping new lifetime highs.

研究公司Kobeissi信件聲稱的這一策略甚至在特朗普一月份就職典禮之前就已經討論並決定了這一策略，但已經看到了美國股票估值的數万億美元，並驅使投資者朝著諸如黃金之類的安全資產驅動了新的終生高點。

Cryptocurrencies and equities have also suffered steep losses. According to The Kobeissi Letter, Trump’s circle views a recession as the fastest path to lower rates ahead of the 2025 debt refinancing cliff.

加密貨幣和股票也遭受了巨大的損失。根據Kobeissi的信，特朗普的圈子將經濟衰退視為在2025年債務再融資懸崖之前降低利率的最快途徑。

“Does everyone saying we have a ‘great economy’ realize we are $37 trillion in debt and it costs over $1 trillion to service the debt?” asked Jacob Canfield. “The only way out is by refinancing our debt at lower interest rates. And the only way to get lower rates? Crash the market. Force the Fed’s hand. Make them cut rates. When rates drop the U.S. can roll over debt more cheaply. When you get cheap debt everything will go up. Short term: crash for real estate, stocks, and crypto and boom for gold and precious metals. Long term: new all time highs across the board.”

“每個人都說我們有'偉大的經濟'意識到我們的債務37萬億美元，為債務償還債務的費用超過1萬億美元嗎？”雅各布·坎菲爾德問。 “唯一的出路是將我們的債務以較低的利率進行再融資。以及獲得較低利率的唯一方法？崩潰了市場。迫使美聯儲的手。當利率下降時，美國可以更便宜地償還債務。當您獲得便宜的債務時，一切都會上升。短期：房地產，股票，股票，股票，股票和繁榮的金屬和繁重的金屬。

Canfield's analysis aligns with the thinking of Bitmex co-founder Arthur Hayes, who penned an April 3 note saying that the Fed will ultimately be forced to respond.

Canfield的分析與Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes的想法保持一致，後者寫了4月3日的筆記，稱美聯儲最終將被迫做出回應。

“Trump's tariff formula is further evidence he is laser focused on reversing these imbalances. We covered this in a prior note, but foreign surplus units largely invest in the U.S. and buy up dollar-denominated assets such as Treasuries to park their savings in a "safe" haven. But without a trade surplus, foreign entities have no reason to continue mopping up the riski installment of the U.S. financial system. This is partly why Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and levied tariffs on China. He wants to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and shift the flows of capital back into the States. The problem for treasuries is that without $ exports foreigners can’t buy bonds. The Fed and banking system must step up to ensure a well functioning treasury market, which means Brrrr.”

“特朗普的關稅配方進一步證明了他的激光側重於扭轉這些不平衡。我們在先前的筆記中介紹了這一點，但是外國的盈餘單位在很大程度上投資於美國，併購買了以美元計價的資產（例如，諸如國債，可以將其儲蓄停在“安全”避風港中。在中國的跨太平洋夥伴關係和徵收關稅中。

Administration officials have also tipped their hand on this strategy in recent months. At a March 6 event, Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated plainly that the “stock market [is] not driving outcomes.”

近幾個月來，政府官員還向這一策略發揮了作用。在3月6日的活動中，商務部長盧特尼克（Lutnick）清楚地表示，“股票市場不推動成果”。

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent today addressed the market's stumble, attributing it to declines among the "Magnificent 7" (Mag 7)—Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, and peers—rather than Trump's trade measures. He noted the Nasdaq's all-time high coincided with Chinese AI firm Deepseek's launch of advanced language models, sparking unease over the competitiveness of American tech investments in artificial intelligence (AI).

同時，財政部長斯科特·貝斯特（Scott Bessent）今天解決了市場的絆腳石，將其歸因於“宏偉的7”（MAG 7）（Amazon，Tesla，Microsoft，Microsoft，Meta，Nvidia和Paceers），而不是特朗普的貿易措施。他指出，納斯達克的歷史最高含量與中國AI公司DeepSeek推出高級語言模型相吻合，這引起了美國技術投資在人工智能（AI）的競爭力的不安。

Bessent asserted, "That's a Mag 7 issue rather than a MAGA issue," framing the decline as specific to tech equities, not wider tariff shifts.

Bessent斷言：“這是一個Mag 7問題，而不是Maga問題”，將下降構建為特定於技術股票而不是更廣泛的關稅轉移。

This view is shared by several observers, who suggest Trump's inner circle may be intentionally aiming for a downturn to facilitate restructuring the nation's towering debt obligations.

幾位觀察家分享了這種觀點，他們認為特朗普的內心圈子可能是故意的，目的是使經濟低迷促進重組該國的高聳債務義務。

The strategy, which the research firm The Kobeissi Letter claims was discussed and decided upon even before Trump's January inauguration, has already seen trillions wiped from U.S. stock valuations and driven investors toward safe-haven assets like gold—which has been tapping new lifetime highs.

研究公司Kobeissi信件聲稱的這項策略甚至在特朗普一月份就職典禮之前就已經進行了討論並決定了這項策略，已經看到了美國股票估值的數万億美元，並驅使投資者朝著諸如黃金之類的安全資產中驅動了新的終生高點。

Cryptocurrencies and equities have also suffered steep losses. According to The Kobeissi Letter, Trump's team views a recession as the fastest path to lower rates ahead of the 2025 debt refinancing cliff.

加密貨幣和股票也遭受了巨大的損失。根據Kobeissi的信，特朗普的團隊認為經濟衰退是在2025年債務再融資懸崖之前降低利率的最快途徑。

"Does everyone saying we have a ‘great economy’ realize we are $37 trillion in debt and it costs over $1 trillion to service the debt?" asked Jacob Canfield. "The only way out is by refinancing our debt at lower interest rates. And the only way to get lower rates? Crash the market. Force the Fed's hand. Make them cut rates. When rates drop the U.S. can roll over debt more cheaply. When you get cheap debt everything will go up. Short term: crash for real estate, stocks, and crypto and boom for gold and precious metals. Long term: new all time highs across the board."

“每個人都說我們有'偉大的經濟'意識到我們的債務37萬億美元，為債務償還債務的費用超過1萬億美元嗎？”雅各布·坎菲爾德問。 “唯一的出路是將我們的債務以較低的利率進行再融資。以及獲得較低利率的唯一方法？崩潰了市場。迫使美聯儲的手。使它們降低利率。​​當利率下降時，美國可以更便宜地償還債務。當您獲得便宜的債務時，便會上漲。短期：房地產，股票，股票，股票，股票，加油和繁榮的金屬和珍貴的金屬。

Canfield's analysis aligns with the thinking of Bitmex co-founder Arthur Hayes, who penned an April 3 note saying that the Fed will ultimately be

Canfield的分析與Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes的思考相吻合，後者寫了4月3日的筆記，說美聯儲最終將是