XRP長期持有人在潛在的40％的價格下降至1.21美元之前積累

儘管有明顯的看漲，但技術指標仍表明潛在的40％下降到1.21美元。

Long-term holders of XRP are once again accumulating, a trend that has often been observed to precede market corrections, according to Glassnode. However, despite this apparent bullishness, technical indicators suggest a potential 40% decline in XRP towards $1.21.

根據GlassNode的說法，XRP的長期持有人再次積累，這種趨勢經常被觀察到在市場校正之前。然而，儘管明顯看漲，但技術指標表明，XRP的潛在下降了40％，達到1.21美元。

Long-Term Holder Accumulation: A Cautionary Tale

長期持有人的積累：一個警示性的故事

長期持有人的積累：一個警示性的故事

Data from Glassnode shows that the “Percent of XRP Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago” has begun to rise after a substantial decrease during XRP’s rally above $3 in early 2025.

來自GlassNode的數據表明，“ XRP供應量的最後一個活性百分比1多年前”在2025年初的XRP拉力賽中大幅下降後開始上升。

While this uptick may indicate a return of confidence among dormant holders, an examination of previous market cycles reveals a concerning pattern. Periods of rising "Percent of XRP Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago" have often coincided with either price stagnation or declines.

儘管這種上升可能表明休眠持有人之間有信心的回報，但對以前的市場週期的檢查表明了一個有關模式。 “ XRP供應百分比上次活躍1多年前”的時期通常與價格停滯或下降相吻合。

During XRP’s ascent to a multi-year high of $3.40, the dormant supply metric fell sharply, indicating that long-term holders were selling into the rally. However, this trend has reversed since February 2025, suggesting that holders are now locking up their assets as prices have declined by over 30%.

在XRP上升至3.40美元的多年高點時，休眠的供應指標急劇下降，表明長期持有人正在銷售集會。但是，自2025年2月以來，這種趨勢已經逆轉，這表明持有人現在鎖定其資產，因為價格下降了30％以上。

These patterns closely resemble those observed during the bear markets of 2018 and 2021. For instance, in late 2017, when XRP reached an all-time high of $3.55, there was a surge in selling activity among long-dormant holders. A similar scenario unfolded in 2021 when XRP hit a local peak around $1.80, followed by distribution among long-term holders and subsequent price consolidation.

這些模式與2018年和2021年熊市中觀察到的模式非常類似。當XRP在1.80美元左右達到當地峰值時，在2021年展開了類似的情況，然後在長期持有人之間分配以及隨後的價格合併。

Descending Triangle Signals Potential Breakdown

下降三角信號潛在的故障

下降三角信號潛在的故障

Furthermore, XRP is forming a descending triangle on its weekly chart, a pattern that is typically associated with bearish breakdowns. As of April 3, 2025, XRP is trading within a critical support range of $1.95 to $2.00. A breakdown below this level could lead to a fall towards $1.21, a significant historical resistance level that may now act as support. The declining Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicates bearish momentum.

此外，XRP在其每週圖表上形成了一個下降三角形，這種模式通常與看跌的分解有關。截至2025年4月3日，XRP的交易在1.95美元至2.00美元的關鍵支持範圍內。低於此水平的細分可能會導致1.21美元跌落，這是一個重要的歷史阻力水平，現在可以作為支持。相對強度指數下降（RSI）也表明看跌動量。

Understanding the cyclical nature of XRP’s market movements is crucial for traders and investors. Throughout history, XRP has exhibited a pattern where sharp price increases are met with profit-taking by long-term holders, ultimately leading to corrections.

了解XRP市場發展的周期性對於貿易商和投資者至關重要。在整個歷史上，XRP都表現出一種模式，其中長期持有人的盈利能力達到了巨大的價格上漲，最終導致了更正。

Key Technical Indicators and Market Outlook

關鍵技術指標和市場前景

關鍵技術指標和市場前景

* XRP is forming a descending triangle on the weekly chart, suggesting a potential breakdown.

* XRP在每週圖表上形成一個下降三角形，這表明潛在的崩潰。

* Critical support zone: $1.95 to $2.00. A breakdown below this range could open the path for a move towards $1.21.

*關鍵支持區：$ 1.95至$ 2.00。低於此範圍的故障可能會為駛向$ 1.21的途徑開闢道路。

* Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a declining trend, indicating bearish momentum.

*相對強度指數（RSI）處於趨勢下降，表明看跌動量。

* Long-term holders are accumulating, which is often observed during market corrections.

*長期持有人正在積累，這通常在市場校正期間觀察到。

Trading Strategies for XRP Investors

XRP投資者的交易策略

XRP投資者的交易策略

Short-Term Trading Approach

短期交易方法

短期交易方法

* Enter short trades at the upper boundary of the triangle with a stop loss above recent highs.

*在三角形的上部邊界上輸入短交易，並以高於最近的高點的停止損失。

* Aim for a target at the lower boundary of the triangle.

*瞄準三角形下邊界的目標。

* Consider using technical indicators like RSI and MACD to confirm trading signals.

*考慮使用RSI和MACD等技術指標確認交易信號。

Long-Term Investment Strategy

長期投資策略

長期投資策略

* Average down on any further price declines, especially if there is a strong macroeconomic recovery.

*任何進一步的價格下降的平均值下降，尤其是在宏觀經濟恢復強勁的情況下。

* Set a long-term price target based on Fibonacci retracements or other technical analysis methods.

*基於斐波那契回波或其他技術分析方法設定長期目標目標。

* Stay informed about any major technical formations or shifts in market trends.

*請了解任何主要技術形式或市場趨勢轉變。

Final Thoughts: Caution Amid Accumulation

最終想法：謹慎積累

最終想法：謹慎積累

While the fact that long-term holders are accumulating suggests renewed confidence in XRP, it’s important to note that periods of such accumulation have often been observed to precede market corrections. Technical indicators are also signaling potential bearish formations, which traders should keep in mind.

儘管長期持有人積累的事實表明對XRP的信心重新信心，但重要的是要注意，經常觀察到這種積累的時期是在市場糾正之前。技術指標也表明了交易者應記住的潛在看跌構造。

As always, comprehensive market analysis and sound risk management strategies are crucial for navigating the ever-changing cryptocurrency landscape.

與往常一樣，全面的市場分析和合理的風險管理策略對於導航不斷變化的加密貨幣景觀至關重要。