比特幣在市場動盪期間的歷史不一定鼓勵這次成功機會

隨著全球經濟急切地等待特朗普總統的關稅公告，一些交易者已經在考慮最壞的情況。

As the global economic landscape anxiously anticipates President Trump's tariff announcements, some traders are already contemplating worst-case scenarios. In today's turbulent climate, that notion evokes stagflation—a troublesome economic condition characterized by high inflation and low growth.

正如全球經濟格局急切地預期特朗普總統的關稅公告時，一些交易者已經在考慮最糟糕的情況。在當今動蕩的氣候下，這種概念喚起了停滯，這是一種麻煩的經濟狀況，其特徵是高通貨膨脹和低增長。

"Tariffs are a staglationary shock to the economy. They reduce growth and raise inflation," explains Zach Pandl, head of research at digital asset manager Grayscale and a former senior economist at Goldman Sachs. "What we don't know is the mix in terms of stagnation and inflation. At the moment, markets are more focused on stagnation, but we very well may see more inflation persistence over time."

“關稅是對經濟的停滯衝擊。它們減少了增長並提高通貨膨脹，”數字資產經理Grayscale研究負責人Zach Pandl解釋說。 “我們不知道的是停滯和通貨膨脹。目前，市場更加集中於停滯，但隨著時間的流逝，我們很可能會看到更多的通貨膨脹持續性。”

For many investors, especially those with bitcoin exposure, a key question is how this asset class will perform in such an environment. After all, the last period of stagflalion, at least in the U.S., occurred in the 1970s due to the Arab oil embargo of the U.S. These are questions that have not needed to be addressed for 50 years—long before Satoshi Nakamoto wrote the famous Bitcoin white paper.

對於許多投資者來說，尤其是那些擁有比特幣曝光的投資者，一個關鍵的問題是該資產類別在這種環境中的表現。畢竟，至少在美國，由於美國的阿拉伯石油禁運，這是1970年代，這些問題是在1970年代發生的，這些問題是50年來不需要解決的問題 - 長時間之前，Nakamoto撰寫了著名的比特幣白皮書。

Bitcoin's history during periods of market turmoil isn't necessarily encouraging. During the market recession in 2020 at the outset of the COVID pandemic, the asset briefly dropped below $4,000. At other times of market stress, such as the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade in August 2024 or the broader market downturn in 2022, it behaved more like a speculative asset than the store of value that it is purported to be.

在市場動盪時期，比特幣的歷史不一定鼓勵。在2020年的市場經濟衰退期間，在Covid大流行一開始，該資產短暫降至4,000美元以下。在其他時期，諸如2024年8月日元日元攜帶貿易的放鬆或2022年更廣泛的市場下滑，其表現更像是投機性的資產，而不是據稱它的價值存儲。

However, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic about bitcoin's chances this time, Pandl says. "Much like the 1970s was a breakout period for gold [which had an average annualized 31% return], I believe that the coming decade will be a breakout period for Bitcoin. It's the right macro asset at the right time, and we have significant improvements in market structure creating more investor access to the product."

但是，有理由對這次比特幣的機會保持謹慎樂觀。 “就像1970年代是黃金的突破期（平均每年31％的回報率），我相信未來十年將是比特幣的突破期。這是正確時間的正確宏觀資產，而且我們在市場結構上取得了重大改善，從而創造了更多的投資者對產品的訪問。”

Stagflation = Gold Rush

滯留=淘金熱

Stagflation is an exceptionally rare occurrence, even during poor economic climes. The U.S. has had 16 recessions in the past 100 years, but only one period of stagflation: the 1970s. And given the economy's ongoing resilience, it's not a material concern yet.

即使在經濟差的糟糕的情況下，僵局也是一個異常罕見的發生。在過去的100年中，美國有16個衰退，但只有一個陷阱：1970年代。鑑於經濟持續的彈性，這還不是重大問題。

"Although there are concerns about stagflation, we're nowhere near what occurred in the Seventies. At that period of time, there was a period of excess in the Sixties, the Vietnam War, and then you also had this exogenous shock of the Arab oil embargoes. The price of energy skyrocketed and the nation just was not ready for it," says Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick went on to point out how, at 4% unemployment, the U.S. economy remains in an enviable position. Also, inflation, which peaked to 1970s levels just a couple of years ago, is now down to 2-3%.

“儘管對停滯有擔憂，但我們還遠沒有七十年代發生的事情。在那段時間裡，六十年代的越南戰爭中有一段過剩的時期，然後你也遭受了阿拉伯石油禁運的這種外源性衝擊。能量的價格飛漲，國家還沒有準備好，” Steve sosnick sosnick bytive of noternick of noternick areve of It for It。索斯尼克（Sosnick）繼續指出，在4％的失業率下，美國經濟狀況如何仍然令人羨慕。同樣，幾年前達到1970年代水平的通貨膨脹現在降至2-3％。

But even according to Sosnick, the threshold for stagflation does not have to meet the trauma of the 1970s. "If you want to define stagflation as a period involving a stagnating economy and higher prices, then I think it's hardly an idle concern," he says.

但是，即使索斯尼克（Sosnick）認為，滯留的門檻也不必符合1970年代的創傷。他說：“如果您想將停滯定義為涉及經濟停滯和更高價格的時期，那麼我認為這並不是一個閒置的問題。”

So how did markets react to the shock of the oil embargo, which started in 1973? They bought gold and moved away from stocks, as indicated in the chart below. The S&P 500 only gained 26.99% for the entire decade, an annualized growth rate of a little over 2%. Considering the double-digit inflation of that period, anyone holding shares in those stocks lost money in real terms. Conversely, gold offered 30% annualized returns for most of the decade, and then it surged more than 500% at the tail end of the decade after concerns about persistent inflation really took hold.

那麼，市場對1973年開始的石油禁運的衝擊有何反應？如下圖所示，他們購買了黃金並遠離股票。標準普爾500指數在整個十年中僅上漲了26.99％，年增長率略高於2％。考慮到那個時期的兩位數通貨膨脹，持有這些股票股份的任何人實際損失了錢。相反，在過去的十年中，黃金在大部分時間裡提供了30％的年度回報，然後在十年的尾聲中飆升了500％以上，此前對持續通貨膨脹的擔憂確實得到了持續。

This inverse relationship between gold and stocks has been consistent through the decades. The only real exception was when they rose at the same rate during the COVID outbreak as the Federal Reserve injected trillions of dollars into the economy and buttressed virtually every asset class in the world.

在過去的幾十年中，黃金與股票之間的這種反相關關係一直保持一致。唯一真正的例外是，當美聯儲向經濟中註入了數万億美元，並在世界上幾乎支撐世界上的每個資產類別時，它們都以相同的速度上升。

It is even holding true again in 2025 as concerns about the impact of President Trump's erratic tariff policies spook markets. Gold continues to set record highs, and it is currently priced at $3,171 per oz, while bitcoin is trailing both the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100.

由於對特朗普總統不穩定的關稅政策的影響，它甚至在2025年再次實現。 Gold繼續創造了創紀錄的高點，目前的價格為每一盎司3,171美元，而比特幣則落後於標準普爾500指數和技術繁重的納斯達克100。

Bitcoin: Finally a Safe Haven?

比特幣：終於是一個避風港？

Will things be different this time? It is important to

這次情況會有所不同嗎？重要的是