比特币减半迫在眉睫：经济转变中的市场影响

在比特币备受期待的第四次减半之前，市场满怀期待。预计该事件将在 10 小时内发生，比特币价格徘徊在 64,960 美元附近，明显高于 2020 年 5 月上次减半时的 8,700 美元。加密货币整体市值也从 2340 亿美元增长到 2.35 万亿美元。

The Impending Bitcoin Halving: Dissecting Its Impact on Crypto Markets Amidst a Shifting Economic Landscape

即将到来的比特币减半：在不断变化的经济格局中剖析其对加密货币市场的影响

The highly anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving event is just around the corner, with markets poised for potential repercussions on Bitcoin prices and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. This pre-programmed event, slated to occur within the next 10 hours, is poised to reduce the Bitcoin mining reward by half, a move that has historically spurred significant market fluctuations.

备受期待的第四次比特币减半事件即将到来，市场准备对比特币价格和更广泛的加密货币生态系统产生潜在影响。这一预先安排的事件预计将在未来 10 小时内发生，预计会将比特币挖矿奖励减少一半，这一举措历来曾引发市场大幅波动。

A Trip Down Memory Lane: Contrasting Economic and Market Dynamics

回忆之旅：对比经济和市场动态

To fully grasp the potential implications of this halving, it is imperative to juxtapose the current economic and market conditions with those prevailing during the previous halving that occurred on May 11, 2020.

为了充分掌握本次减半的潜在影响，必须将当前的经济和市场状况与 2020 年 5 月 11 日发生的上一次减半期间的情况进行比较。

Back then, Bitcoin traded at approximately $8,700, with a market capitalization of $161 billion and a circulating supply of 18.4 million Bitcoins. Today, Bitcoin hovers near $64,960, boasting a market capitalization of $1.28 trillion and a circulating supply of 19.7 million, representing 93.75% of the maximum supply of 21 million.

当时，比特币交易价格约为 8,700 美元，市值为 1,610 亿美元，流通量为 1,840 万枚。如今，比特币徘徊在 64,960 美元附近，市值为 1.28 万亿美元，流通量为 1970 万枚，占最大供应量 2100 万枚的 93.75%。

Macroeconomic Disparities: A Tale of Contrasting Fortunes

宏观经济差异：财富对比的故事

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in January 2020 profoundly reshaped the global economic landscape. The U.S. economy suffered a sharp contraction of 5.3% in the first quarter of 2020, followed by a further 28% decline in the second quarter. Simultaneously, inflation remained subdued, hovering at 1.5% in March 2020 and 0.3% in April 2020.

2020 年 1 月爆发的新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 大流行深刻重塑了全球经济格局。 2020年第一季度美国经济大幅萎缩5.3%，第二季度进一步下滑28%。与此同时，通胀依然低迷，2020 年 3 月和 2020 年 4 月徘徊在 1.5% 和 0.3%。

In response, the Federal Reserve embarked on aggressive monetary easing measures, slashing interest rates to 1.25% in March 2020 and further to 0.25% a month later. Additionally, the Fed ramped up its asset purchases to bolster credit flow during the pandemic. These measures boosted liquidity while simultaneously expanding the Fed's balance sheet from $6.9 trillion to $8.7 trillion between May 2020 and mid-November 2021.

作为回应，美联储采取了激进的货币宽松措施，于 2020 年 3 月将利率降至 1.25%，一个月后进一步降至 0.25%。此外，美联储在疫情期间加大了资产购买力度，以增加信贷流动。这些措施增加了流动性，同时将美联储的资产负债表从 2020 年 5 月至 2021 年 11 月中旬从 6.9 万亿美元扩大到 8.7 万亿美元。

A Paradigm Shift in Monetary Policy

货币政策范式转变

However, the economic landscape has undergone a significant transformation since then. As of October 2021, consumer price inflation soared to 6.2%, prompting the Fed to initiate a shift in policy. The central bank began reducing its monthly asset purchases in November 2021 and embarked on a series of interest rate hikes in March 2022. Interest rates have been raised steadily, reaching a 22-year high of 5.5% in July 2023.

然而，自那时以来，经济格局发生了重大转变。截至2021年10月，消费者价格通胀飙升至6.2%，促使美联储启动政策转变。央行于2021年11月开始减少每月资产购买规模，并于2022年3月开始一系列加息。利率稳步上调，于2023年7月达到22年高点5.5%。

The Evolving Monetary Policy Stance

不断变化的货币政策立场

While the Fed's focus during the previous Bitcoin halving was on ensuring credit flow, it is now determined to combat inflation and reduce liquidity. This shift is reflected in the hardening of 10-year U.S. bond yields, which have climbed from 0.685% before the previous halving to 4.6% currently.

虽然美联储在上次比特币减半期间的重点是确保信贷流动，但现在决心对抗通胀并减少流动性。这一转变体现在美国10年期国债收益率的走强上，该收益率已从上次减半前的0.685%攀升至目前的4.6%。

Dollar Strengthening: A Reflection of Hawkish Monetary Policy

美元走强：鹰派货币政策的体现

The Dollar Index, a measure of the U.S. dollar's strength against a basket of six currencies, stood near the 100 level prior to the last halving. However, the combination of higher interest rates and a hawkish monetary policy outlook has pushed the Dollar Index to approximately 106.

衡量美元兑一篮子六种货币强势程度的美元指数在上次减半前处于 100 水平附近。然而，较高的利率和鹰派的货币政策前景共同推动美元指数升至 106 左右。

Economic Resilience Amidst Interest Rate Hikes

加息期间的经济韧性

Despite restrictive interest rates, the U.S. economy has demonstrated resilience, recording growth of 4.9% and 3.4% in the last two quarters of 2023. Nevertheless, inflation remains elevated, with consumer price inflation rising to 3.5% in March 2024. This persistent inflation, coupled with a strong labor market and robust economic growth, limits the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy.

尽管利率受到限制，美国经济仍表现出韧性，2023 年最后两个季度分别增长 4.9% 和 3.4%。尽管如此，通胀仍然较高，消费者价格通胀在 2024 年 3 月升至 3.5%。这种持续的通胀，再加上强劲的劳动力市场和强劲的经济增长，限制了美联储放松货币政策的能力。

Cryptocurrency Market Response: A Hesitant Reaction

加密货币市场反应：犹豫不决

The contrasting macroeconomic backdrop provides a compelling explanation for the cryptocurrency market's subdued performance despite the impending halving. While Bitcoin reached a peak of $73,750 in March 2024, supported by a surge in Bitcoin spot ETF investments, high interest rates continue to weigh on non-interest-bearing cryptocurrencies.

尽管即将减半，但对比鲜明的宏观经济背景为加密货币市场的低迷表现提供了令人信服的解释。尽管在比特币现货 ETF 投资激增的支撑下，比特币于 2024 年 3 月达到了 73,750 美元的峰值，但高利率继续对无息加密货币构成压力。

Market Movements: A Surge in Bitcoin, Ethereum Lags

市场走势：比特币飙升，以太坊滞后

The halving euphoria has resulted in Bitcoin experiencing overnight gains of 3.7% and year-to-date gains of 54%, currently trading at $64,959. In contrast, Ethereum (ETH) has recorded a modest overnight gain of 2%, but remains 37% below its all-time high at its current price of $3,101.

减半的狂热导致比特币隔夜上涨 3.7%，年初至今上涨 54%，目前交易价格为 64,959 美元。相比之下，以太坊 (ETH) 隔夜小幅上涨 2%，但仍比历史高点 3,101 美元低 37%。

Other notable altcoin performances include:

其他值得注意的山寨币表现包括：

• Solana (SOL): Overnight jump of over 8%
• Cardano (ADA): Close to 6% gain in the past 24 hours
• BNB (BNB): Over 3% increase
• Toncoin (TON): More than 3% overnight gain
• Dogecoin (DOGE): Over 3% gain in the past 24 hours
• XRP (XRP): Overnight increase of over 1%

Overall, the majority of the top 100 cryptocurrencies are witnessing overnight gains.

Solana (SOL)：隔夜涨幅超过 8% Cardano (ADA)：过去 24 小时涨幅接近 6% BNB (BNB)：涨幅超过 3% Toncoin (TON)：隔夜涨幅超过 3%Dogecoin (DOGE)：超过 3过去 24 小时涨幅百分比 XRP (XRP)：隔夜涨幅超过 1% 总体而言，前 100 名加密货币中的大多数都见证了隔夜涨幅。

For up-to-date cryptocurrency news and analysis, visit rttnews.com.

有关最新的加密货币新闻和分析，请访问 rttnews.com。

Author: Avila Sebastian

作者：阿维拉·塞巴斯蒂安

Staff Writer, RTTNews

RTT新闻特约撰稿人

Contact: editorial@rttnews.com

联系方式： editorial@rttnews.com