比特幣減半迫在眉睫：經濟轉變中的市場影響

在比特幣備受期待的第四次減半之前，市場充滿期待。預計該事件將在10 小時內發生，比特幣價格徘徊在64,960 美元附近，明顯高於2020 年5 月上次減半時的8,700 美元。 。

The Impending Bitcoin Halving: Dissecting Its Impact on Crypto Markets Amidst a Shifting Economic Landscape

即將到來的比特幣減半：在不斷變化的經濟格局中剖析其對加密貨幣市場的影響

The highly anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving event is just around the corner, with markets poised for potential repercussions on Bitcoin prices and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. This pre-programmed event, slated to occur within the next 10 hours, is poised to reduce the Bitcoin mining reward by half, a move that has historically spurred significant market fluctuations.

備受期待的第四次比特幣減半即將到來，市場準備對比特幣價格和更廣泛的加密貨幣生態系統產生潛在影響。這項預先安排的事件預計將在未來 10 小時內發生，預計將比特幣挖礦獎勵減少一半，這項舉措歷來曾引發市場大幅波動。

A Trip Down Memory Lane: Contrasting Economic and Market Dynamics

回憶之旅：對比經濟與市場動態

To fully grasp the potential implications of this halving, it is imperative to juxtapose the current economic and market conditions with those prevailing during the previous halving that occurred on May 11, 2020.

為了充分掌握本次減半的潛在影響，必須將當前的經濟和市場狀況與 2020 年 5 月 11 日發生的上一次減半期間的情況進行比較。

Back then, Bitcoin traded at approximately $8,700, with a market capitalization of $161 billion and a circulating supply of 18.4 million Bitcoins. Today, Bitcoin hovers near $64,960, boasting a market capitalization of $1.28 trillion and a circulating supply of 19.7 million, representing 93.75% of the maximum supply of 21 million.

當時，比特幣交易價格約為 8,700 美元，市值為 1,610 億美元，流通量為 1,840 萬枚。如今，比特幣徘徊在 64,960 美元附近，市值為 1.28 兆美元，流通量為 1,970 萬枚，佔最大供應量 2,100 萬枚的 93.75%。

Macroeconomic Disparities: A Tale of Contrasting Fortunes

宏觀經濟差異：財富對比的故事

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in January 2020 profoundly reshaped the global economic landscape. The U.S. economy suffered a sharp contraction of 5.3% in the first quarter of 2020, followed by a further 28% decline in the second quarter. Simultaneously, inflation remained subdued, hovering at 1.5% in March 2020 and 0.3% in April 2020.

2020 年 1 月爆發的新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 大流行深刻重塑了全球經濟格局。 2020年第一季美國經濟大幅萎縮5.3%，第二季進一步下滑28%。同時，通膨依然低迷，2020 年 3 月和 2020 年 4 月徘徊在 1.5% 和 0.3%。

In response, the Federal Reserve embarked on aggressive monetary easing measures, slashing interest rates to 1.25% in March 2020 and further to 0.25% a month later. Additionally, the Fed ramped up its asset purchases to bolster credit flow during the pandemic. These measures boosted liquidity while simultaneously expanding the Fed's balance sheet from $6.9 trillion to $8.7 trillion between May 2020 and mid-November 2021.

作為回應，聯準會採取了激進的貨幣寬鬆措施，於 2020 年 3 月將利率降至 1.25%，一個月後進一步降至 0.25%。此外，聯準會在疫情期間加強了資產購買力度，以增加信貸流動。這些措施增加了流動性，同時將聯準會的資產負債表從 2020 年 5 月至 2021 年 11 月中旬從 6.9 兆美元擴大到 8.7 兆美元。

A Paradigm Shift in Monetary Policy

貨幣政策範式轉變

However, the economic landscape has undergone a significant transformation since then. As of October 2021, consumer price inflation soared to 6.2%, prompting the Fed to initiate a shift in policy. The central bank began reducing its monthly asset purchases in November 2021 and embarked on a series of interest rate hikes in March 2022. Interest rates have been raised steadily, reaching a 22-year high of 5.5% in July 2023.

然而，自那時以來，經濟格局發生了重大轉變。截至2021年10月，消費者物價通膨飆升至6.2%，促使聯準會啟動政策轉變。央行於2021年11月開始減少每月資產購買規模，並於2022年3月開始一系列升息。

The Evolving Monetary Policy Stance

不斷變化的貨幣政策立場

While the Fed's focus during the previous Bitcoin halving was on ensuring credit flow, it is now determined to combat inflation and reduce liquidity. This shift is reflected in the hardening of 10-year U.S. bond yields, which have climbed from 0.685% before the previous halving to 4.6% currently.

雖然聯準會在上次比特幣減半期間的重點是確保信貸流動，但現在決心對抗通膨並減少流動性。這項轉變體現在美國10年期公債殖利率的走強上，該殖利率已從上次減半前的0.685%攀升至目前的4.6%。

Dollar Strengthening: A Reflection of Hawkish Monetary Policy

美元走強：鷹派貨幣政策的體現

The Dollar Index, a measure of the U.S. dollar's strength against a basket of six currencies, stood near the 100 level prior to the last halving. However, the combination of higher interest rates and a hawkish monetary policy outlook has pushed the Dollar Index to approximately 106.

衡量美元兌一籃子六種貨幣強勢程度的美元指數在上次減半前處於 100 水平附近。然而，較高的利率和鷹派的貨幣政策前景共同推動美元指數升至 106 左右。

Economic Resilience Amidst Interest Rate Hikes

升息期間的經濟韌性

Despite restrictive interest rates, the U.S. economy has demonstrated resilience, recording growth of 4.9% and 3.4% in the last two quarters of 2023. Nevertheless, inflation remains elevated, with consumer price inflation rising to 3.5% in March 2024. This persistent inflation, coupled with a strong labor market and robust economic growth, limits the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy.

儘管利率受到限制，美國經濟仍表現出韌性，2023 年最後兩個季度分別增長4.9% 和3.4%。持續的通膨，再加上強勁的勞動力市場和強勁的經濟成長，限制了聯準會放鬆貨幣政策的能力。

Cryptocurrency Market Response: A Hesitant Reaction

加密貨幣市場反應：猶豫不決

The contrasting macroeconomic backdrop provides a compelling explanation for the cryptocurrency market's subdued performance despite the impending halving. While Bitcoin reached a peak of $73,750 in March 2024, supported by a surge in Bitcoin spot ETF investments, high interest rates continue to weigh on non-interest-bearing cryptocurrencies.

儘管即將減半，但對比鮮明的宏觀經濟背景為加密貨幣市場的低迷表現提供了令人信服的解釋。儘管在比特幣現貨 ETF 投資激增的支撐下，比特幣於 2024 年 3 月達到了 73,750 美元的峰值，但高利率繼續對無息加密貨幣構成壓力。

Market Movements: A Surge in Bitcoin, Ethereum Lags

市場走勢：比特幣飆升，以太坊落後

The halving euphoria has resulted in Bitcoin experiencing overnight gains of 3.7% and year-to-date gains of 54%, currently trading at $64,959. In contrast, Ethereum (ETH) has recorded a modest overnight gain of 2%, but remains 37% below its all-time high at its current price of $3,101.

減半的狂熱導致比特幣隔夜上漲 3.7%，年初至今上漲 54%，目前交易價格為 64,959 美元。相比之下，以太幣 (ETH) 隔夜小幅上漲 2%，但仍比歷史高點 3,101 美元低 37%。

Other notable altcoin performances include:

其他值得注意的山寨幣表現包括：

• Solana (SOL): Overnight jump of over 8%
• Cardano (ADA): Close to 6% gain in the past 24 hours
• BNB (BNB): Over 3% increase
• Toncoin (TON): More than 3% overnight gain
• Dogecoin (DOGE): Over 3% gain in the past 24 hours
• XRP (XRP): Overnight increase of over 1%

Overall, the majority of the top 100 cryptocurrencies are witnessing overnight gains.

Solana (SOL)：隔夜漲幅超過 8% Cardano (ADA)：過去 24 小時漲幅接近 6% BNB (BNB)：漲幅超過 3% Toncoin (TON)：隔夜漲幅超過 3%Dogecoin (DOGE)：超過 3過去24小時漲幅百分比XRP (XRP)：隔夜漲幅超過1% 總體而言，前100 名加密貨幣中的大多數都見證了隔夜漲幅。

For up-to-date cryptocurrency news and analysis, visit rttnews.com.

有關最新的加密貨幣新聞和分析，請造訪 rttnews.com。

Author: Avila Sebastian

作者：阿維拉·塞巴斯蒂安

Staff Writer, RTTNews

RTT新聞特約撰稿人

Contact: editorial@rttnews.com

聯絡方式： editorial@rttnews.com