比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：数字资产会达到 150 万美元还是会迎来“糟糕的结局”？

哪位投资者对比特币的看法可能是正确的：凯茜·伍德 (Cathie Wood) 还是沃伦·巴菲特 (Warren Buffett)？下面，我将阐述加密货币的看涨和看跌立场，并解释我认为从长远来看哪种情况更有可能对比特币产生影响。

Cathie Wood and Warren Buffett are two of the most successful investors in the world, but they have very different views on cryptocurrency. Wood is bullish on Bitcoin and other digital assets, while Buffett has warned that they will “come to a bad ending.”

凯茜·伍德和沃伦·巴菲特是世界上最成功的两位投资者，但他们对加密货币的看法截然不同。伍德看好比特币和其他数字资产，而巴菲特则警告称它们将“迎来一个糟糕的结局”。

So, who is more likely to be right about Bitcoin in the long run? Here's a look at both sides of the argument.

那么，从长远来看，谁对比特币的看法更有可能是正确的呢？下面来看看争论的双方。

The case for Bitcoin rising to $1.5 million

比特币涨至 150 万美元的理由

Bitcoin has already generated terrific returns for investors during the past five years, rising by about 1,000%. The digital currency has been gaining ground with investors as a way to store value and diversify.

过去五年里，比特币已经为投资者带来了丰厚的回报，上涨了约 1,000%。作为一种存储价值和多元化的方式，数字货币一直受到投资者的欢迎。

Bullish investors see crypto as a new type of asset class and believe that as more companies and individual investors add crypto to their portfolios, that can help drive Bitcoin's valuation even higher. Even if investors allocate a small percentage of the money in their portfolio to crypto, that can lead to a surge in demand, pushing the value of the digital currency significantly higher in the future.

看涨的投资者将加密货币视为一种新型资产类别，并相信随着越来越多的公司和个人投资者将加密货币添加到他们的投资组合中，这可以帮助推高比特币的估值。即使投资者将投资组合中的一小部分资金分配给加密货币，也可能导致需求激增，从而在未来大幅推高数字货币的价值。

The launch of many spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds last year also made it easier than ever for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin, without having to set up a digital wallet or use a crypto trading platform. As there are more ways to invest in crypto, it will help encourage more investors to add it to their portfolios and, thus, result in a rising valuation for Bitcoin.

去年许多现货比特币交易所交易基金的推出也使投资者比以往任何时候都更容易获得比特币，而无需设置数字钱包或使用加密货币交易平台。由于投资加密货币的方式越来越多，这将有助于鼓励更多投资者将其添加到他们的投资组合中，从而导致比特币的估值上升。

The incoming Trump administration may also put into place more crypto-friendly policies and even set up a federal reserve of Bitcoin, which may result in other governments following suit. Such moves may also entice more of the general public to invest in Bitcoin.

即将上任的特朗普政府还可能出台更多对加密货币友好的政策，甚至设立比特币联邦储备，这可能会导致其他政府效仿。此类举措也可能吸引更多公众投资比特币。

The case for another Bitcoin crash

再次比特币崩盘的案例

For Bitcoin to come to a "bad ending" wouldn't necessarily have to mean that the cryptocurrency will fall to zero. But it would definitely suggest that a big crash may be in the cards, similar to the dot-com crash, which occurred in the early 2000s.

对于比特币来说，“糟糕的结局”并不一定意味着加密货币将跌至零。但这肯定表明可能会发生一场大崩溃，类似于 2000 年代初发生的互联网泡沫崩溃。

The reason it could happen is that cryptocurrencies are incredibly volatile and speculative investments. While Bitcoin has soared in recent years, a lot of that has to do with the growing popularity of meme stocks and high-risk investments. Many retail investors have been willing to bet on risky plays in the hopes of winning big or simply proving short-sellers wrong. One example is car rental company Hertz, which filed for bankruptcy in 2020. Retail investors piled money into the stock, sending it soaring. It has emerged from bankruptcy but remains a highly risky investment today.

这种情况可能发生的原因是加密货币是一种极其不稳定的投机性投资。尽管比特币近年来飙升，但这很大程度上与模因股票和高风险投资的日益流行有关。许多散户投资者一直愿意押注于高风险的投资，希望能赢得大笔奖金，或者只是证明卖空者是错误的。一个例子是汽车租赁公司赫兹 (Hertz)，该公司于 2020 年申请破产。散户投资者纷纷涌入该股，导致其股价飙升。它已经摆脱了破产，但如今仍然是一项高风险的投资。

A lot depends on retail investors and how willing they are to keep putting money into a high-risk investment such as Bitcoin, which has limited use cases and doesn't truly solve a problem for the economy. It rises in value for speculative reasons; many investors simply buy it because they believe it will increase in value, which is what the greater fool theory is all about. And that's a dangerous way to look at any investment.

很大程度上取决于散户投资者以及他们是否愿意继续将资金投入比特币等高风险投资，而比特币的用例有限，并且不能真正解决经济问题。它因投机原因而升值；许多投资者购买它只是因为他们相信它会增值，这就是更大的傻瓜理论的全部内容。以这种方式看待任何投资都是危险的。

There is a high degree of risk that the excitement surrounding Bitcoin could wane and retail investors pull their money out of the speculative investment in the future, potentially to follow the next big thing. And should that happen, a big crash, or a "bad ending" could follow.

围绕比特币的热情可能会减弱，散户投资者可能会从未来的投机性投资中撤资，以追随下一个重大事件，这是一个很高的风险。如果发生这种情况，一场大崩溃或“糟糕的结局”可能会随之而来。

Which scenario is more likely?

哪种情况更有可能发生？

The scenario I think is more likely to play out over the next five years is that a big crypto crash will come. It may not spell the end of the digital asset, but it looks like a more probable scenario than assuming the digital currency will generate 10-fold or 15-fold returns from here on out.

我认为未来五年更有可能发生的情况是，一场巨大的加密货币崩盘将会到来。这可能并不意味着数字资产的终结，但它看起来比假设数字货币从现在开始产生 10 倍或 15 倍回报的可能性更大。

The excitement is high around crypto these days but you can say the same about many other types of high-risk investments in tech and artificial intelligence. Hype alone isn't going to continue to drive valuations higher forever and sooner or later a correction could take place. The same can be true about Bitcoin. It's a highly risky and speculative investment and as investors become more concerned about the economy or there's some unfavorable crypto-related news, a sell-off could ensue.

如今，人们对加密货币非常兴奋，但对于科技和人工智能领域的许多其他类型的高风险投资也可以说同样的情况。仅凭炒作不会永远继续推高估值，迟早会发生调整。比特币也是如此。这是一项高风险和投机性的投资，随着投资者越来越担心经济或出现一些不利的加密货币相关消息，抛售可能会随之而来。

Investors should tread carefully as Bitcoin is not a suitable investment for the majority of portfolios. There are many solid growth stocks to consider instead, which come with much less risk and that can still generate fantastic returns for investors in the long run.

投资者应谨慎行事，因为比特币并不适合大多数投资组合。相反，有许多稳健的成长型股票值得考虑，这些股票的风险要小得多，而且从长远来看仍然可以为投资者带来丰厚的回报。