比特幣 (BTC) 價格預測：數位資產會達到 150 萬美元還是會迎來「糟糕的結局」？

哪位投資者對比特幣的看法可能是正確的：凱西‧伍德 (Cathie Wood) 還是華倫‧巴菲特 (Warren Buffett)？下面，我將闡述加密貨幣的看漲和看跌立場，並解釋我認為從長遠來看哪種情況更有可能對比特幣產生影響。

Cathie Wood and Warren Buffett are two of the most successful investors in the world, but they have very different views on cryptocurrency. Wood is bullish on Bitcoin and other digital assets, while Buffett has warned that they will “come to a bad ending.”

凱西·伍德和華倫·巴菲特是世界上最成功的兩位投資者，但他們對加密貨幣的看法截然不同。伍德看好比特幣和其他數位資產，而巴菲特則警告它們將「迎來一個糟糕的結局」。

So, who is more likely to be right about Bitcoin in the long run? Here's a look at both sides of the argument.

那麼，從長遠來看，誰對比特幣的看法更有可能是正確的呢？下面來看看爭論的雙方。

The case for Bitcoin rising to $1.5 million

比特幣漲至 150 萬美元的理由

Bitcoin has already generated terrific returns for investors during the past five years, rising by about 1,000%. The digital currency has been gaining ground with investors as a way to store value and diversify.

在過去五年裡，比特幣已經為投資者帶來了豐厚的回報，上漲了約 1,000%。作為一種儲存價值和多元化的方式，數位貨幣一直受到投資者的歡迎。

Bullish investors see crypto as a new type of asset class and believe that as more companies and individual investors add crypto to their portfolios, that can help drive Bitcoin's valuation even higher. Even if investors allocate a small percentage of the money in their portfolio to crypto, that can lead to a surge in demand, pushing the value of the digital currency significantly higher in the future.

看漲的投資者將加密貨幣視為一種新型資產類別，並相信隨著越來越多的公司和個人投資者將加密貨幣添加到他們的投資組合中，這可以幫助推高比特幣的估值。即使投資者將投資組合中的一小部分資金分配給加密貨幣，也可能導致需求激增，從而在未來大幅推高數位貨幣的價值。

The launch of many spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds last year also made it easier than ever for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin, without having to set up a digital wallet or use a crypto trading platform. As there are more ways to invest in crypto, it will help encourage more investors to add it to their portfolios and, thus, result in a rising valuation for Bitcoin.

去年許多現貨比特幣交易所交易基金的推出也使投資者比以往任何時候都更容易獲得比特幣，而無需設置數位錢包或使用加密貨幣交易平台。由於投資加密貨幣的方式越來越多，這將有助於鼓勵更多投資者將其添加到他們的投資組合中，從而導致比特幣的估值上升。

The incoming Trump administration may also put into place more crypto-friendly policies and even set up a federal reserve of Bitcoin, which may result in other governments following suit. Such moves may also entice more of the general public to invest in Bitcoin.

即將上任的川普政府也可能推出更多對加密貨幣友善的政策，甚至設立比特幣聯邦儲備，可能會導致其他政府跟進。此類舉措也可能吸引更多民眾投資比特幣。

The case for another Bitcoin crash

再次比特幣崩盤的案例

For Bitcoin to come to a "bad ending" wouldn't necessarily have to mean that the cryptocurrency will fall to zero. But it would definitely suggest that a big crash may be in the cards, similar to the dot-com crash, which occurred in the early 2000s.

對於比特幣來說，「糟糕的結局」並不一定意味著加密貨幣將跌至零。但這肯定表明可能會發生一場大崩潰，類似於 2000 年代初發生的網路泡沫崩潰。

The reason it could happen is that cryptocurrencies are incredibly volatile and speculative investments. While Bitcoin has soared in recent years, a lot of that has to do with the growing popularity of meme stocks and high-risk investments. Many retail investors have been willing to bet on risky plays in the hopes of winning big or simply proving short-sellers wrong. One example is car rental company Hertz, which filed for bankruptcy in 2020. Retail investors piled money into the stock, sending it soaring. It has emerged from bankruptcy but remains a highly risky investment today.

這種情況可能發生的原因是加密貨幣是一種極不穩定的投機性投資。儘管比特幣近年來飆升，但這很大程度上與迷因股票和高風險投資的日益普及有關。許多散戶投資者一直願意押注於高風險的投資，希望能贏得大筆獎金，或只是證明賣空者是錯的。一個例子是汽車租賃公司赫茲 (Hertz)，該公司於 2020 年申請破產。它已經擺脫了破產，但如今仍然是一項高風險的投資。

A lot depends on retail investors and how willing they are to keep putting money into a high-risk investment such as Bitcoin, which has limited use cases and doesn't truly solve a problem for the economy. It rises in value for speculative reasons; many investors simply buy it because they believe it will increase in value, which is what the greater fool theory is all about. And that's a dangerous way to look at any investment.

很大程度上取決於散戶投資者以及他們是否願意繼續將資金投入比特幣等高風險投資，而比特幣的用例有限，並且不能真正解決經濟問題。它因投機原因而升值；許多投資者購買它只是因為他們相信它會增值，這就是更大的傻瓜理論的全部內容。以這種方式看待任何投資都是危險的。

There is a high degree of risk that the excitement surrounding Bitcoin could wane and retail investors pull their money out of the speculative investment in the future, potentially to follow the next big thing. And should that happen, a big crash, or a "bad ending" could follow.

圍繞比特幣的熱情可能會減弱，散戶投資者可能會從未來的投機性投資中撤資，以追隨下一個重大事件，這是一個很高的風險。如果發生這種情況，一場大崩潰或「糟糕的結局」可能會隨之而來。

Which scenario is more likely?

哪種情況更有可能發生？

The scenario I think is more likely to play out over the next five years is that a big crypto crash will come. It may not spell the end of the digital asset, but it looks like a more probable scenario than assuming the digital currency will generate 10-fold or 15-fold returns from here on out.

我認為未來五年更有可能發生的情況是，一場巨大的加密貨幣崩盤將會到來。這可能並不意味著數位資產的終結，但它看起來比假設數位貨幣從現在開始產生 10 倍或 15 倍回報的可能性更大。

The excitement is high around crypto these days but you can say the same about many other types of high-risk investments in tech and artificial intelligence. Hype alone isn't going to continue to drive valuations higher forever and sooner or later a correction could take place. The same can be true about Bitcoin. It's a highly risky and speculative investment and as investors become more concerned about the economy or there's some unfavorable crypto-related news, a sell-off could ensue.

如今，人們對加密貨幣感到非常興奮，但對於科技和人工智慧領域的許多其他類型的高風險投資也可以說同樣的情況。光是炒作不會永遠繼續推高估值，遲早會發生調整。比特幣也是如此。這是一項高風險和投機性的投資，隨著投資者越來越擔心經濟或出現一些不利的加密貨幣相關消息，拋售可能會隨之而來。

Investors should tread carefully as Bitcoin is not a suitable investment for the majority of portfolios. There are many solid growth stocks to consider instead, which come with much less risk and that can still generate fantastic returns for investors in the long run.

投資者應謹慎行事，因為比特幣不適合大多數投資組合。相反，有許多穩健的成長型股票值得考慮，這些股票的風險要小得多，而且從長遠來看仍然可以為投資者帶來豐厚的回報。