比特币[BTC]价格合并，因为全球M2货币供应寄生虫

全球M2是包括货币市场基金在内的货币供应分类，是指美国，中国和欧元区等主要经济体的货币供应。

The global M2, a money supply classification that includes money market funds, refers to the money supply from major economies such as the U.S.A., China, and the Eurozone.

全球M2是包括货币市场基金在内的货币供应分类，是指美国，中国和欧元区等主要经济体的货币供应。

In a recent report by the macroeconomic research firm Real Vision, it was noted that the global M2 money supply went parabolic in 2025 while Bitcoin [BTC] went sideways.

在宏观经济研究公司真实愿景的最新报告中，人们指出的是，全球M2货币供应在2025年进行了抛物线，而比特币[BTC]侧面进行了。

Image: Global M2 Money Supply from Real Vision

图片：全球M2货币供应来自真实视觉

Historically, such divergences do not last long. Hence, there is a chance for Bitcoin to appreciate.

从历史上看，这种差异不会持续很长时间。因此，比特币有机会欣赏。

On the other hand, the trade war initiated by the U.S. has dented investor confidence. China’s retaliatory 34% tariff on the 2nd of April deepened tensions, affecting the crypto market as well.

另一方面，美国发起的贸易战使投资者的信心抑制了信心。 4月2日，中国的报复性34％的关税加剧了紧张局势，也影响了加密货币市场。

Assessing the bearish arguments for Bitcoin

评估比特币的看跌论点

The Bitcoin spot ETFs have been weak in recent days. The pessimistic macroeconomic outlook as a result of the ongoing trade wars was a factor here.

最近几天，比特币斑点ETF较弱。由于正在进行的贸易战而导致的悲观宏观经济前景是这里的一个因素。

Bitcoin spot ETF institutional inflows (7 days) (Source: Coinglass)

比特币斑点ETF机构流入（7天）（来源：coinglass）

Blackrock’s spot ETF IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF) saw some inflows in the past two weeks, but most other products have witnessed selling pressure recently. This outlined a bearish short-term sentiment.

贝莱德（Blackrock）的ETF IBIT（Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF）在过去两个星期中看到了一些流入，但大多数其他产品最近都目睹了销售压力。这概述了看跌的短期情绪。

Amidst this bearish backdrop, the CEO and Co-Founder of popular crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant stated that the “bull cycle is over”.

在这种看跌的背景中，Crypto Analytics公司的首席执行官兼联合创始人CryptoQuant表示“牛周期已经结束”。

Is the BTC bull cycle over?

BTC公牛周期结束了吗？

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Ki Young Ju explained the concept of the Realized Cap to support this argument.

在X（以前为Twitter）上的一篇文章中，Ki Young Ju解释了已实现的帽子的概念，以支持这一论点。

Realized Cap (365-day MA) vs. Market Cap (365-day MA) Delta Growth (Source: Ki Young Ju on X)

实现的上限（365天MA）与市值（365天MA）增长（来源：X上的Ki Young Ju）

The Market Cap of an asset is calculated by multiplying its circulating supply with its current market price.

资产的市值是通过将其循环供应量乘以当前的市场价格来计算的。

In contrast, the Realized Cap measures Bitcoin’s market capitalization based on the value at which each coin was last moved. This provides a more accurate view of the capital flowing into the Bitcoin market.

相比之下，实现的CAP根据上次移动的每个硬币的价值来衡量比特币的市值。这为流入比特币市场的资本提供了更准确的看法。

The analyst used 365-day Moving Averages (MA) for both Market Cap and Realized Cap to calculate the 365-day MA of the delta growth.

分析师使用365天的移动平均值（MA）进行了市值和实现的上限，以计算三角洲增长的365天MA。

A decline in this metric signals a rising realized cap paired with a falling market cap- a trend observed since November-December 2024.

该度量标准的下降信号标志着上升的上限，与2024年11月至12月以来观察到的趋势下降了。

Capital inflows failing to drive price gains indicate a bear market, and at the time of analysis, the delta growth’s MA was negative, aligning with bear market conditions.

资本流入未能推动价格上涨表明熊市，在分析时，三角洲增长的MA为负面，与熊市条件保持一致。

A similar situation occurred in December 2021, following Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of $69k and its subsequent decline. Ju also predicted that a short-term rally is unlikely, and this bearish phase could persist for another six months.

在比特币以前的6.9万美元的历史高点及其随后的下降之后，在2021年12月发生了类似的情况。 JU还预测，短期集会不太可能，这一看跌阶段可能会持续六个月。

Bitcoin price action (Source: CryptoQuant)

比特币价格动作（来源：加密量）

According to the realized cap data, the onset of another bear market appeared possible. Meanwhile, on the other hand, the exchange reserve of Tether [USDT] has halted its growth in recent months.

根据已实现的CAP数据，另一个熊市的发作似乎是可能的。同时，另一方面，Tether [USDT]的交易所在最近几个月停止了其增长。

Opposing these views, the rising global M2 mentioned earlier pointed toward rising buying power in the market.

反对这些观点，前面提到的全球M2的上升指出，市场上的购买力上升。

A slowdown in the Tether reserve growth accompanied the previous market top.

系绳储备增长放缓伴随着先前的市场顶级。

The data here suggested another bear market could be in progress, but it must be noted that none of the usual cycle-top metrics have yet reached overheated levels mirroring the previous cycle.

这里的数据表明，另一个熊市可能正在进行中，但必须指出的是，通常没有一个通常的循环顶部指标达到反映了上一个周期的过热水平。