比特幣[BTC]價格合併，因為全球M2貨幣供應寄生蟲

全球M2是包括貨幣市場基金在內的貨幣供應分類，是指美國，中國和歐元區等主要經濟體的貨幣供應。

The global M2, a money supply classification that includes money market funds, refers to the money supply from major economies such as the U.S.A., China, and the Eurozone.

全球M2是包括貨幣市場基金在內的貨幣供應分類，是指美國，中國和歐元區等主要經濟體的貨幣供應。

In a recent report by the macroeconomic research firm Real Vision, it was noted that the global M2 money supply went parabolic in 2025 while Bitcoin [BTC] went sideways.

在宏觀經濟研究公司真實願景的最新報告中，人們指出的是，全球M2貨幣供應在2025年進行了拋物線，而比特幣[BTC]側面進行了。

Image: Global M2 Money Supply from Real Vision

圖片：全球M2貨幣供應來自真實視覺

Historically, such divergences do not last long. Hence, there is a chance for Bitcoin to appreciate.

從歷史上看，這種差異不會持續很長時間。因此，比特幣有機會欣賞。

On the other hand, the trade war initiated by the U.S. has dented investor confidence. China’s retaliatory 34% tariff on the 2nd of April deepened tensions, affecting the crypto market as well.

另一方面，美國發起的貿易戰使投資者的信心抑制了信心。 4月2日，中國的報復性34％的關稅加劇了緊張局勢，也影響了加密貨幣市場。

Assessing the bearish arguments for Bitcoin

評估比特幣的看跌論點

The Bitcoin spot ETFs have been weak in recent days. The pessimistic macroeconomic outlook as a result of the ongoing trade wars was a factor here.

最近幾天，比特幣斑點ETF較弱。由於正在進行的貿易戰而導致的悲觀宏觀經濟前景是這裡的一個因素。

Bitcoin spot ETF institutional inflows (7 days) (Source: Coinglass)

比特幣斑點ETF機構流入（7天）（來源：coinglass）

Blackrock’s spot ETF IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF) saw some inflows in the past two weeks, but most other products have witnessed selling pressure recently. This outlined a bearish short-term sentiment.

貝萊德（Blackrock）的ETF IBIT（Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF）在過去兩個星期中看到了一些流入，但大多數其他產品最近都目睹了銷售壓力。這概述了看跌的短期情緒。

Amidst this bearish backdrop, the CEO and Co-Founder of popular crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant stated that the “bull cycle is over”.

在這種看跌的背景中，Crypto Analytics公司的首席執行官兼聯合創始人CryptoQuant表示“牛週期已經結束”。

Is the BTC bull cycle over?

BTC公牛週期結束了嗎？

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Ki Young Ju explained the concept of the Realized Cap to support this argument.

在X（以前為Twitter）上的一篇文章中，Ki Young Ju解釋了已實現的帽子的概念，以支持這一論點。

Realized Cap (365-day MA) vs. Market Cap (365-day MA) Delta Growth (Source: Ki Young Ju on X)

實現的上限（365天MA）與市值（365天MA）增長（來源：X上的Ki Young Ju）

The Market Cap of an asset is calculated by multiplying its circulating supply with its current market price.

資產的市值是通過將其循環供應量乘以當前的市場價格來計算的。

In contrast, the Realized Cap measures Bitcoin’s market capitalization based on the value at which each coin was last moved. This provides a more accurate view of the capital flowing into the Bitcoin market.

相比之下，實現的CAP根據每枚硬幣上次移動的價值來衡量比特幣的市值。這為流入比特幣市場的資本提供了更準確的看法。

The analyst used 365-day Moving Averages (MA) for both Market Cap and Realized Cap to calculate the 365-day MA of the delta growth.

分析師使用365天的移動平均值（MA）進行了市值和實現的上限，以計算三角洲增長的365天MA。

A decline in this metric signals a rising realized cap paired with a falling market cap- a trend observed since November-December 2024.

該度量標準的下降信號標誌著上升的上限，與2024年11月至12月以來觀察到的趨勢下降了。

Capital inflows failing to drive price gains indicate a bear market, and at the time of analysis, the delta growth’s MA was negative, aligning with bear market conditions.

資本流入未能推動價格上漲表明熊市，在分析時，三角洲增長的MA為負面，與熊市條件保持一致。

A similar situation occurred in December 2021, following Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of $69k and its subsequent decline. Ju also predicted that a short-term rally is unlikely, and this bearish phase could persist for another six months.

在比特幣以前的6.9萬美元的歷史高點及其隨後的下降之後，在2021年12月發生了類似的情況。 JU還預測，短期集會不太可能，這一看跌階段可能會持續六個月。

Bitcoin price action (Source: CryptoQuant)

比特幣價格動作（來源：加密量）

According to the realized cap data, the onset of another bear market appeared possible. Meanwhile, on the other hand, the exchange reserve of Tether [USDT] has halted its growth in recent months.

根據已實現的CAP數據，另一個熊市的發作似乎是可能的。同時，另一方面，Tether [USDT]的交易所在最近幾個月停止了其增長。

Opposing these views, the rising global M2 mentioned earlier pointed toward rising buying power in the market.

反對這些觀點，前面提到的全球M2的上升指出，市場上的購買力上升。

A slowdown in the Tether reserve growth accompanied the previous market top.

繫繩儲備增長放緩伴隨著先前的市場頂級。

The data here suggested another bear market could be in progress, but it must be noted that none of the usual cycle-top metrics have yet reached overheated levels mirroring the previous cycle.

這裡的數據表明，另一個熊市可能正在進行中，但必須指出的是，通常沒有一個通常的循環頂部指標達到反映了上一個週期的過熱水平。