VanEck 執行長 Jan van Eck 提供了比特幣價格目標，將美國財政赤字稱為“不可持續”

價值 1,180 億美元的全球資產管理公司 VanEck 的執行長 Jan van Eck 在接受 Mario Nawfal 採訪時，對比特幣的潛在軌跡進行了分析

Jan van Eck, CEO of $118 billion global asset manager VanEck, recently shared his analysis of Bitcoin’s potential trajectory, the US fiscal deficit, and the broader financial markets in an interview with Mario Nawfal.

價值 1,180 億美元的全球資產管理公司 VanEck 的執行長 Jan van Eck 最近在接受 Mario Nawfal 採訪時分享了他對比特幣潛在軌跡、美國財政赤字和更廣泛的金融市場的分析。

Here's a summary of his key insights:

以下是他的主要見解的摘要：

1. Bitcoin Price Target:

1. 比特幣價格目標：

Contrary to some hyper-bullish forecasts, van Eck provided a more conservative price target for Bitcoin for this bull run. He stated that their thesis is for Bitcoin to follow the halving cycle, which puts the price target for this cycle at around $150,000 to $180,000. However, he dismissed the notion that Bitcoin could reach $400,000 in the current cycle, suggesting that such a milestone might be achieved in the next cycle. According to him, in the next cycle, it will reach his target of half the value of gold, which is currently around $400,000, plus or minus depending on the price of gold.

與一些超級樂觀的預測相反，範埃克為這次牛市提供了更保守的比特幣價格目標。他表示，他們的論點是比特幣遵循減半週期，該週期的目標價約為 15 萬至 18 萬美元。不過，他否認了比特幣在當前週期中可能達到 40 萬美元的觀點，暗示這一里程碑可能會在下一個週期實現。據他介紹，在下一個週期，將達到他的黃金價值一半的目標，目前約為40萬美元，根據金價增減。

2. US Fiscal Deficit:

2.美國財政赤字：

Discussing the US fiscal deficit, van Eck identified it as "the elephant in the room" and a significant concern for the markets. He stated that we are spending money that's just completely unsustainable, and for any other country, they'd be headed towards bankruptcy.

在討論美國財政赤字時，範埃克將其視為“房間裡的大象”，也是市場的重大擔憂。他表示，我們花的錢是完全不可持續的，對其他國家來說，他們都會走向破產。

He outlined two prevailing schools of thought in Washington regarding fiscal policy. The first is the lobbyist perspective, which asserts that it’s impossible to cut spending significantly, resulting in minimal slowing of growth in the budget deficit. The second is the “extreme disruptors” approach, advocating for a $500 billion cut in government spending.

他概述了華盛頓有關財政政策的兩種流行學派。第一個是遊說者的觀點，它聲稱不可能大幅削減支出，從而導致預算赤字增長的放緩程度最小。第二種是「極端破壞者」做法，主張削減5,000億美元的政府開支。

Van Eck credited this figure to Vivek Ramaswamy, co-head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), stating, “They can effectuate that because there are 1,200 programs that are no longer authorized but still spending money, which means that they can terminate them with an executive order.” He described this target as “healthy” and “realistic,” although acknowledging it would not close the entire deficit, which was $1.8 trillion last year.

Van Eck 將這一數字歸功於政府效率部(DOGE) 聯合主管Vivek Ramaswamy，他表示：「他們可以實現這一目標，因為有1,200 個項目不再獲得授權，但仍在花錢，這意味著他們可以終止他們通過行政命令。他稱這一目標“健康”且“現實”，儘管他承認這不會消除去年 1.8 兆美元的全部赤字。

3. Market Reaction to Election:

3. 市場對選舉的反應：

Addressing the market's reaction to the election of President Trump, van Eck found it peculiar that despite a clear electoral outcome, there remains uncertainty about fiscal policy. He stated that we had a sweep by one political party, yet we don't really know what their fiscal policy is gonna be.

在談到市場對川普總統當選的反應時，範埃克發現奇怪的是，儘管選舉結果明確，但財政政策仍存在不確定性。他表示，我們被一個政黨橫掃，但我們並不真正知道他們的財政政策會是什麼。

He noted that the initial market reaction was negative for gold because of the possibility of government restructuring. According to him, the initial reaction was negative gold because the idea was, wow, maybe they will be able to restructure government. Never bet against Elon, right?

他指出，由於政府可能進行重組，市場最初的反應對黃金不利。據他說，最初的反應是看跌黃金，因為這個想法是，哇，也許他們將能夠重組政府。永遠不要與伊隆打賭，對吧？

4. Geopolitical Tensions:

4. 地緣政治緊張局勢：

Commenting on geopolitical tensions, particularly the situation in Ukraine and the approval of long-range missiles striking deep into Russian territory, van Eck stated that such events can impact markets. However, he cautioned, “The problem is geopolitical stuff is completely uninvestable. We never know what next headline is coming, and we don't know if it's going to be bullish or bearish.” He added that professional investors often choose to “do absolutely nothing” in response to geopolitical uncertainties.

範埃克在評論地緣政治緊張局勢，特別是烏克蘭局勢以及批准遠程飛彈深入俄羅斯領土時表示，此類事件可能會影響市場。然而，他警告說，「問題是地緣政治的東西完全無法投資。我們永遠不知道下一個標題是什麼，我們也不知道它是看漲還是看跌。他補充說，面對地緣政治的不確定性，專業投資者往往選擇「完全不採取任何行動」。

5. Catalysts for Bitcoin Price:

5. 比特幣價格的催化劑：

On the subject of institutional interest in Bitcoin and regulatory shifts, van Eck emphasized that the regulatory environment plays a crucial role. He stated that it really depends on the regulatory environment. He pointed out that while regions like Asia have seen regulators giving the green light, the US has been relatively quiet. However, he noted a recent uptick in interest, stating, “Now, with the new regime, suddenly the phone is ringing.”

關於比特幣的機構興趣和監管轉變，範埃克強調，監管環境扮演至關重要的角色。他表示，這實際上取決於監管環境。他指出，雖然亞洲等地區的監管機構已經開綠燈，但美國卻相對安靜。然而，他指出最近興趣有所上升，並表示：“現在，有了新政權，電話突然響了。”

Van Eck revealed his personal investment stance, stating, “That's why I have a huge personal investment in Bitcoin and gold.” He expressed optimism about Bitcoin's maturation process, likening it to a child growing up: “I would say it's sort of like a teenager, and what gets it to mature is new investor sets coming in.” He noted that while individual investors have embraced Bitcoin ETFs, the wealth management industry has yet to fully engage.

範埃克透露了他的個人投資立場，他表示：“這就是為什麼我個人對比特幣和黃金進行了大量投資。”他對比特幣的成熟過程表示樂觀，將其比作一個成長中的孩子：“我想說，它有點像一個青少年，而讓它成熟的是新投資者的加入。”他指出，雖然個人投資者已經接受了比特幣 ETF，但財富管理產業尚未充分參與。

6. Bitcoin Correlation to Traditional Markets:

6. 比特幣與傳統市場的相關性：

Addressing the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets, particularly the NASDAQ, van Eck admitted concern: “The thing that worried me the most […] Bitcoin's correlation to the NASDAQ was high.” He explained that this high correlation made Bitcoin less attractive to professional investors who were already overexposed to mega-cap tech stocks. However, he remains hopeful that Bitcoin's correlation will diminish: “Rooting for and expecting that its correlation will go back to zero, which it has been for the long term.”

在談到比特幣與傳統市場（尤其是納斯達克）之間的相關性時，範埃克承認了擔憂：「最讓我擔心的事情[……]比特幣與納斯達克的相關性很高。他解釋說，這種高度相關性降低了比特幣對已經過度投資大型科技股的專業投資者的吸引力。然而，他仍然對比特幣的相關性將會減弱抱有希望：“支持並期望其相關性將回到零，從長遠來看，這一直是零。”