VanEck 首席执行官 Jan van Eck 提供了比特币价格目标，将美国财政赤字称为“不可持续”

价值 1180 亿美元的全球资产管理公司 VanEck 的首席执行官 Jan van Eck 在接受 Mario Nawfal 采访时，对比特币的潜在轨迹进行了分析

Jan van Eck, CEO of $118 billion global asset manager VanEck, recently shared his analysis of Bitcoin’s potential trajectory, the US fiscal deficit, and the broader financial markets in an interview with Mario Nawfal.

价值 1180 亿美元的全球资产管理公司 VanEck 的首席执行官 Jan van Eck 最近在接受 Mario Nawfal 采访时分享了他对比特币潜在轨迹、美国财政赤字和更广泛的金融市场的分析。

Here's a summary of his key insights:

以下是他的主要见解的摘要：

1. Bitcoin Price Target:

1. 比特币价格目标：

Contrary to some hyper-bullish forecasts, van Eck provided a more conservative price target for Bitcoin for this bull run. He stated that their thesis is for Bitcoin to follow the halving cycle, which puts the price target for this cycle at around $150,000 to $180,000. However, he dismissed the notion that Bitcoin could reach $400,000 in the current cycle, suggesting that such a milestone might be achieved in the next cycle. According to him, in the next cycle, it will reach his target of half the value of gold, which is currently around $400,000, plus or minus depending on the price of gold.

与一些超级乐观的预测相反，范埃克为这次牛市提供了更为保守的比特币价格目标。他表示，他们的论点是比特币遵循减半周期，该周期的价格目标约为 15 万至 18 万美元。不过，他否认了比特币在当前周期可能达到 40 万美元的观点，暗示这一里程碑可能会在下一个周期实现。据他介绍，在下一个周期，将达到他的黄金价值一半的目标，目前约为40万美元，根据金价增减。

2. US Fiscal Deficit:

2.美国财政赤字：

Discussing the US fiscal deficit, van Eck identified it as "the elephant in the room" and a significant concern for the markets. He stated that we are spending money that's just completely unsustainable, and for any other country, they'd be headed towards bankruptcy.

在讨论美国财政赤字时，范埃克将其视为“房间里的大象”，也是市场的重大担忧。他表示，我们花的钱是完全不可持续的，对于任何其他国家来说，他们都会走向破产。

He outlined two prevailing schools of thought in Washington regarding fiscal policy. The first is the lobbyist perspective, which asserts that it’s impossible to cut spending significantly, resulting in minimal slowing of growth in the budget deficit. The second is the “extreme disruptors” approach, advocating for a $500 billion cut in government spending.

他概述了华盛顿有关财政政策的两种流行思想流派。第一个是游说者的观点，它声称不可能大幅削减支出，从而导致预算赤字增长的放缓程度最小。第二种是“极端破坏者”做法，主张削减5000亿美元的政府开支。

Van Eck credited this figure to Vivek Ramaswamy, co-head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), stating, “They can effectuate that because there are 1,200 programs that are no longer authorized but still spending money, which means that they can terminate them with an executive order.” He described this target as “healthy” and “realistic,” although acknowledging it would not close the entire deficit, which was $1.8 trillion last year.

Van Eck 将这一数字归功于政府效率部 (DOGE) 联席主管 Vivek Ramaswamy，他表示：“他们可以实现这一目标，因为有 1,200 个项目不再获得授权，但仍在花钱，这意味着他们可以终止他们通过行政命令。”他称这一目标“健康”且“现实”，尽管他承认这不会消除去年 1.8 万亿美元的全部赤字。

3. Market Reaction to Election:

3. 市场对选举的反应：

Addressing the market's reaction to the election of President Trump, van Eck found it peculiar that despite a clear electoral outcome, there remains uncertainty about fiscal policy. He stated that we had a sweep by one political party, yet we don't really know what their fiscal policy is gonna be.

在谈到市场对特朗普总统当选的反应时，范埃克发现奇怪的是，尽管选举结果明确，但财政政策仍然存在不确定性。他表示，我们被一个政党横扫，但我们并不真正知道他们的财政政策会是什么。

He noted that the initial market reaction was negative for gold because of the possibility of government restructuring. According to him, the initial reaction was negative gold because the idea was, wow, maybe they will be able to restructure government. Never bet against Elon, right?

他指出，由于政府可能进行重组，市场最初的反应对黄金不利。据他说，最初的反应是看跌黄金，因为这个想法是，哇，也许他们将能够重组政府。永远不要与埃隆打赌，对吧？

4. Geopolitical Tensions:

4. 地缘政治紧张局势：

Commenting on geopolitical tensions, particularly the situation in Ukraine and the approval of long-range missiles striking deep into Russian territory, van Eck stated that such events can impact markets. However, he cautioned, “The problem is geopolitical stuff is completely uninvestable. We never know what next headline is coming, and we don't know if it's going to be bullish or bearish.” He added that professional investors often choose to “do absolutely nothing” in response to geopolitical uncertainties.

范埃克在评论地缘政治紧张局势，特别是乌克兰局势以及批准远程导弹深入俄罗斯领土时表示，此类事件可能会影响市场。然而，他警告说，“问题是地缘政治的东西完全无法投资。我们永远不知道下一个标题是什么，我们也不知道它是看涨还是看跌。”他补充说，面对地缘政治的不确定性，专业投资者往往选择“完全不采取任何行动”。

5. Catalysts for Bitcoin Price:

5. 比特币价格的催化剂：

On the subject of institutional interest in Bitcoin and regulatory shifts, van Eck emphasized that the regulatory environment plays a crucial role. He stated that it really depends on the regulatory environment. He pointed out that while regions like Asia have seen regulators giving the green light, the US has been relatively quiet. However, he noted a recent uptick in interest, stating, “Now, with the new regime, suddenly the phone is ringing.”

关于比特币的机构兴趣和监管转变，范埃克强调，监管环境起着至关重要的作用。他表示，这实际上取决于监管环境。他指出，虽然亚洲等地区的监管机构已经开绿灯，但美国却相对安静。然而，他指出最近兴趣有所上升，并表示：“现在，有了新政权，电话突然响了。”

Van Eck revealed his personal investment stance, stating, “That's why I have a huge personal investment in Bitcoin and gold.” He expressed optimism about Bitcoin's maturation process, likening it to a child growing up: “I would say it's sort of like a teenager, and what gets it to mature is new investor sets coming in.” He noted that while individual investors have embraced Bitcoin ETFs, the wealth management industry has yet to fully engage.

范埃克透露了他的个人投资立场，他表示：“这就是为什么我个人对比特币和黄金进行了大量投资。”他对比特币的成熟过程表示乐观，将其比作一个成长中的孩子：“我想说，它有点像一个青少年，而让它成熟的是新投资者的加入。”他指出，虽然个人投资者已经接受了比特币 ETF，但财富管理行业尚未充分参与。

6. Bitcoin Correlation to Traditional Markets:

6. 比特币与传统市场的相关性：

Addressing the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets, particularly the NASDAQ, van Eck admitted concern: “The thing that worried me the most […] Bitcoin's correlation to the NASDAQ was high.” He explained that this high correlation made Bitcoin less attractive to professional investors who were already overexposed to mega-cap tech stocks. However, he remains hopeful that Bitcoin's correlation will diminish: “Rooting for and expecting that its correlation will go back to zero, which it has been for the long term.”

在谈到比特币与传统市场（尤其是纳斯达克）之间的相关性时，范埃克承认了担忧：“最让我担心的事情[……]比特币与纳斯达克的相关性很高。”他解释说，这种高度相关性降低了比特币对已经过度投资大型科技股的专业投资者的吸引力。然而，他仍然对比特币的相关性将会减弱抱有希望：“支持并期望其相关性将回到零，从长远来看，这一直是零。”