管理 3,000 萬美元投資基金的三名人工智慧人士表示，比特幣 (BTC) 將升至 14 萬美元

Intelligence Alpha 的投資委員會由三名人工智慧組成，該基金的執行長試圖不插手他們的事。

A $30 million fund leaves all investment decisions to be made by artificial intelligence (AI).

3000 萬美元的基金讓人工智慧 (AI) 做出所有投資決策。

The firm, named Intelligent Alpha, has a staff that includes founder and CEO Doug Clinton, a few programmers and contractors, and a trio of AIs — OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini and Anthropic’s Claude.

這家名為Intelligent Alpha的公司的員工包括創始人兼執行長道格·克林頓(Doug Clinton)、一些程式設計師和承包商，以及三個人工智慧——OpenAI的ChatGPT、谷歌的Gemini和Anthropic的Claude。

The AI triumvirate makes up the firm’s investment committee and so far, it’s performing exceptionally well.

人工智慧三巨頭組成了該公司的投資委員會，到目前為止，其表現非常出色。

“Some of the AI’s best calls have been shorts,” Clinton told CoinDesk in an interview. “It was short on Boeing earlier this year, before that door blew off the 737 MAX [in January]. And AI was actually short on the stock for that reason — because it thought there would be quality issues with the plane.”

「人工智慧的一些最佳預測都是空頭，」柯林頓在接受 CoinDesk 採訪時表示。 「今年早些時候，在 737 MAX 的艙門被炸毀之前（1 月），波音公司出現了短缺。由於這個原因，人工智慧實際上缺乏庫存——因為它認為這架飛機會存在品質問題。

While the firm has focused on traditional finance thus far and mostly kept away from crypto, Clinton said he started experimenting with bitcoin (BTC) specifically in the last five months. The objective: for AI to set useful targets to trade the world’s top cryptocurrency.

儘管該公司迄今一直專注於傳統金融，基本上遠離加密貨幣，但柯林頓表示，他特別是在過去五個月開始嘗試比特幣（BTC）。目標：讓人工智慧設定有用的目標來交易世界頂級加密貨幣。

“In the bull case — which was a Trump win and a more favorable regulatory environment — AI saw that bitcoin could maybe go to $140,000,” Clinton said. “Maybe that's the scenario we're working toward right now.”

「在多頭市場的情況下——川普獲勝並且監管環境更有利——人工智慧認為比特幣可能會漲到 14 萬美元，」柯林頓說。 “也許這就是我們現在正在努力實現的場景。”

How it works

它是如何運作的

Many firms now use AI to enhance human processes, to help analysts process data and think in different ways. But Clinton’s method is to give responsibility to the AI trio and stay out of its way as much as possible when it comes to investment decisions.

許多公司現在使用人工智慧來增強人類流程，幫助分析師處理數據並以不同的方式思考。但柯林頓的方法是讓人工智慧三人組承擔責任，並在投資決策時盡可能不插手。

The process is relatively simple. If, for example, Intelligent Alpha is looking to build a large cap U.S. equity portfolio, the fund will curate a bunch of data about U.S. companies with large market capitalizations, like historical revenue and earning projections, and feed it to the AIs.

過程比較簡單。例如，如果Intelligent Alpha希望建立一個大型美國股票投資組合，該基金將整理大量有關美國大市值公司的數據，例如歷史收入和獲利預測，並將其提供給人工智慧。

The next step is to give a philosophical framework for the AIs to use. Clinton asks the AIs to step into the shoes of some of the most famous investors in the world — Warren Buffett, Stanley Druckenmiller, Cathie Wood — and apply their way of thinking to the portfolio at hand.

下一步是為人工智慧提供一個可以使用的哲學架構。柯林頓要求人工智慧站在世界上一些最著名投資者的立場上——華倫巴菲特、史丹利德魯肯米勒、凱西伍德——並將他們的思維方式應用到手頭上的投資組合中。

The triumvirate then produces a portfolio, which a human must double-check to make sure there aren’t any “hallucinations,” in Clinton’s words. For example, the AI may accidentally include a stock that was recently acquired, or the stock of a company with a small market cap.

然後，三巨頭會產生一個投資組合，人們必須仔細檢查該投資組合，以確保不存在任何用克林頓的話來說的「幻覺」。例如，人工智慧可能會意外地包含最近收購的股票，或市值較小的公司的股票。

“Other than that, we try not to really mess with the portfolios,” Clinton told CoinDesk. “As a human, I’ll sometimes look at the portfolios and think ‘Oh, this pick seems like a terrible idea.’ Other times I’ll see something really interesting and try to understand the logic. It’s kind of fun.”

「除此之外，我們盡量不要真正搞亂投資組合，」柯林頓告訴 CoinDesk。 “作為一個人，我有時會看著投資組合併想著’哦，這個選擇似乎是一個糟糕的主意。’”其他時候我會看到一些非常有趣的東西並嘗試理解其中的邏輯。這很有趣。

The process involves the three AIs explaining their reasoning to Clinton. Not only does it help him ascertain that the investments are aligned with the portfolio’s goals, but he says that models provide better portfolios when they’re forced to explain why they like specific stocks.

這個過程涉及三個人工智慧向柯林頓解釋他們的推理。這不僅幫助他確定投資與投資組合的目標一致，而且他表示，當他們被迫解釋為什麼喜歡特定股票時，模型可以提供更好的投資組合。

It often happens for the AIs to disagree. And their way of thinking changes as updates get rolled out. “It used to be the case that Claude was the most contrarian model in terms of the outputs, when we first started testing,” Clinton said. “Now I would say it’s ChatGPT.” And while Clinton has tested other AIs such as Grok or Lama AI, keeping the investment committee down to three AIs has proved to be the most efficient set-up.

AI 意見不一致的情況經常發生。隨著更新的推出，他們的思維方式也會改變。 「當我們第一次開始測試時，就輸出而言，克勞德曾經是最逆向的模型，」柯林頓說。 “現在我會說它是 ChatGPT。”儘管克林頓測試了 Grok 或 Lama AI 等其他人工智慧，但將投資委員會減少到三個人工智慧已被證明是最有效的設定。

Predicting the future

預測未來

Investors can gain exposure to Intelligent Alpha’s strategy through an exchange-traded fund, the Intelligent Livermore ETF, which launched in September and uses AI to build a global equity portfolio. More such funds are on the way, Clinton said.

投資人可以透過交易所交易基金Intelligent Livermore ETF了解Intelligent Alpha的策略，該基金於9月推出，利用人工智慧建構全球股票投資組合。柯林頓說，更多此類資金正在籌措中。

For the Livermore ETF, every financial quarter the models review world events and try to make predictions for the next three to six months. Five or six areas of opportunities are then identified (following the investment philosophies of the greats like Druckenmiller) and the portfolio gets built around these sectors.

對於利弗莫爾 ETF，每個財務季度的模型都會回顧世界事件並嘗試對未來三到六個月做出預測。然後確定五到六個機會領域（遵循德魯肯米勒等偉人的投資理念），並圍繞這些領域建立投資組合。

Having competing philosophies means the portfolio usually ends up being quite balanced. “In many cases they're looking at idiosyncratic opportunities,” Clinton said. “We haven't seen big issues where [the investment philosophies] are at odds, but even then, it would be like hedging.” The AIs themselves make the decisions on how to weigh the various philosophies found in the portfolio, depending on the areas they’re the most confident in.

擁有相互競爭的理念意味著投資組合通常最終會相當平衡。 「在很多情況下，他們正在尋找特殊的機會，」柯林頓說。 “我們還沒有看到[投資理念]發生衝突的大問題，但即便如此，這也就像對沖一樣。”人工智慧本身會根據他們最有信心的領域來決定如何權衡投資組合中發現的各種理念。

“AI has been, at least so far, really good at seeing forward,” Clinton said. “Right before we launched, it made a big bet on Asian stocks, specifically Chinese stocks, and that was right before [billionaire hedge fund manager] David Tepper went on CNBC in September and said that China was his biggest bet, that they were bringing out the bazooka for stimulus. And you know, Chinese stocks

「至少到目前為止，人工智慧確實非常善於預見未來，」柯林頓說。 「就在我們推出之前，它對亞洲股票，特別是中國股票下了很大的賭注，就在[億萬富翁對沖基金經理]大衛·泰珀(David Tepper) 9 月份在CNBC 上表示中國是在他最大的賭注之前，他們正在帶來拿出火箭筒尋求刺激。你知道，中國股票