管理 3000 万美元投资基金的三名人工智能人士表示，比特币 (BTC) 将升至 14 万美元

Intelligence Alpha 的投资委员会由三名人工智能组成，该基金的首席执行官试图不插手他们的事。

A $30 million fund leaves all investment decisions to be made by artificial intelligence (AI).

3000 万美元的基金让人工智能 (AI) 做出所有投资决策。

The firm, named Intelligent Alpha, has a staff that includes founder and CEO Doug Clinton, a few programmers and contractors, and a trio of AIs — OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini and Anthropic’s Claude.

这家名为Intelligent Alpha的公司的员工包括创始人兼首席执行官道格·克林顿(Doug Clinton)、一些程序员和承包商，以及三个人工智能——OpenAI的ChatGPT、谷歌的Gemini和Anthropic的Claude。

The AI triumvirate makes up the firm’s investment committee and so far, it’s performing exceptionally well.

人工智能三巨头组成了该公司的投资委员会，到目前为止，其表现非常出色。

“Some of the AI’s best calls have been shorts,” Clinton told CoinDesk in an interview. “It was short on Boeing earlier this year, before that door blew off the 737 MAX [in January]. And AI was actually short on the stock for that reason — because it thought there would be quality issues with the plane.”

“人工智能的一些最佳预测都是空头，”克林顿在接受 CoinDesk 采访时表示。 “今年早些时候，在 737 MAX 的舱门被炸毁之前（1 月份），波音公司出现了短缺。由于这个原因，人工智能实际上缺乏库存——因为它认为这架飞机会存在质量问题。”

While the firm has focused on traditional finance thus far and mostly kept away from crypto, Clinton said he started experimenting with bitcoin (BTC) specifically in the last five months. The objective: for AI to set useful targets to trade the world’s top cryptocurrency.

尽管该公司迄今为止一直专注于传统金融，并且基本上远离加密货币，但克林顿表示，他特别是在过去五个月里开始尝试比特币（BTC）。目标：让人工智能设定有用的目标来交易世界顶级加密货币。

“In the bull case — which was a Trump win and a more favorable regulatory environment — AI saw that bitcoin could maybe go to $140,000,” Clinton said. “Maybe that's the scenario we're working toward right now.”

“在牛市的情况下——特朗普获胜并且监管环境更有利——人工智能认为比特币可能会涨到 14 万美元，”克林顿说。 “也许这就是我们现在正在努力实现的场景。”

How it works

它是如何运作的

Many firms now use AI to enhance human processes, to help analysts process data and think in different ways. But Clinton’s method is to give responsibility to the AI trio and stay out of its way as much as possible when it comes to investment decisions.

许多公司现在使用人工智能来增强人类流程，帮助分析师处理数据并以不同的方式思考。但克林顿的方法是让人工智能三人组承担责任，并在投资决策时尽可能不插手。

The process is relatively simple. If, for example, Intelligent Alpha is looking to build a large cap U.S. equity portfolio, the fund will curate a bunch of data about U.S. companies with large market capitalizations, like historical revenue and earning projections, and feed it to the AIs.

过程比较简单。例如，如果Intelligent Alpha希望建立一个大型美国股票投资组合，该基金将整理大量有关美国大市值公司的数据，例如历史收入和盈利预测，并将其提供给人工智能。

The next step is to give a philosophical framework for the AIs to use. Clinton asks the AIs to step into the shoes of some of the most famous investors in the world — Warren Buffett, Stanley Druckenmiller, Cathie Wood — and apply their way of thinking to the portfolio at hand.

下一步是为人工智能提供一个可以使用的哲学框架。克林顿要求人工智能站在世界上一些最著名投资者的立场上——沃伦·巴菲特、斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒、凯西·伍德——并将他们的思维方式应用到手头的投资组合中。

The triumvirate then produces a portfolio, which a human must double-check to make sure there aren’t any “hallucinations,” in Clinton’s words. For example, the AI may accidentally include a stock that was recently acquired, or the stock of a company with a small market cap.

然后，三巨头会产生一个投资组合，人们必须仔细检查该投资组合，以确保不存在任何用克林顿的话来说的“幻觉”。例如，人工智能可能会意外地包含最近收购的股票，或者市值较小的公司的股票。

“Other than that, we try not to really mess with the portfolios,” Clinton told CoinDesk. “As a human, I’ll sometimes look at the portfolios and think ‘Oh, this pick seems like a terrible idea.’ Other times I’ll see something really interesting and try to understand the logic. It’s kind of fun.”

“除此之外，我们尽量不要真正搞乱投资组合，”克林顿告诉 CoinDesk。 “作为一个人，我有时会看着投资组合并想‘哦，这个选择似乎是一个糟糕的主意。’”其他时候我会看到一些非常有趣的东西并尝试理解其中的逻辑。这很有趣。”

The process involves the three AIs explaining their reasoning to Clinton. Not only does it help him ascertain that the investments are aligned with the portfolio’s goals, but he says that models provide better portfolios when they’re forced to explain why they like specific stocks.

该过程涉及三个人工智能向克林顿解释他们的推理。这不仅帮助他确定投资与投资组合的目标一致，而且他表示，当他们被迫解释为什么喜欢特定股票时，模型可以提供更好的投资组合。

It often happens for the AIs to disagree. And their way of thinking changes as updates get rolled out. “It used to be the case that Claude was the most contrarian model in terms of the outputs, when we first started testing,” Clinton said. “Now I would say it’s ChatGPT.” And while Clinton has tested other AIs such as Grok or Lama AI, keeping the investment committee down to three AIs has proved to be the most efficient set-up.

AI 意见不一致的情况经常发生。随着更新的推出，他们的思维方式也会发生变化。 “当我们第一次开始测试时，就输出而言，克劳德曾经是最逆向的模型，”克林顿说。 “现在我会说它是 ChatGPT。”尽管克林顿测试了 Grok 或 Lama AI 等其他人工智能，但将投资委员会减少到三个人工智能已被证明是最有效的设置。

Predicting the future

预测未来

Investors can gain exposure to Intelligent Alpha’s strategy through an exchange-traded fund, the Intelligent Livermore ETF, which launched in September and uses AI to build a global equity portfolio. More such funds are on the way, Clinton said.

投资者可以通过交易所交易基金Intelligent Livermore ETF了解Intelligent Alpha的策略，该基金于9月推出，利用人工智能构建全球股票投资组合。克林顿说，更多此类资金正在筹措中。

For the Livermore ETF, every financial quarter the models review world events and try to make predictions for the next three to six months. Five or six areas of opportunities are then identified (following the investment philosophies of the greats like Druckenmiller) and the portfolio gets built around these sectors.

对于利弗莫尔 ETF，每个财务季度的模型都会回顾世界事件并尝试对未来三到六个月做出预测。然后确定五到六个机会领域（遵循德鲁肯米勒等伟人的投资理念），并围绕这些领域建立投资组合。

Having competing philosophies means the portfolio usually ends up being quite balanced. “In many cases they're looking at idiosyncratic opportunities,” Clinton said. “We haven't seen big issues where [the investment philosophies] are at odds, but even then, it would be like hedging.” The AIs themselves make the decisions on how to weigh the various philosophies found in the portfolio, depending on the areas they’re the most confident in.

拥有相互竞争的理念意味着投资组合通常最终会相当平衡。 “在很多情况下，他们正在寻找特殊的机会，”克林顿说。 “我们还没有看到[投资理念]发生冲突的大问题，但即便如此，这也就像对冲一样。”人工智能本身会根据他们最有信心的领域来决定如何权衡投资组合中发现的各种理念。

“AI has been, at least so far, really good at seeing forward,” Clinton said. “Right before we launched, it made a big bet on Asian stocks, specifically Chinese stocks, and that was right before [billionaire hedge fund manager] David Tepper went on CNBC in September and said that China was his biggest bet, that they were bringing out the bazooka for stimulus. And you know, Chinese stocks

“至少到目前为止，人工智能确实非常善于预见未来，”克林顿说。 “就在我们推出之前，它对亚洲股票，特别是中国股票下了很大的赌注，就在[亿万富翁对冲基金经理]大卫·泰珀 (David Tepper) 9 月份在 CNBC 上表示中国是他最大的赌注之前，他们正在带来拿出火箭筒寻求刺激。你知道，中国股票