塑造加密貨幣產業未來的 8 個狀態和 6 個趨勢

在本文中，我將深入分析加密產業的 8 個關鍵狀態，提取市場發展的重要見解，並探討塑造加密產業未來的 6 個趨勢。

Author: @arndxt_xo

作者：@arndxt_xo

Compiled by: Vernacular Blockchain

編譯：白話區塊鏈

In this article, I will deeply analyze 8 key states of the crypto industry, extract important insights into market developments, and explore 6 trends that are shaping the future of the crypto industry.

在本文中，我將深入分析加密產業的 8 個關鍵狀態，提取市場發展的重要見解，並探討塑造加密產業未來的 6 個趨勢。

We’ll discuss everything from the rise of AI agents, to the resurgence of memecoin, to Bitcoin’s consolidation, and Solana’s explosive performance.

我們將討論一切，從人工智慧代理商的崛起，到 memecoin 的復興，到比特幣的整合，以及 Solana 的爆炸性表現。

Below, we break this down into eight key observations and six eye-catching trends that reveal key shifts in the market.

下面，我們將其分為八個關鍵觀察結果和六個引人注目的趨勢，揭示市場的關鍵變化。

1. 8 states of the crypto industry

1. 加密產業的8個狀態

The following figure is a brief summary of the catalog.

下圖是目錄的簡要總結。

1) The AI agent market is still small

1）AI代理市場仍較小

While Virtuals (an AI agent startup platform) has seen its market cap surge to around $4 billion, the total market cap of AI agents themselves is only around $1 billion. While AI agents have been one of the hottest topics lately, the market still has plenty of room to grow as adoption and interest continue to rise.

雖然 Virtuals（人工智慧代理新創平台）的市值已飆升至 40 億美元左右，但人工智慧代理本身的總市值僅為 10 億美元左右。雖然人工智慧代理是最近最熱門的話題之一，但隨著採用率和興趣的持續上升，市場仍有很大的成長空間。

2) The transaction volume of decentralized trading platforms (DEX) and centralized trading platforms (CEX) has surged

2）去中心化交易平台（DEX）和中心化交易平台（CEX）交易量激增

Perpetual DEX is particularly popular, and more and more projects have achieved multi-billion dollar valuations without relying on centralized trading platforms for listing. This is a big step towards a truly decentralized trading ecosystem, showing the broader prospects of DeFi.

永續DEX尤其受歡迎，越來越多的項目在不依賴中心化交易平台上市的情況下實現了數十億美元的估值。這是邁向真正去中心化交易生態系統的一大步，展現了 DeFi 更廣闊的前景。

3) Decentralized Science (DeSci) is gaining attention

3）去中心化科學（DeSci）受到關注

Interest in decentralized science (DeSci) has grown significantly, attracting more attention from developers and researchers. While some narratives (such as Liquid Restaking, BRC-20, Modularity, L2, and RWA) have weakened, the rapid rise of DeSci may mean new opportunities for innovation.

人們對去中心化科學（DeSci）的興趣顯著增長，吸引了開發人員和研究人員的更多關注。雖然一些敘述（例如 Liquid Restake、BRC-20、Modularity、L2 和 RWA）已經減弱，但 DeSci 的快速崛起可能意味著新的創新機會。

4) Bitcoin supply continues to decline on trading platforms

4）交易平台上的比特幣供應持續下降

The share of BTC (and ETH) on exchanges continues to decline, indicating that large and long-term holders are increasing their positions. Reduced supply on exchanges typically reduces selling pressure, driving bullish momentum in the market, especially for Bitcoin.

BTC（和ETH）在交易所的份額持續下降，顯示大量長期持有者正在增加部位。交易所供應量的減少通常會減輕拋售壓力，從而推動市場的看漲勢頭，尤其是比特幣。

5) Programmable Bitcoin through sBTC on Stacks

5) 透過 Stacks 上的 sBTC 編程比特幣

Stacks has launched sBTC, a 1:1 Bitcoin-backed asset designed to unlock about $2 trillion in Bitcoin liquidity for DeFi. sBTC holders can earn base yields (e.g., about 5% of Bitcoin yields) and can borrow on platforms like Zest, with an annualized yield of about 6%, and more investment opportunities are about to open up. This provides a practical way to "put Bitcoin to work," which may drive more Bitcoin-centric DeFi innovations.

Stacks 推出了 sBTC，這是一種 1:1 比特幣支援的資產，旨在為 DeFi 釋放約 2 兆美元的比特幣流動性。 sBTC持有者可以獲得基礎收益率（例如比特幣收益率的5%左右），並且可以在Zest等平台上借款，年化收益率約為6%，更多的投資機會即將開啟。這提供了一種「讓比特幣發揮作用」的實用方法，這可能會推動更多以比特幣為中心的 DeFi 創新。

6) Stablecoin supply exceeds $200 billion, a record high

6）穩定幣供應量突破2000億美元，創歷史新高

Stablecoin supply increases from $125 billion to $200 billion by early 2024. Annual stablecoin transaction volume has surpassed Visa, continuing to prove they are a trillion-dollar opportunity in the making.

到 2024 年初，穩定幣供應量將從 1,250 億美元增加到 2,000 億美元。

7) Monthly Crypto Funding Growth

7) 每月加密資金成長

Although still below the peak in 2021, the investment capital raised has increased significantly. Historically, capital inflows usually occur at market tops, and the current growth trend shows that we are still in the early stages of the growth cycle and have not yet reached the extreme optimism of the market.

儘管仍低於2021年的峰值，但籌集的投資資金已大幅增加。從歷史上看，資金流入通常發生在市場頂部，而目前的成長趨勢表明，我們仍處於成長週期的早期階段，尚未達到市場的極度樂觀。

8) Additional: Solana’s Rapid Rise

8) 補充：Solana 的快速崛起

In December 2024, Solana generated $43.1 billion in transaction fee revenue in a short period of time, more than all other L1s combined. Solana’s activity is comparable to Ethereum’s across multiple key metrics, and the upcoming Firedancer upgrade could further boost its scalability and network usage. It’s becoming increasingly clear that Ethereum and Solana can (and likely will) coexist in a multi-chain future.

2024 年 12 月，Solana 在短時間內產生了 431 億美元的交易費收入，超過所有其他 L1 的總和。 Solana 的活動在多個關鍵指標上與以太坊相當，即將推出的 Firedancer 升級可以進一步提高其可擴展性和網路使用率。越來越明顯的是，以太坊和 Solana 可以（而且可能）在多鏈的未來共存。

2. 6 narrative trends

2. 6大敘事趨勢

1) Bitcoin Consolidation and Potential Bottom

1）比特幣盤整和潛在底部

Bitcoin has been trading in a range of $94,000 to $95,000, with frequent dips below $94,000 and hitting $93,000, frustrating traders. Currently, the Bitcoin price is hovering around $97,000. The recent clustering around $94,000 suggests a possible bottom, but a retracement of $88,00 to $92,000 is still possible. If Bitcoin rises, altcoins are expected to perform better, similar to the 2021 bull run.

比特幣的交易價格一直在 94,000 美元至 95,000 美元之間，經常跌破 94,000 美元並觸及 93,000 美元，這讓交易者感到沮喪。目前，比特幣價格徘徊在 97,000 美元左右。最近聚集在 94,000 美元附近表明可能出現底部，但仍有可能回調 88,000 美元至 92,000 美元。如果比特幣上漲，山寨幣預計會表現更好，類似於 2021 年的牛市。

2) AI agents dominate market narratives

2）人工智慧代理主導市場敘述

Key Performers: VIRTUAL, an AI agent startup on the Base platform, doubled from $2.5 billion to $5 billion in just 10 days. Notable Projects in the Ecosystem: AIXBT: a Twitter-based agent, doubled from $300 million to $600 million. GAME: Close to $400 million market cap. AI16Z (Solana-based): doubled from $1 billion to $2.5 billion. Other notable projects include $ZEREBRO ($800 million), $

主要表現者：VIRTUAL 是 Base 平台上的人工智慧代理新創公司，在短短 10 天內就從 25 億美元翻了一番，達到 50 億美元。生態系統中的著名項目： AIXBT：基於 Twitter 的代理，從 3 億美元翻倍至 6 億美元。遊戲：市值接近 4 億美元。 AI16Z（基於 Solana）：從 10 億美元翻倍至 25 億美元。其他值得注意的項目包括 $ZEREBRO（8 億美元）、$