塑造加密货币行业未来的 8 个状态和 6 个趋势

在本文中，我将深入分析加密行业的 8 个关键状态，提取市场发展的重要见解，并探讨塑造加密行业未来的 6 个趋势。

Author: @arndxt_xo

作者：@arndxt_xo

Compiled by: Vernacular Blockchain

编译：白话区块链

In this article, I will deeply analyze 8 key states of the crypto industry, extract important insights into market developments, and explore 6 trends that are shaping the future of the crypto industry.

在本文中，我将深入分析加密行业的 8 个关键状态，提取市场发展的重要见解，并探讨塑造加密行业未来的 6 个趋势。

We’ll discuss everything from the rise of AI agents, to the resurgence of memecoin, to Bitcoin’s consolidation, and Solana’s explosive performance.

我们将讨论一切，从人工智能代理的崛起，到 memecoin 的复兴，到比特币的整合，以及 Solana 的爆炸性表现。

Below, we break this down into eight key observations and six eye-catching trends that reveal key shifts in the market.

下面，我们将其分为八个关键观察结果和六个引人注目的趋势，揭示市场的关键变化。

1. 8 states of the crypto industry

1. 加密行业的8个状态

The following figure is a brief summary of the catalog.

下图是目录的简要总结。

1) The AI agent market is still small

1）AI代理市场仍然较小

While Virtuals (an AI agent startup platform) has seen its market cap surge to around $4 billion, the total market cap of AI agents themselves is only around $1 billion. While AI agents have been one of the hottest topics lately, the market still has plenty of room to grow as adoption and interest continue to rise.

虽然 Virtuals（人工智能代理初创平台）的市值已飙升至 40 亿美元左右，但人工智能代理本身的总市值仅为 10 亿美元左右。虽然人工智能代理是最近最热门的话题之一，但随着采用率和兴趣的持续上升，市场仍有很大的增长空间。

2) The transaction volume of decentralized trading platforms (DEX) and centralized trading platforms (CEX) has surged

2）去中心化交易平台（DEX）和中心化交易平台（CEX）交易量激增

Perpetual DEX is particularly popular, and more and more projects have achieved multi-billion dollar valuations without relying on centralized trading platforms for listing. This is a big step towards a truly decentralized trading ecosystem, showing the broader prospects of DeFi.

永续DEX尤其受欢迎，越来越多的项目在不依赖中心化交易平台上市的情况下实现了数十亿美元的估值。这是迈向真正去中心化交易生态系统的一大步，展示了 DeFi 更广阔的前景。

3) Decentralized Science (DeSci) is gaining attention

3）去中心化科学（DeSci）受到关注

Interest in decentralized science (DeSci) has grown significantly, attracting more attention from developers and researchers. While some narratives (such as Liquid Restaking, BRC-20, Modularity, L2, and RWA) have weakened, the rapid rise of DeSci may mean new opportunities for innovation.

人们对去中心化科学（DeSci）的兴趣显着增长，吸引了开发人员和研究人员的更多关注。虽然一些叙述（例如 Liquid Restake、BRC-20、Modularity、L2 和 RWA）已经减弱，但 DeSci 的快速崛起可能意味着新的创新机会。

4) Bitcoin supply continues to decline on trading platforms

4）交易平台上的比特币供应持续下降

The share of BTC (and ETH) on exchanges continues to decline, indicating that large and long-term holders are increasing their positions. Reduced supply on exchanges typically reduces selling pressure, driving bullish momentum in the market, especially for Bitcoin.

BTC（和ETH）在交易所的份额持续下降，表明大量长期持有者正在增加头寸。交易所供应量的减少通常会减轻抛售压力，从而推动市场的看涨势头，尤其是比特币。

5) Programmable Bitcoin through sBTC on Stacks

5) 通过 Stacks 上的 sBTC 编程比特币

Stacks has launched sBTC, a 1:1 Bitcoin-backed asset designed to unlock about $2 trillion in Bitcoin liquidity for DeFi. sBTC holders can earn base yields (e.g., about 5% of Bitcoin yields) and can borrow on platforms like Zest, with an annualized yield of about 6%, and more investment opportunities are about to open up. This provides a practical way to "put Bitcoin to work," which may drive more Bitcoin-centric DeFi innovations.

Stacks 推出了 sBTC，这是一种 1:1 比特币支持的资产，旨在为 DeFi 释放约 2 万亿美元的比特币流动性。 sBTC持有者可以获得基础收益率（例如比特币收益率的5%左右），并可以在Zest等平台上借款，年化收益率约为6%，更多的投资机会即将开启。这提供了一种“让比特币发挥作用”的实用方法，这可能会推动更多以比特币为中心的 DeFi 创新。

6) Stablecoin supply exceeds $200 billion, a record high

6）稳定币供应量突破2000亿美元，创历史新高

Stablecoin supply increases from $125 billion to $200 billion by early 2024. Annual stablecoin transaction volume has surpassed Visa, continuing to prove they are a trillion-dollar opportunity in the making.

到 2024 年初，稳定币供应量将从 1250 亿美元增加到 2000 亿美元。稳定币年度交易量已超过 Visa，继续证明它们是正在形成的万亿美元机会。

7) Monthly Crypto Funding Growth

7) 每月加密资金增长

Although still below the peak in 2021, the investment capital raised has increased significantly. Historically, capital inflows usually occur at market tops, and the current growth trend shows that we are still in the early stages of the growth cycle and have not yet reached the extreme optimism of the market.

尽管仍低于2021年的峰值，但筹集的投资资金已大幅增加。从历史上看，资金流入通常发生在市场顶部，而目前的增长趋势表明，我们仍处于增长周期的早期阶段，尚未达到市场的极度乐观。

8) Additional: Solana’s Rapid Rise

8) 补充：Solana 的快速崛起

In December 2024, Solana generated $43.1 billion in transaction fee revenue in a short period of time, more than all other L1s combined. Solana’s activity is comparable to Ethereum’s across multiple key metrics, and the upcoming Firedancer upgrade could further boost its scalability and network usage. It’s becoming increasingly clear that Ethereum and Solana can (and likely will) coexist in a multi-chain future.

2024 年 12 月，Solana 在短时间内产生了 431 亿美元的交易费收入，超过所有其他 L1 的总和。 Solana 的活动在多个关键指标上与以太坊相当，即将推出的 Firedancer 升级可以进一步提高其可扩展性和网络使用率。越来越明显的是，以太坊和 Solana 可以（而且可能会）在多链的未来共存。

2. 6 narrative trends

2. 6大叙事趋势

1) Bitcoin Consolidation and Potential Bottom

1）比特币盘整和潜在底部

Bitcoin has been trading in a range of $94,000 to $95,000, with frequent dips below $94,000 and hitting $93,000, frustrating traders. Currently, the Bitcoin price is hovering around $97,000. The recent clustering around $94,000 suggests a possible bottom, but a retracement of $88,00 to $92,000 is still possible. If Bitcoin rises, altcoins are expected to perform better, similar to the 2021 bull run.

比特币的交易价格一直在 94,000 美元至 95,000 美元之间，经常跌破 94,000 美元并触及 93,000 美元，这让交易者感到沮丧。目前，比特币价格徘徊在 97,000 美元左右。最近聚集在 94,000 美元附近表明可能存在底部，但仍有可能回调 88,000 美元至 92,000 美元。如果比特币上涨，山寨币预计会表现更好，类似于 2021 年的牛市。

2) AI agents dominate market narratives

2）人工智能代理主导市场叙述

Key Performers: VIRTUAL, an AI agent startup on the Base platform, doubled from $2.5 billion to $5 billion in just 10 days. Notable Projects in the Ecosystem: AIXBT: a Twitter-based agent, doubled from $300 million to $600 million. GAME: Close to $400 million market cap. AI16Z (Solana-based): doubled from $1 billion to $2.5 billion. Other notable projects include $ZEREBRO ($800 million), $

主要表现者：VIRTUAL 是 Base 平台上的人工智能代理初创公司，在短短 10 天内就从 25 亿美元翻了一番，达到 50 亿美元。生态系统中的著名项目： AIXBT：基于 Twitter 的代理，从 3 亿美元翻倍至 6 亿美元。游戏：市值接近 4 亿美元。 AI16Z（基于 Solana）：从 10 亿美元翻倍至 25 亿美元。其他值得注意的项目包括 $ZEREBRO（8 亿美元）、$