Real Vision首席加密分析師Jamie Coutts在接下來的幾個月中對比特幣發出了明顯的警告

Coutt引用了他的新比特幣衍生品風險評分（DRS）模型，認為領先的加密貨幣價格面對了兩個尖銳的結果之一

Real Vision Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts has issued a stark warning for Bitcoin in the months ahead, as his new Bitcoin Derivatives Risk (DRS) model predicts two stark outcomes for the cryptocurrency’s price.

真正的遠見卓識的加密分析師傑米·庫特（Jamie Coutts）在未來幾個月內發布了對比特幣的明顯警告，因為他的新比特幣衍生品風險（DRS）模型預測了加密貨幣價格的兩個鮮明的結果。

As Coutts, known for his keen macroeconomic observations, highlights in commentary shared via X (formerly Twitter), his "first pass" at the DRS model, which integrates macroeconomic variables like global liquidity and risk appetite, indicates that the market's most recent instance of "Cat 5 euphoria"—which occurred in Q1 2024 and was later noted by Coutts himself (in February 2024)—has been followed by a pullback of only around 30%.

作為Coutts，以他敏銳的宏觀經濟觀察而聞名，在評論中通過X（以前是Twitter）共享的重點是他在DRS模型中的“第一次通過”，該模型整合了宏觀經濟變量，例如全球流動性和風險偏好，表明市場的最新實例是“ Cat 5 E -euphoria”的最新實例 - 在Q1 2024中，他是Q1 2024的後期。 2024年） - 隨後的回調僅為30％。

This, Coutts says, stands in stark contrast to a comparable episode in 2019, which saw a 50% decline—or 70% if the COVID shock is accounted for. However, Coutts maintains that 2019 provides a better barometer for the present market conditions than 2021.

Coutts說，這與2019年可比的發作形成鮮明對比，該發作的下降了50％，如果考慮到Covid Shock的話，則為70％。但是，Coutts堅持認為，2019年為當前市場條件提供了比2021年更好的晴雨表。

The reason, he explains, is that the 2019 rally occurred prior to a major global liquidity expansion, which began in March 2020 with the COVID crisis. By 2021, Bitcoin had already appreciated 12x off its lows while global liquidity expanded by 30%, presenting a vastly different macro environment.

他解釋說，原因是2019年的集會發生在全球大規模流動性擴張之前，該集會始於2020年3月，當時是當時的危機。到2021年，比特幣已經欣賞了12倍的低點，而全球流動性擴大了30％，其宏觀環境卻大不相同。

Assessing the market's present risk level, Coutts points out that Bitcoin's DRS metric has slid into the "low-risk quantile," a zone which Coutts says offers minimal predictive power for future prices.

COUTTS評估市場的當前風險水平，指出比特幣的DRS度量已滑入“低風險刻痕”，這是Coutts所說的區域，為未來價格提供了最低的預測能力。

“So, where are we now? Bitcoin's DRS is in the low-risk quantile—where predictive power is low. If Bitcoin has peaked, we should expect a brutal bleed lower. But the probability of that outcome is low, and the possibilities of a rebound remain high, in my view.”

“那麼，我們現在在哪裡？比特幣的DR處於低風險分位數中 - 預測能力很低。如果比特幣達到頂峰，我們應該期望殘酷的出血較低。但是，這種結果的可能性很低，而回彈的可能性仍然很高，我認為，我認為。”

Coutts went on to highlight that global liquidity may yet trigger another Bitcoin rally. According to his analysis, an upcoming inflection point in global liquidity—necessitated by the need to stimulate heavily indebted economies—will likely fuel the derivatives market, which Coutts calculates to be roughly four times bigger than the spot market.

Coutts繼續強調，全球流動性可能仍會觸發另一個比特幣集會。根據他的分析，全球流動性的即將到來的拐點（由於刺激重大負債經濟的需求所必需）可能會為衍生品市場提供助力，Coutts計算出的是大約是現貨市場的四倍。

“That's not my outlook though. Global liquidity is ready to inflect that will re-invigorate the derivatives market (4x Spot), potentially jettisoning Bitcoin to new ATHs by May (or end of Q2 for extra padding).’

“那不是我的前景。全球流動性準備好起來，將重新啟動衍生品市場（4倍），可能在5月（或五月份或第二季度結束以獲得額外的填充）將比特幣拋棄到新ATHS。”

Another key finding from Coutts' analysis is that the Global Liquidity Index has been contracting for an unprecedented period of time. As Coutts' data shows, this downturn in global liquidity began in mid-2020, following the massive stimulus measures deployed in response to the COVID crisis.

COUTTS分析的另一個關鍵發現是，全球流動性指數一直在史無前例的時間段內簽約。正如Coutts的數據所示，全球流動性的這種低迷始於2020年中期，此前響應於共同危機而採取了巨大的刺激措施。

“This marks the longest contraction of the Global Liquidity Index in Bitcoin's history—three years and counting (measured from the peak). Previous tightening episodes (2014–2016 and 2018–2019) lasted < 2yrs. How much longer will this go on?”

“這標誌著比特幣歷史上全球流動性指數最長的收縮 - 有三年和計數（從峰值計算）。先前的收緊發作（2014- 2016年和2018 - 2019年）持續了<2年。

According to Coutts, this state of affairs may force the authorities' hand into making a final, desperate bid to keep the system afloat with a renewed injection of liquidity.

據庫茨（Coutts）稱，這種狀況可能會迫使當局的手做出最終的，迫切希望通過重新註入流動性來使系統維持生計。

“We are approaching an inflection point. If nominal GDP continues lagging behind rising interest costs and if debt-to-GDP exceeds 100%, rendering refinancing impossible, then we'll likely see a final round of coordinated macroeconomic stimulus across the major economies (or Cat 5 euphoria!).”

“我們正在接近一個拐點。如果名義GDP繼續落後於利息成本的上升，如果債務到GDP超過100％，則不可能再融資，那麼我們可能會看到大型經濟體的最後一輪協調的宏觀經濟刺激（或Cat 5 Euphoria！）。”

Coutts adds that governments, especially those with debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 100%, would be hard-pressed to refinance if nominal GDP lags behind rising interest costs.

Coutts補充說，如果標稱GDP落後於利息成本上升，政府，尤其是債務與GDP比率超過100％的政府將很難再融資。

“The fiat, fractional-reserve, debt-based system will implode without liquidity injections. The spice must flow.”

“菲亞特，分數，基於債務的系統將在沒有流動性的情況下爆炸。香料必須流動。”

At press time, BTC trades at $87,703.

發稿時，BTC的交易價格為87,703美元。