Real Vision首席加密分析师Jamie Coutts在接下来的几个月中对比特币发出了明显的警告

Coutt引用了他的新比特币衍生品风险评分（DRS）模型，认为领先的加密货币价格面对了两个尖锐的结果之一

Real Vision Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts has issued a stark warning for Bitcoin in the months ahead, as his new Bitcoin Derivatives Risk (DRS) model predicts two stark outcomes for the cryptocurrency’s price.

真正的远见卓识的加密分析师杰米·库特（Jamie Coutts）在未来几个月内发布了对比特币的明显警告，因为他的新比特币衍生品风险（DRS）模型预测了加密货币价格的两个鲜明的结果。

As Coutts, known for his keen macroeconomic observations, highlights in commentary shared via X (formerly Twitter), his "first pass" at the DRS model, which integrates macroeconomic variables like global liquidity and risk appetite, indicates that the market's most recent instance of "Cat 5 euphoria"—which occurred in Q1 2024 and was later noted by Coutts himself (in February 2024)—has been followed by a pullback of only around 30%.

作为Coutts，以他敏锐的宏观经济观察而闻名，在评论中通过X（以前是Twitter）共享的重点是他在DRS模型中的“第一次通过”，该模型整合了宏观经济变量，例如全球流动性和风险胃口，表明市场的最新实例是“ Cat 5 euuphoria”的最新实例 - 在Q1 2024中，他本人在Q1 2024中又是在Q1 2024中。 2024年） - 随后的回调仅为30％。

This, Coutts says, stands in stark contrast to a comparable episode in 2019, which saw a 50% decline—or 70% if the COVID shock is accounted for. However, Coutts maintains that 2019 provides a better barometer for the present market conditions than 2021.

Coutts说，这与2019年可比的发作形成鲜明对比，该发作的下降了50％，如果考虑到Covid Shock的话，则为70％。但是，Coutts坚持认为，2019年为当前市场条件提供了比2021年更好的晴雨表。

The reason, he explains, is that the 2019 rally occurred prior to a major global liquidity expansion, which began in March 2020 with the COVID crisis. By 2021, Bitcoin had already appreciated 12x off its lows while global liquidity expanded by 30%, presenting a vastly different macro environment.

他解释说，原因是2019年的集会发生在全球大规模流动性扩张之前，该集会始于2020年3月，当时是当时的危机。到2021年，比特币已经欣赏了12倍的低点，而全球流动性扩大了30％，其宏观环境却大不相同。

Assessing the market's present risk level, Coutts points out that Bitcoin's DRS metric has slid into the "low-risk quantile," a zone which Coutts says offers minimal predictive power for future prices.

COUTTS评估市场的当前风险水平，指出比特币的DRS度量已滑入“低风险刻痕”，这是Coutts所说的区域，为未来价格提供了最低的预测能力。

“So, where are we now? Bitcoin's DRS is in the low-risk quantile—where predictive power is low. If Bitcoin has peaked, we should expect a brutal bleed lower. But the probability of that outcome is low, and the possibilities of a rebound remain high, in my view.”

“那么，我们现在在哪里？比特币的DR处于低风险分位数中 - 预测能力很低。如果比特币达到顶峰，我们应该期望残酷的出血较低。但是，这种结果的可能性很低，而回弹的可能性仍然很高，我认为，我认为。”

Coutts went on to highlight that global liquidity may yet trigger another Bitcoin rally. According to his analysis, an upcoming inflection point in global liquidity—necessitated by the need to stimulate heavily indebted economies—will likely fuel the derivatives market, which Coutts calculates to be roughly four times bigger than the spot market.

Coutts继续强调，全球流动性可能仍会触发另一个比特币集会。根据他的分析，全球流动性的即将到来的拐点（由于刺激重大负债经济的需求所必需）可能会为衍生品市场提供助力，Coutts计算出的是大约是现货市场的四倍。

“That's not my outlook though. Global liquidity is ready to inflect that will re-invigorate the derivatives market (4x Spot), potentially jettisoning Bitcoin to new ATHs by May (or end of Q2 for extra padding).’

“那不是我的前景。全球流动性准备好起来，将重新启动衍生品市场（4倍），可能在5月（或五月份或第二季度结束以获得额外的填充）将比特币抛弃到新ATHS。”

Another key finding from Coutts' analysis is that the Global Liquidity Index has been contracting for an unprecedented period of time. As Coutts' data shows, this downturn in global liquidity began in mid-2020, following the massive stimulus measures deployed in response to the COVID crisis.

COUTTS分析的另一个关键发现是，全球流动性指数一直在史无前例的时间段内签约。正如Coutts的数据所示，全球流动性的这种低迷始于2020年中期，此前响应于共同危机而采取了巨大的刺激措施。

“This marks the longest contraction of the Global Liquidity Index in Bitcoin's history—three years and counting (measured from the peak). Previous tightening episodes (2014–2016 and 2018–2019) lasted < 2yrs. How much longer will this go on?”

“这标志着比特币历史上全球流动性指数最长的收缩 - 有三年和计数（从峰值计算）。先前的收紧发作（2014- 2016年和2018 - 2019年）持续了<2年。

According to Coutts, this state of affairs may force the authorities' hand into making a final, desperate bid to keep the system afloat with a renewed injection of liquidity.

据库茨（Coutts）称，这种状况可能会迫使当局的手做出最终的，迫切希望通过重新注入流动性来使系统维持生计。

“We are approaching an inflection point. If nominal GDP continues lagging behind rising interest costs and if debt-to-GDP exceeds 100%, rendering refinancing impossible, then we'll likely see a final round of coordinated macroeconomic stimulus across the major economies (or Cat 5 euphoria!).”

“我们正在接近一个拐点。如果名义GDP继续落后于利息成本的上升，如果债务到GDP超过100％，则不可能再融资，那么我们可能会看到大型经济体的最后一轮协调的宏观经济刺激（或Cat 5 Euphoria！）。”

Coutts adds that governments, especially those with debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 100%, would be hard-pressed to refinance if nominal GDP lags behind rising interest costs.

Coutts补充说，如果标称GDP落后于利息成本上升，政府，尤其是债务与GDP比率超过100％的政府将很难再融资。

“The fiat, fractional-reserve, debt-based system will implode without liquidity injections. The spice must flow.”

“菲亚特，分数，基于债务的系统将在没有流动性的情况下爆炸。香料必须流动。”

At press time, BTC trades at $87,703.

发稿时，BTC的交易价格为87,703美元。