比特幣價格拒絕了本週的積極開端，並恢復了負回報

在本周積極的開端之後，BTC（BTC）在3月28日下降3.5％至84,120美元的盤中低點後，比特幣價格恢復為負回報。

After a positive start to the week, Bitcoin price (BTC) returned to negative returns as BTC dropped 3.5% to an intraday low of $84,120 on March 28. The price rejection occurred at the cusp of the descending trendline (black) and the upper range of the ascending channel pattern.

經過一周的積極開端，比特幣價格（BTC）恢復了負收益，因為BTC在3月28日下降了3.5％，在盤中低點為84,120美元。價格拒絕發生在下降趨勢線（黑色）和上升渠道模式的上限。

Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

比特幣1天圖表。資料來源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

On the daily chart, BTC is currently below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) again, and a potential close below the key indicator might trigger further downside.

在每日圖表上，BTC目前再次低於200天的指數移動平均線（EMA），而在關鍵指標以下的潛在可能會觸發不利方面。

  

Global liquidity expansion could help Bitcoin price

全球流動性的擴展可以幫助比特幣價格

Recent analysis from macroeconomic market analyst Capital Flows pointed out that Bitcoin could correct to the $72,000-$75,000 region if liquidity conditions remain unchanged. 

宏觀經濟市場分析師資本流量的最新分析指出，如果流動性狀況保持不變，比特幣可以糾正到72,000美元至75,000美元的地區。

Macro liquidity refers to the total capital available in the financial system that can easily flow into risk-on assets like equities and crypto but is influenced by factors like interest rates, U.S. Federal Reserve policies and market conditions.

宏流動性是指金融體系中可用的總資本，可以輕鬆流入股票和加密貨幣等風險資產，但受利率，美國美聯儲政策和市場狀況等因素的影響。

According to Capital Flows, Bitcoin is exhibiting a “greater convergence” with traditional risk assets, but it remains at the periphery of the risk curve. This implies that for capital to flow back into BTC, investors’ mindset must shift from focusing on less risky assets, such as bonds, to riskier assets like BTC or low-quality banks in the Russell index. The researcher said, 

根據資本流量，比特幣與傳統風險資產表現出“更大的融合”，但它仍然處於風險曲線的外圍。這意味著，要使資本回到BTC中，投資者的心態必須從專注於債券（例如債券）的風險較小的資產轉變為Russell指數中的BTC或低質量銀行等風險的資產。研究人員說，

"For BTC to rally again, we need to see a broader shift in liquidity preferences from fixed income to equities and eventually into peripherals assets like BTC or smaller tranches of the riskiest asset classes (e.g., preferreds, convertibles, high-yield, and the riskiest slice of the equity index). But for now, the bulk of the liquidity is still in the safest assets."

“要使BTC再次集會，我們需要看到，流動性偏好從固定收入到公平，最終轉變為最風險的資產類別（例如，偏愛，敞篷車，高收益，高收益，高收益和最風險的公平性索引），但現在，仍然是SafeStess的最風險的水平。

On the contrary, other analysts have pointed out that the rise of the Global M2 money supply could potentially trigger a BTC rally. The Global Liquidity chart, which monitors M2 growth from major central banks, has historically formed a correlation with Bitcoin's price movements.

相反，其他分析師指出，全球M2貨幣供應的興起可能會引發BTC集會。全球流動性圖表監視主要中央銀行的M2增長，歷史上與比特幣的價格變動形成了相關性。

Bitcoin and Global M2 Money supply correlation. Source: X.com

比特幣和全球M2貨幣供應相關性。資料來源：X.com

Colin Talks Crypto, a crypto commentator, said that the predictive correlation between M2 supply and BTC indicates a BTC rally around May 1, which might last two months.

Colin Talks Crypto是加密評論員，他說，M2供應和BTC之間的預測相關性表明BTC在5月1日左右舉行，這可能持續兩個月。

However, the key difference between macro liquidity and global M2 growth is that while M2 measures total money supply, macro liquidity highlights the ease at which capital can move into risk assets. For context, even if the M2 money supply rises, macro liquidity might remain the same if the money is allocated to low-risk assets. In light of that, Capital Flows said, 

但是，宏流動性和全球M2增長之間的主要區別在於，儘管M2衡量了總貨幣供應量，但宏流動性突出了資本可以進入風險資產的便利性。在上下文中，即使M2貨幣供應量增加，如果將資金分配給低風險資產，宏流動性也可能保持不變。鑑於此，資本流說：

"A key takeaway is that while the Global M2 growth is at an all-time high and shows no signs of slowing down, we're observing a shift in terms of liquidity across asset classes. As interest rates rise, there's a potential for a liquidity pullout from the riskiest asset classes, and we might see a further increase in macro liquidity as the Fed pivots to slashing interest rates."

“關鍵要點是，儘管全球M2的增長一直處於歷史最高水平，並且沒有放緩的跡象，但我們正在觀察到在資產類別的流動性方面發生了變化。隨著利率的上升，從風險最大的資產類別中有可能吸引流動性，我們可能會看到，由於對巨大流動性的進一步增加，因為在FED pivots削減了利率。”

Related: Why is Bitcoin price down today?

相關：為什麼比特幣價格今天下跌？

Bitcoin fills sub-$85K CME gap

比特幣填充$ 85​​K CME GAP

Bitcoin’s recent rally created a CME gap between $84,435 and $85,000. The CME Bitcoin futures gap indicates the difference between the closing price of BTC CME futures on Friday and the opening price on Sunday evening. The gaps get filled most of the time, and traders approach these levels from the point of resistance or support, depending on the market structure. 

比特幣最近的集會創造了84,435美元至85,000美元之間的CME差距。 CME比特幣期貨差距表明，週五BTC CME期貨的收盤價與週日晚上的開盤價格之間的差額。差距大部分時間都會填補，而貿易商則從抵抗或支持的位置達到這些水平，具體取決於市場結構。

Bitcoin CME gap chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

比特幣CME間隙圖。資料來源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

As illustrated in the chart, BTC price filled the CME gap before its daily close, which can lead to a short-term bounce. The CME gap is also aligned with a retest of the lower range of the ongoing ascending channel pattern, as mentioned earlier. 

如圖所示，BTC價格在每日閉合之前填補了CME差距，這可能會導致短期反彈。如前所述，CME間隙還與正在進行的上升通道模式的較低範圍的重新測試。

However, crypto trader HTL-NL pointed out the possibility of a long-term correction below, forming new lows in 2025. The trader showed immediate support at $76,700, which might be a minor retest region before prices drop below $74,000. 

但是，加密貨幣交易者HTL-NL指出了以下長期更正的可能性，在2025年形成了新的低點。交易員立即獲得了76,700美元的支持，這可能是一個較小的重新測試區，而價格下降到74,000美元以下。

Likewise, Crypto Chase, a technical analyst, noted that it is a “do or die” situation for Bitcoin. In an X post, the trader said, 

同樣，技術分析師Crypto Chase指出，這是比特幣的“做或死亡”情況。在X帖子中，交易員說，

Bitcoin 1-day analysis by Crypto Chase. Source: X.com

比特幣1天分析通過加密大通。資料來源：X.com

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should perform their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投資建議或建議。每個投資和交易舉動都涉及風險，讀者在做出決定時應進行自己的研究。