比特幣（BTC）價格預測：下降30％後，比特幣發現了救濟並集會

自歷史最高水平以來下降了30％之後，比特幣在3月11日發現了救濟，並開始了14天的集會。

Key Takeaways:

關鍵要點：

After a 30% drop since its all-time high, Bitcoin (BTC) found some relief on March 11 and began a 14-day rally. However, the rally was largely unsuccessful.

自歷史最高水平以來下降了30％之後，比特幣（BTC）在3月11日發現了一些緩解，並開始了14天的集會。但是，集會在很大程度上沒有成功。

After a 30% drop since its all-time high, Bitcoin (BTC) found some relief on March 11 and began a 14-day rally.

自歷史最高水平以來下降了30％之後，比特幣（BTC）在3月11日發現了一些緩解，並開始了14天的集會。

The rally was largely unsuccessful as the BTC price failed to break its corrective trend line and invalidated its bullish structure.

由於BTC價格未能打破其糾正趨勢線並使其看漲結構無效，因此集會在很大程度上沒有成功。

The BTC price trades on the edge of a breakdown after struggling to maintain its final support area before the yearly low.

BTC價格在努力在年度低點之前努力維持其最終支持區域後，處於故障的邊緣。

With Bitcoin at a make-or-break level, the key question is: Can the price muster enough strength and break out, or are new lows inevitable in 2025?

將比特幣處於損失或破壞水平的情況下，關鍵問題是：價格能夠提高足夠的強度和爆發，還是2025年不可避免的新低點？

Bitcoin’s Bearish Candlestick

比特幣的看跌燭台

The weekly time frame chart shows that Bitcoin created a bearish engulfing candlestick last week.

每週的時間範圍圖顯示，比特幣上週創造了一個看跌的吞噬燭台。

The candlestick ended a two-week rally after the price reached a bottom of $76,600 on March 11.

燭台在3月11日達到76,600美元的最低點後結束了為期兩週的集會。

Since the rally occurred after a massive decrease in the first week of March, last week’s candlestick confirms the bearish trend.

自從3月的第一周大幅下降之後，集會發生以來，上週的燭台證實了看跌趨勢。

Therefore, the previous increase was just a relief rally, and the Bitcoin price is now continuing its bearish trend toward new lows.

因此，以前的增長只是一個救濟集會，比特幣價格現在正在繼續朝著新的低點趨於看跌趨勢。

Technical indicators are bearish, suggesting the downward movement will continue toward new lows.

技術指標是看跌的，這表明向下移動將繼續朝著新的低點發展。

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell below 50, while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) made a bearish cross (black circles).

相對強度指數（RSI）低於50，而移動平均值收斂/散射（MACD）使看跌十字（黑色圓圈）。

If the downward movement continues, the next closest support area will be $69,000.

如果向下移動繼續，下一個最接近的支撐區將為69,000美元。

Bitcoin Breaks Down

比特幣分解

As predicted at the start of March, the Bitcoin price completed a relief rally starting on March 13. An ascending parallel channel contained the rally, implying that it was corrective.

正如3月初預測的那樣，比特幣價格從3月13日開始完成了一次浮雕集會。升到平行的渠道包含集會，這意味著它是糾正的。

A rejection from a descending resistance trend line (black) catalyzed the breakdown, creating several bearish daily candlesticks.

下降的阻力趨勢線（黑色）的拒絕促進了崩潰，從而產生了幾種看跌的每日燭台。

The BTC price trades inside the $81,160 support area, a breakdown below which can take Bitcoin to its yearly low of $76,600.

BTC價格交易在$ 81,160的支持區域內，這是一項以下細分，可以將比特幣的年度低至76,600美元。

Similarly to the weekly time frame, technical indicators suggest the BTC price will break down. The RSI is below 50, while the MACD is negative and has made a bearish cross.

與每週的時間範圍類似，技術指標表明BTC價格將分解。 RSI低於50，而MACD為負面，並且已成為看跌的十字架。

So, the weekly and daily time frame price action and indicator readings are all bearish, suggesting Bitcoin’s price will fall to new lows.

因此，每周和每天的時間框架價格動作和指標讀數都是看跌，這表明比特幣的價格將降至新的低點。

The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of the increase gives a target near $69,000, coinciding with the long-term support area.

1.61外部斐波那契的增長回收期可為目標提供接近69,000美元，與長期支撐區相吻合。

What Lies Ahead?

面前是什麼？

Bitcoin’s latest count suggests the price will continue falling in 2025. The count suggests BTC has completed a five-wave upward movement (green) starting in December 2022.

比特幣的最新計數表明，價格將在2025年繼續下跌。計數表明，BTC從2022年12月開始完成了五波向上的運動（綠色）。

The bearish divergence developing in the RSI during 2024 supports this count, as does the sub-wave count (orange).

在2024年，RSI中發生的看跌差異支持了這一計數，次波計數（橙色）也是如此。

If it is accurate, the wave count suggests Bitcoin has started a new five-wave downward movement (orange) and completed waves one and two (red).

如果是準確的，則波浪計數表明比特幣已經開始了新的五波向下運動（橙色），並完成了一個和第二（紅色）。

A preliminary target for the bottom of the decline is between the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement support levels at $51,378 and $62,437.

下降底部的初步目標是在0.5-0.618的斐波那契回撤支持水平為51,378美元和62,437美元之間。

The short-term chart aligns, showing a completed five-wave downward movement (black). The chart suggests a relief rally could follow, but the long-term trend is bearish.

短期圖表對齊，顯示完整的五波向下運動（黑色）。圖表表明可以進行救濟集會，但長期趨勢是看跌。

The RSI and MACD bullish divergences (orange) support the bullish Bitcoin prediction, especially when combined with the short-term double-bottom pattern.

RSI和MACD看漲差異（橙色）支持看漲比特幣的預測，尤其是與短期雙底模式結合使用時。

So, the Bitcoin price could rally toward the $84,200-$85,100 resistance area before resuming its downward movement for the rest of 2025.

因此，在恢復2025年其餘時間的下降之前，比特幣價格可能會朝著84,200- $ 85,100的電阻區域集會。

2025 Will be Bearish

2025將是看跌

Bitcoin’s price has trended downward since its all-time high of $109,588 on Jan.20.

自從1月20日以來，比特幣的價格一直在其歷史最高109,588美元以來一直下降。

While BTC rallied on March 11, it failed to maintain its momentum and broke down from its structure on March 28.

當BTC在3月11日集會時，它未能保持其勢頭，並於3月28日從結構中崩潰。

Long-term readings and the wave count suggest the bearish Bitcoin trend will continue in 2025.

長期讀數和波數表明看跌比特幣趨勢將在2025年繼續進行。