比特币（BTC）价格预测：下降30％后，比特币发现了救济并集会

自历史最高水平以来下降了30％之后，比特币在3月11日发现了救济，并开始了14天的集会。

Key Takeaways:

关键要点：

After a 30% drop since its all-time high, Bitcoin (BTC) found some relief on March 11 and began a 14-day rally. However, the rally was largely unsuccessful.

自历史最高水平以来下降了30％之后，比特币（BTC）在3月11日发现了一些缓解，并开始了14天的集会。但是，集会在很大程度上没有成功。

After a 30% drop since its all-time high, Bitcoin (BTC) found some relief on March 11 and began a 14-day rally.

自历史最高水平以来下降了30％之后，比特币（BTC）在3月11日发现了一些缓解，并开始了14天的集会。

The rally was largely unsuccessful as the BTC price failed to break its corrective trend line and invalidated its bullish structure.

由于BTC价格未能打破其纠正趋势线并使其看涨结构无效，因此集会在很大程度上没有成功。

The BTC price trades on the edge of a breakdown after struggling to maintain its final support area before the yearly low.

BTC价格在努力在年度低点之前努力维持其最终支持区域后，处于故障的边缘。

With Bitcoin at a make-or-break level, the key question is: Can the price muster enough strength and break out, or are new lows inevitable in 2025?

将比特币处于损失或破坏水平的情况下，关键问题是：价格能够提高足够的强度和爆发，还是2025年不可避免的新低点？

Bitcoin’s Bearish Candlestick

比特币的看跌烛台

The weekly time frame chart shows that Bitcoin created a bearish engulfing candlestick last week.

每周的时间范围图显示，比特币上周创造了一个看跌的吞噬烛台。

The candlestick ended a two-week rally after the price reached a bottom of $76,600 on March 11.

烛台在3月11日达到76,600美元的最低点后结束了为期两周的集会。

Since the rally occurred after a massive decrease in the first week of March, last week’s candlestick confirms the bearish trend.

自从3月的第一周大幅下降之后，集会发生以来，上周的烛台证实了看跌趋势。

Therefore, the previous increase was just a relief rally, and the Bitcoin price is now continuing its bearish trend toward new lows.

因此，以前的增长只是一个救济集会，比特币价格现在正在继续朝着新的低点趋于看跌趋势。

Technical indicators are bearish, suggesting the downward movement will continue toward new lows.

技术指标是看跌的，这表明向下移动将继续朝着新的低点发展。

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell below 50, while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) made a bearish cross (black circles).

相对强度指数（RSI）低于50，而移动平均值收敛/散射（MACD）使看跌十字（黑色圆圈）。

If the downward movement continues, the next closest support area will be $69,000.

如果向下移动继续，下一个最接近的支撑区将为69,000美元。

Bitcoin Breaks Down

比特币分解

As predicted at the start of March, the Bitcoin price completed a relief rally starting on March 13. An ascending parallel channel contained the rally, implying that it was corrective.

正如3月初预测的那样，比特币价格从3月13日开始完成了一次浮雕集会。升到平行的渠道包含集会，这意味着它是纠正的。

A rejection from a descending resistance trend line (black) catalyzed the breakdown, creating several bearish daily candlesticks.

下降的阻力趋势线（黑色）的拒绝促进了崩溃，从而产生了几种看跌的每日烛台。

The BTC price trades inside the $81,160 support area, a breakdown below which can take Bitcoin to its yearly low of $76,600.

BTC价格交易在$ 81,160的支持区域内，这是一项以下细分，可以将比特币的年度低至76,600美元。

Similarly to the weekly time frame, technical indicators suggest the BTC price will break down. The RSI is below 50, while the MACD is negative and has made a bearish cross.

与每周的时间范围类似，技术指标表明BTC价格将分解。 RSI低于50，而MACD为负面，并且已成为看跌的十字架。

So, the weekly and daily time frame price action and indicator readings are all bearish, suggesting Bitcoin’s price will fall to new lows.

因此，每周和每天的时间框架价格动作和指标读数都是看跌，这表明比特币的价格将降至新的低点。

The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of the increase gives a target near $69,000, coinciding with the long-term support area.

1.61外部斐波那契的增长回收期可为目标提供接近69,000美元，与长期支撑区相吻合。

What Lies Ahead?

面前是什么？

Bitcoin’s latest count suggests the price will continue falling in 2025. The count suggests BTC has completed a five-wave upward movement (green) starting in December 2022.

比特币的最新计数表明，价格将在2025年继续下跌。计数表明，BTC从2022年12月开始完成了五波向上的运动（绿色）。

The bearish divergence developing in the RSI during 2024 supports this count, as does the sub-wave count (orange).

在2024年，RSI中发生的看跌差异支持了这一计数，次波计数（橙色）也是如此。

If it is accurate, the wave count suggests Bitcoin has started a new five-wave downward movement (orange) and completed waves one and two (red).

如果是准确的，则波浪计数表明比特币已经开始了新的五波向下运动（橙色），并完成了一个和第二（红色）。

A preliminary target for the bottom of the decline is between the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement support levels at $51,378 and $62,437.

下降底部的初步目标是在0.5-0.618的斐波那契回撤支持水平为51,378美元和62,437美元之间。

The short-term chart aligns, showing a completed five-wave downward movement (black). The chart suggests a relief rally could follow, but the long-term trend is bearish.

短期图表对齐，显示完整的五波向下运动（黑色）。图表表明可以进行救济集会，但长期趋势是看跌。

The RSI and MACD bullish divergences (orange) support the bullish Bitcoin prediction, especially when combined with the short-term double-bottom pattern.

RSI和MACD看涨差异（橙色）支持看涨比特币的预测，尤其是与短期双底模式结合使用时。

So, the Bitcoin price could rally toward the $84,200-$85,100 resistance area before resuming its downward movement for the rest of 2025.

因此，在恢复2025年其余时间的下降之前，比特币价格可能会朝着84,200- $ 85,100的电阻区域集会。

2025 Will be Bearish

2025将是看跌

Bitcoin’s price has trended downward since its all-time high of $109,588 on Jan.20.

自从1月20日以来，比特币的价格一直在其历史最高109,588美元以来一直下降。

While BTC rallied on March 11, it failed to maintain its momentum and broke down from its structure on March 28.

当BTC在3月11日集会时，它未能保持其势头，并于3月28日从结构中崩溃。

Long-term readings and the wave count suggest the bearish Bitcoin trend will continue in 2025.

长期读数和波数表明看跌比特币趋势将在2025年继续进行。