比特币价格拒绝了本周的积极开端，并恢复了负回报

在本周积极的开端之后，BTC（BTC）在3月28日下降3.5％至84,120美元的盘中低点后，比特币价格恢复为负回报。

After a positive start to the week, Bitcoin price (BTC) returned to negative returns as BTC dropped 3.5% to an intraday low of $84,120 on March 28. The price rejection occurred at the cusp of the descending trendline (black) and the upper range of the ascending channel pattern.

经过一周的积极开端，比特币价格（BTC）恢复了负收益，因为BTC在3月28日下降了3.5％，在盘中低点为84,120美元。价格拒绝发生在下降趋势线（黑色）和上升渠道模式的上限。

Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

比特币1天图表。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

On the daily chart, BTC is currently below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) again, and a potential close below the key indicator might trigger further downside.

在每日图表上，BTC目前再次低于200天的指数移动平均线（EMA），而在关键指标以下的潜在可能会触发不利方面。

  

Global liquidity expansion could help Bitcoin price

全球流动性的扩展可以帮助比特币价格

Recent analysis from macroeconomic market analyst Capital Flows pointed out that Bitcoin could correct to the $72,000-$75,000 region if liquidity conditions remain unchanged. 

宏观经济市场分析师资本流量的最新分析指出，如果流动性状况保持不变，比特币可以纠正到72,000美元至75,000美元的地区。

Macro liquidity refers to the total capital available in the financial system that can easily flow into risk-on assets like equities and crypto but is influenced by factors like interest rates, U.S. Federal Reserve policies and market conditions.

宏流动性是指金融体系中可用的总资本，可以轻松流入股票和加密货币等风险资产，但受利率，美国美联储政策和市场状况等因素的影响。

According to Capital Flows, Bitcoin is exhibiting a “greater convergence” with traditional risk assets, but it remains at the periphery of the risk curve. This implies that for capital to flow back into BTC, investors’ mindset must shift from focusing on less risky assets, such as bonds, to riskier assets like BTC or low-quality banks in the Russell index. The researcher said, 

根据资本流量，比特币与传统风险资产表现出“更大的融合”，但它仍然处于风险曲线的外围。这意味着，要使资本回到BTC中，投资者的心态必须从专注于债券（例如债券）的风险较小的资产转变为Russell指数中的BTC或低质量银行等风险的资产。研究人员说，

"For BTC to rally again, we need to see a broader shift in liquidity preferences from fixed income to equities and eventually into peripherals assets like BTC or smaller tranches of the riskiest asset classes (e.g., preferreds, convertibles, high-yield, and the riskiest slice of the equity index). But for now, the bulk of the liquidity is still in the safest assets."

“要使BTC再次集会，我们需要看到，流动性偏好从固定收入到公平，最终转变为最风险的资产类别（例如，偏爱，敞篷车，高收益，高收益，高收益和最风险的公平性索引），但现在，仍然是SafeStess的最风险的水平。

On the contrary, other analysts have pointed out that the rise of the Global M2 money supply could potentially trigger a BTC rally. The Global Liquidity chart, which monitors M2 growth from major central banks, has historically formed a correlation with Bitcoin's price movements.

相反，其他分析师指出，全球M2货币供应的兴起可能会引发BTC集会。全球流动性图表监视主要中央银行的M2增长，历史上与比特币的价格变动形成了相关性。

Bitcoin and Global M2 Money supply correlation. Source: X.com

比特币和全球M2货币供应相关性。资料来源：X.com

Colin Talks Crypto, a crypto commentator, said that the predictive correlation between M2 supply and BTC indicates a BTC rally around May 1, which might last two months.

Colin Talks Crypto是加密评论员，他说，M2供应和BTC之间的预测相关性表明BTC在5月1日左右举行，这可能持续两个月。

However, the key difference between macro liquidity and global M2 growth is that while M2 measures total money supply, macro liquidity highlights the ease at which capital can move into risk assets. For context, even if the M2 money supply rises, macro liquidity might remain the same if the money is allocated to low-risk assets. In light of that, Capital Flows said, 

但是，宏流动性和全球M2增长之间的主要区别在于，尽管M2衡量了总货币供应量，但宏流动性突出了资本可以进入风险资产的便利性。在上下文中，即使M2货币供应量增加，如果将资金分配给低风险资产，宏流动性也可能保持不变。鉴于此，资本流说：

"A key takeaway is that while the Global M2 growth is at an all-time high and shows no signs of slowing down, we're observing a shift in terms of liquidity across asset classes. As interest rates rise, there's a potential for a liquidity pullout from the riskiest asset classes, and we might see a further increase in macro liquidity as the Fed pivots to slashing interest rates."

“关键要点是，尽管全球M2的增长一直处于历史最高水平，并且没有放缓的迹象，但我们正在观察到在资产类别的流动性方面发生了变化。随着利率的上升，从风险最大的资产类别中有可能吸引流动性，我们可能会看到，由于对巨大流动性的进一步增加，因为在FED pivots削减了利率。”

Related: Why is Bitcoin price down today?

相关：为什么比特币价格今天下跌？

Bitcoin fills sub-$85K CME gap

比特币填充$ 85​​K CME GAP

Bitcoin’s recent rally created a CME gap between $84,435 and $85,000. The CME Bitcoin futures gap indicates the difference between the closing price of BTC CME futures on Friday and the opening price on Sunday evening. The gaps get filled most of the time, and traders approach these levels from the point of resistance or support, depending on the market structure. 

比特币最近的集会创造了84,435美元至85,000美元之间的CME差距。 CME比特币期货差距表明，周五BTC CME期货的收盘价与周日晚上的开盘价格之间的差额。差距大部分时间都会填补，而贸易商则从抵抗或支持的位置达到这些水平，具体取决于市场结构。

Bitcoin CME gap chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

比特币CME间隙图。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

As illustrated in the chart, BTC price filled the CME gap before its daily close, which can lead to a short-term bounce. The CME gap is also aligned with a retest of the lower range of the ongoing ascending channel pattern, as mentioned earlier. 

如图所示，BTC价格在每日闭合之前填补了CME差距，这可能会导致短期反弹。如前所述，CME间隙还与正在进行的上升通道模式的较低范围的重新测试。

However, crypto trader HTL-NL pointed out the possibility of a long-term correction below, forming new lows in 2025. The trader showed immediate support at $76,700, which might be a minor retest region before prices drop below $74,000. 

但是，加密货币交易者HTL-NL指出了以下长期更正的可能性，在2025年形成了新的低点。交易员立即获得了76,700美元的支持，这可能是一个较小的重新测试区，而价格下降到74,000美元以下。

Likewise, Crypto Chase, a technical analyst, noted that it is a “do or die” situation for Bitcoin. In an X post, the trader said, 

同样，技术分析师Crypto Chase指出，这是比特币的“做或死亡”情况。在X帖子中，交易员说，

Bitcoin 1-day analysis by Crypto Chase. Source: X.com

比特币1天分析通过加密大通。资料来源：X.com

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should perform their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投资建议或建议。每个投资和交易举动都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应进行自己的研究。