利率維持不變，2025 年房地產市場將如何發展

房地產專家將資金押在明年下半年，因為現金利率最有可能開始下降。

Interest rates are unlikely to start coming down until the second half of next year, property experts say.

房地產專家表示，直到明年下半年，利率才可能開始下降。

But what does this mean for the property market in 2025 and will we continue to see more listings?

但這對 2025 年的房地產市場意味著什麼？

We spoke with some of the country’s top real estate experts for their thoughts on the year ahead.

我們訪問了一些國內頂尖的房地產專家，了解他們對未來一年的看法。

INTEREST RATES

利率

There’s still a few unknowns when it comes to predicting when the RBA will start to lower interest rates, says Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee.

雷·懷特（Ray White）首席經濟學家內裡達·科尼斯比（Nerida Conisbee）表示，在預測澳洲央行何時開始降低利率方面仍存在一些未知因素。

While inflation is roughly where the RBA wants it to be, there is no certainty that it will stay there following the results of the recent US presidential election, she says.

她表示，雖然通膨大致處於澳洲央行希望的水平，但在最近的美國總統選舉結果公佈後，不確定通膨是否會維持在該水平。

MORE: Rates call to spark chain reaction for housing

更多：利率上漲引發房屋連鎖反應

Aussies getting trapped in ‘mortgage prison’

澳洲人陷入“抵押貸款監獄”

If President-elect Donald Trump imposes high taxes on Chinese goods when he enters the Oval Office in the new year it could push up prices globally, fuelling inflation in Australia.

如果當選總統唐納德·川普在新年入主橢圓形辦公室時對中國商品徵收高額關稅，可能會推高全球價格，加劇澳洲的通貨膨脹。

On the other side of the coin, if the Australian economy starts to struggle and unemployment rises the Reserve Bank may need to cut rates sooner than anticipated, she says.

她表示，另一方面，如果澳洲經濟開始陷入困境且失業率上升，儲備銀行可能需要比預期更早降息。

And could our next interest rate cut depend on this man? Picture: Aaron Chown – Pool/Getty Images

我們的下一次降息能否取決於這個人？圖：Aaron Chown – Pool/Getty Images

Founder of McGrath Estate Agents, John McGrath says the first reduction is not likely to occur until the second half of the year.

麥格拉思地產代理公司的創辦人約翰·麥格拉思表示，第一次降價可能要到今年下半年才會發生。

“Sadly I don’t think we’re going to see any relief for mortgage holders for the next six months,” McGrath says. “There’s a number of things that Trump has suggested that could be inflationary in terms of his policies. I think everyone is just waiting to see what happens in general.”

「遺憾的是，我認為未來六個月抵押貸款持有人不會得到任何緩解，」麥格拉思說。 「川普提出的一些政策可能會導致通貨膨脹。我認為每個人都在等著看總體上會發生什麼。

He says when combined with cost of living pressures, high rates are causing challenges for mortgage holders, first home buyers and investors – particularly those in the sub-$1.5m demographic, resulting in a “tale of two markets” between those with and without high debt burdens.

他表示，與生活成本壓力相結合，高利率給抵押貸款持有者、首次置業者和投資者帶來挑戰，尤其是那些150 萬美元以下的人群，導致高利率和低利率人群之間出現“兩個市場的故事」。債務負擔。

John McGrath, founder of McGrath Estate Agents.

約翰‧麥格拉思 (John McGrath)，麥格拉思地產代理公司創辦人。

“We’re aware of it because a reasonable percentage of our listings are people that either have to sell, or if they don’t sell now, they’re going to have to sell over the next six months,” he says.

「我們意識到這一點，因為我們掛牌的房源中有相當一部分是必須出售的人，或者如果他們現在不出售，他們將不得不在接下來的六個月內出售，」他說。

“It (the cash rate) is going to need to come down one per cent or two before it gives real relief. But when the trajectory is downward, and people feel there’s a bit of pressure coming off each month, that will be very helpful.”

「它（現金利率）需要下降一到兩個百分點才能真正緩解壓力。但當軌跡向下時，人們會感到每個月都有一點壓力減輕，這將非常有幫助。

BUYER DEMAND

買家需求

Hotspotting director and real estate researcher Terry Ryder says he expects buyer demand to continue to be strong and localised in 2025.

Hotspotting 總監兼房地產研究員 Terry Ryder 表示，他預計 2025 年買家需求將繼續強勁且在地化。

Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee.

雷·懷特（Ray White）首席經濟學家內裡達·科尼斯比（Nerida Conisbee）。

“It’s very much dependent on local economies and those areas of the country where the parameters and the metrics are strong,” he says. “We’re going to see strong buyer demand, like we’ve seen this year, in Adelaide, Brisbane and some regional markets but not in others.”

「這在很大程度上取決於當地經濟以及參數和指標較強的國家地區，」他說。 “我們將在阿德萊德、布里斯班和一些區域市場看到強勁的買家需求，就像今年看到的那樣，但在其他市場則不然。”

Demand will continue to grow for attached dwellings, such as apartments and townhouses as well as regional centres and smaller cities for affordability and lifestyle benefits, he says.

他表示，為了提高負擔能力和改善生活方式，對公寓和聯排別墅等附屬住宅以及區域中心和較小城市的需求將繼續增長。

PROPERTY LISTINGS

房產清單

Listings have been climbing in recent months and are likely to continue into next year, Ryder says.

萊德說，近幾個月來，掛牌量一直在攀升，並且可能會持續到明年。

“The imbalance between supply and demand is correcting a little bit,” he says. “There’s no shortage of listings in the bigger cities. Darwin is the only capital city where listings have dropped recently.

「供需之間的不平衡正在稍微糾正，」他說。 “大城市不缺房源。達爾文是最近唯一房源數量下降的首府城市。

Listings have been on the rise this year. Picture: Jenny Evans/Getty Images

今年上市的房屋數量呈現上升趨勢。圖片：珍妮·埃文斯/蓋蒂圖片社

“Based on the figures from SQM Research, the listings are rising quite strongly in Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane.”

“根據 SQM Research 的數據，珀斯、阿德萊德和布里斯班的掛牌房源數量增長相當強勁。”

He says despite the recent growth, the listings in these three cities are below “what used to be considered normal but are starting to head in the right direction.”

他表示，儘管最近有所增長，但這三個城市的房源數量仍低於「過去被認為是正常的水平，但正開始朝著正確的方向發展」。

McGrath says he expects to see a “normalisation” of listings after the first quarter of next year to similar “healthy” levels seen during 2024.

麥格拉思表示，他預計明年第一季後上市量將「正常化」至 2024 年類似的「健康」水準。

“I think we’ll continue to see some listings coming on from people under duress in the first quarter,” he says. “Beyond that, I think we’ll find those that have had to sell, been forced to sell, will be on the market and sold.”

「我認為我們將在第一季繼續看到一些處於脅迫之下的人們上市，」他說。 “除此之外，我認為我們會發現那些不得不出售、被迫出售的物品將出現在市場上並被出售。”

Ballarat could be a good market to watch in 2025.

2025 年，巴拉瑞特可能是一個值得關注的好市場。

MARKETS TO WATCH IN 2025

2025 年值得關注的市場

Hotspotting director Terry Ryder says there is evidence that the Perth property boom “has passed its peak”, explaining the rate of price growth has been slowing as sales volumes reduce and listings increase. He says the following markets may have good price growth potential in 2025.

Hotspotting 總監 Terry Ryder 表示，有證據表明珀斯房地產繁榮“已經過了頂峰”，並解釋說，隨著銷量減少和掛牌房源增加，價格增長速度一直在放緩。他表示，2025 年以下市場可能具有良好的價格成長潛力。

Darwin – After being a poor performer for two years, Darwin is seeing more activity in its economy, has housing that is considered affordable by many people and has the highest rental yield out of all of the capitals.

達爾文—在經歷了兩年表現不佳之後，達爾文的經濟變得更加活躍，擁有許多人認為可以負擔得起的住房，並且在所有首府城市中擁有最高的租金收益率。

Perth may have already peaked.

珀斯可能已經達到頂峰。

Melbourne

墨爾本