利率维持不变，2025 年房地产市场将如何发展

房地产专家将资金押在明年下半年，因为现金利率最有可能开始下降。

Interest rates are unlikely to start coming down until the second half of next year, property experts say.

房地产专家表示，直到明年下半年，利率才可能开始下降。

But what does this mean for the property market in 2025 and will we continue to see more listings?

但这对 2025 年的房地产市场意味着什么？我们会继续看到更多的房源上市吗？

We spoke with some of the country’s top real estate experts for their thoughts on the year ahead.

我们采访了一些国内顶尖的房地产专家，了解他们对未来一年的看法。

INTEREST RATES

利率

There’s still a few unknowns when it comes to predicting when the RBA will start to lower interest rates, says Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee.

雷·怀特（Ray White）首席经济学家内里达·科尼斯比（Nerida Conisbee）表示，在预测澳大利亚央行何时开始降低利率方面，仍然存在一些未知因素。

While inflation is roughly where the RBA wants it to be, there is no certainty that it will stay there following the results of the recent US presidential election, she says.

她表示，虽然通胀大致处于澳大利亚央行希望的水平，但在最近美国总统选举结果公布后，不确定通胀是否会保持在该水平。

MORE: Rates call to spark chain reaction for housing

更多：利率上涨引发住房连锁反应

Aussies getting trapped in ‘mortgage prison’

澳洲人陷入“抵押贷款监狱”

If President-elect Donald Trump imposes high taxes on Chinese goods when he enters the Oval Office in the new year it could push up prices globally, fuelling inflation in Australia.

如果当选总统唐纳德·特朗普在新年入主椭圆形办公室时对中国商品征收高额关税，可能会推高全球价格，加剧澳大利亚的通货膨胀。

On the other side of the coin, if the Australian economy starts to struggle and unemployment rises the Reserve Bank may need to cut rates sooner than anticipated, she says.

她表示，另一方面，如果澳大利亚经济开始陷入困境且失业率上升，储备银行可能需要比预期更早降息。

And could our next interest rate cut depend on this man? Picture: Aaron Chown – Pool/Getty Images

我们的下一次降息能否取决于这个人？图片：Aaron Chown – Pool/Getty Images

Founder of McGrath Estate Agents, John McGrath says the first reduction is not likely to occur until the second half of the year.

麦格拉思地产代理公司的创始人约翰·麦格拉思表示，第一次降价可能要到今年下半年才会发生。

“Sadly I don’t think we’re going to see any relief for mortgage holders for the next six months,” McGrath says. “There’s a number of things that Trump has suggested that could be inflationary in terms of his policies. I think everyone is just waiting to see what happens in general.”

“遗憾的是，我认为未来六个月抵押贷款持有人不会得到任何缓解，”麦格拉思说。 “特朗普提出的一些政策可能会导致通货膨胀。我认为每个人都在等着看总体上会发生什么。”

He says when combined with cost of living pressures, high rates are causing challenges for mortgage holders, first home buyers and investors – particularly those in the sub-$1.5m demographic, resulting in a “tale of two markets” between those with and without high debt burdens.

他表示，与生活成本压力相结合，高利率给抵押贷款持有者、首次置业者和投资者带来挑战，尤其是那些 150 万美元以下的人群，导致高利率和低利率人群之间出现“两个市场的故事”。债务负担。

John McGrath, founder of McGrath Estate Agents.

约翰·麦格拉思 (John McGrath)，麦格拉思地产代理公司创始人。

“We’re aware of it because a reasonable percentage of our listings are people that either have to sell, or if they don’t sell now, they’re going to have to sell over the next six months,” he says.

“我们意识到这一点，因为我们挂牌的房源中有相当一部分是必须出售的人，或者如果他们现在不出售，他们将不得不在接下来的六个月内出售，”他说。

“It (the cash rate) is going to need to come down one per cent or two before it gives real relief. But when the trajectory is downward, and people feel there’s a bit of pressure coming off each month, that will be very helpful.”

“它（现金利率）需要下降一到两个百分点才能真正缓解压力。但当轨迹向下时，人们会感到每个月都有一点压力减轻，这将非常有帮助。”

BUYER DEMAND

买家需求

Hotspotting director and real estate researcher Terry Ryder says he expects buyer demand to continue to be strong and localised in 2025.

Hotspotting 总监兼房地产研究员 Terry Ryder 表示，他预计 2025 年买家需求将继续强劲且本地化。

Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee.

雷·怀特（Ray White）首席经济学家内里达·科尼斯比（Nerida Conisbee）。

“It’s very much dependent on local economies and those areas of the country where the parameters and the metrics are strong,” he says. “We’re going to see strong buyer demand, like we’ve seen this year, in Adelaide, Brisbane and some regional markets but not in others.”

“这在很大程度上取决于当地经济以及参数和指标较强的国家地区，”他说。 “我们将在阿德莱德、布里斯班和一些区域市场看到强劲的买家需求，就像今年看到的那样，但在其他市场则不然。”

Demand will continue to grow for attached dwellings, such as apartments and townhouses as well as regional centres and smaller cities for affordability and lifestyle benefits, he says.

他表示，为了提高负担能力和改善生活方式，对公寓和联排别墅等附属住宅以及区域中心和较小城市的需求将继续增长。

PROPERTY LISTINGS

房产清单

Listings have been climbing in recent months and are likely to continue into next year, Ryder says.

莱德说，近几个月来，挂牌量一直在攀升，并且可能会持续到明年。

“The imbalance between supply and demand is correcting a little bit,” he says. “There’s no shortage of listings in the bigger cities. Darwin is the only capital city where listings have dropped recently.

“供需之间的不平衡正在稍微纠正，”他说。 “大城市并不缺乏房源。达尔文是最近唯一一个房源数量下降的首府城市。

Listings have been on the rise this year. Picture: Jenny Evans/Getty Images

今年上市的房屋数量呈上升趋势。图片：珍妮·埃文斯/盖蒂图片社

“Based on the figures from SQM Research, the listings are rising quite strongly in Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane.”

“根据 SQM Research 的数据，珀斯、阿德莱德和布里斯班的挂牌房源数量增长相当强劲。”

He says despite the recent growth, the listings in these three cities are below “what used to be considered normal but are starting to head in the right direction.”

他表示，尽管最近有所增长，但这三个城市的房源数量仍低于“过去被认为是正常的水平，但正开始朝着正确的方向发展”。

McGrath says he expects to see a “normalisation” of listings after the first quarter of next year to similar “healthy” levels seen during 2024.

麦格拉思表示，他预计明年第一季度后上市量将“正常化”至 2024 年类似的“健康”水平。

“I think we’ll continue to see some listings coming on from people under duress in the first quarter,” he says. “Beyond that, I think we’ll find those that have had to sell, been forced to sell, will be on the market and sold.”

“我认为我们将在第一季度继续看到一些处于胁迫之下的人们上市，”他说。 “除此之外，我认为我们会发现那些不得不出售、被迫出售的东西将出现在市场上并被出售。”

Ballarat could be a good market to watch in 2025.

2025 年，巴拉瑞特可能是一个值得关注的好市场。

MARKETS TO WATCH IN 2025

2025 年值得关注的市场

Hotspotting director Terry Ryder says there is evidence that the Perth property boom “has passed its peak”, explaining the rate of price growth has been slowing as sales volumes reduce and listings increase. He says the following markets may have good price growth potential in 2025.

Hotspotting 总监 Terry Ryder 表示，有证据表明珀斯房地产繁荣“已经过了顶峰”，并解释说，随着销量减少和挂牌房源增加，价格增长速度一直在放缓。他表示，2025 年以下市场可能具有良好的价格增长潜力。

Darwin – After being a poor performer for two years, Darwin is seeing more activity in its economy, has housing that is considered affordable by many people and has the highest rental yield out of all of the capitals.

达尔文——在经历了两年表现不佳之后，达尔文的经济变得更加活跃，拥有许多人认为可以负担得起的住房，并且在所有首府城市中拥有最高的租金收益率。

Perth may have already peaked.

珀斯可能已经达到顶峰。

Melbourne

墨尔本