儘管需求創歷史新高，美國天然氣市場 2024 年仍將下滑

儘管需求創歷史新高，但美國天然氣市場預計將在 2024 年下滑，這是自 2016 年以來需求首次連續四年成長

The U.S. natural gas market is set to shrink in 2024 despite record demand, marking the first time demand has increased four years in a row since 2016, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.

美國能源資訊署(EIA)週二在短期能源展望(STEO)中表示，儘管需求創紀錄，但2024年美國天然氣市場仍將萎縮，這是自2016年以來需求首次連續四年增長。

U.S. dry gas production is expected to slip from last year's 103.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to 103.5 bcfd this year, a decline attributed to less drilling following a major drop in average monthly Henry Hub benchmark spot gas prices, which hit a 32-year low in March, according to Reuters.

美國乾氣產量預計將從去年的每天 1,038 億立方英尺 (bcfd) 下滑至今年的 103.5 bcfd，這一下降歸因於亨利中心基準現貨天然氣月均價格大幅下跌（跌幅達 32 倍）後鑽探減少。路透社報道，三月為年內最低點。

The output is projected to rise to 104.6 bcfd in 2025.

預計 2025 年產量將增加至 104.6 bcfd。

Meanwhile, the U.S. natural gas market is set for moderate growth. Domestic gas consumption is expected to rise from 89.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) last year to 90.1 bcfd this year, before slipping to 89.1 bcfd in 2025, according to the EIA.

同時，美國天然氣市場將溫和成長。根據 EIA 的數據，國內天然氣消耗量預計將從去年的每天 891 億立方英尺 (bcfd) 增加到今年的 90.1 bcfd，然後在 2025 年下滑至 89.1 bcfd。

If the projections hold, this year will mark the first decline in output since 2020, when demand for the fuel fell sharply due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

如果預測成立，今年將標誌著自 2020 年以來產量首次下降，當時燃料需求因 COVID-19 大流行而急劇下降。

The agency also expects average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to rise to 12.1 bcfd in 2024 and 13.8 bcfd in 2025, following a record 11.9 bcfd in 2023.

該機構還預計，繼 2023 年創紀錄的 11.9 bcfd 後，美國液化天然氣 (LNG) 平均出口量將在 2024 年增至 12.1 bcfd，2025 年增至 13.8 bcfd。

Separately, the EIA anticipates that fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will slip from 4.791 billion metric tons in 2023 to 4.777 billion metric tons in 2024, driven by declining oil and coal use. However, emissions could rise again to 4.794 billion metric tons in 2025 as petroleum and coal use picks up again.

另外，EIA 預計，由於石油和煤炭使用量下降，與化石燃料相關的二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放量將從 2023 年的 47.91 億噸減少到 2024 年的 47.77 億噸。然而，隨著石油和煤炭使用量的再次增加，2025 年排放量可能再次上升至 47.94 億噸。

U.S. coal production will continue to decline sharply as natural gas and renewable energy sources increasingly displace coal-fired power plants, the agency said.

該機構表示，隨著天然氣和再生能源日益取代燃煤電廠，美國煤炭產量將持續大幅下降。

In a new review of global gas markets and security, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said global gas demand is set to rise by more than 2.5% in 2024, with similar growth expected in 2025.

國際能源總署 (IEA) 在對全球天然氣市場和安全的新審查中表示，2024 年全球天然氣需求將增加 2.5% 以上，預計 2025 年將出現類似增長。

"Fast-growing markets in Asia account for a large amount of the increase while a rebound in Europe's industrial gas demand is also contributing, even though it remains well below its pre-crisis levels," the IEA said in the latest edition of its annual Global Gas Security Review.

國際能源總署在最新一期的年度報告中表示，「亞洲快速成長的市場佔了成長的很大一部分，而歐洲工業天然氣需求的反彈也做出了貢獻，儘管其仍遠低於危機前的水平。

The markets "remain sensitive to unexpected supply and demand side developments," the report said.

報告稱，市場「對供需雙方的意外發展仍然敏感」。