尽管需求创历史新高，美国天然气市场 2024 年仍将下滑

尽管需求创历史新高，但美国天然气市场预计将在 2024 年出现下滑，这是自 2016 年以来需求首次连续四年增长

The U.S. natural gas market is set to shrink in 2024 despite record demand, marking the first time demand has increased four years in a row since 2016, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.

美国能源信息署(EIA)周二在其短期能源展望(STEO)中表示，尽管需求创纪录，但2024年美国天然气市场仍将萎缩，这是自2016年以来需求首次连续四年增长。

U.S. dry gas production is expected to slip from last year's 103.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to 103.5 bcfd this year, a decline attributed to less drilling following a major drop in average monthly Henry Hub benchmark spot gas prices, which hit a 32-year low in March, according to Reuters.

美国干气产量预计将从去年的每天 1,038 亿立方英尺 (bcfd) 下滑至今年的 103.5 bcfd，这一下降归因于亨利中心基准现货天然气月均价格大幅下跌（跌幅达 32 倍）后钻探减少。据路透社报道，三月份为年内最低点。

The output is projected to rise to 104.6 bcfd in 2025.

预计 2025 年产量将增至 104.6 bcfd。

Meanwhile, the U.S. natural gas market is set for moderate growth. Domestic gas consumption is expected to rise from 89.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) last year to 90.1 bcfd this year, before slipping to 89.1 bcfd in 2025, according to the EIA.

与此同时，美国天然气市场将温和增长。根据 EIA 的数据，国内天然气消耗量预计将从去年的每天 891 亿立方英尺 (bcfd) 增加到今年的 90.1 bcfd，然后在 2025 年下滑至 89.1 bcfd。

If the projections hold, this year will mark the first decline in output since 2020, when demand for the fuel fell sharply due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

如果预测成立，今年将标志着自 2020 年以来产量首次下降，当时燃料需求因 COVID-19 大流行而急剧下降。

The agency also expects average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to rise to 12.1 bcfd in 2024 and 13.8 bcfd in 2025, following a record 11.9 bcfd in 2023.

该机构还预计，继 2023 年创纪录的 11.9 bcfd 后，美国液化天然气 (LNG) 平均出口量将在 2024 年增至 12.1 bcfd，2025 年增至 13.8 bcfd。

Separately, the EIA anticipates that fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will slip from 4.791 billion metric tons in 2023 to 4.777 billion metric tons in 2024, driven by declining oil and coal use. However, emissions could rise again to 4.794 billion metric tons in 2025 as petroleum and coal use picks up again.

另外，EIA 预计，由于石油和煤炭使用量下降，与化石燃料相关的二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放量将从 2023 年的 47.91 亿吨减少到 2024 年的 47.77 亿吨。然而，随着石油和煤炭使用量的再次增加，2025 年排放量可能再次上升至 47.94 亿吨。

U.S. coal production will continue to decline sharply as natural gas and renewable energy sources increasingly displace coal-fired power plants, the agency said.

该机构表示，随着天然气和可再生能源日益取代燃煤电厂，美国煤炭产量将继续大幅下降。

In a new review of global gas markets and security, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said global gas demand is set to rise by more than 2.5% in 2024, with similar growth expected in 2025.

国际能源署 (IEA) 在对全球天然气市场和安全的新审查中表示，2024 年全球天然气需求将增长 2.5% 以上，预计 2025 年将出现类似增长。

"Fast-growing markets in Asia account for a large amount of the increase while a rebound in Europe's industrial gas demand is also contributing, even though it remains well below its pre-crisis levels," the IEA said in the latest edition of its annual Global Gas Security Review.

国际能源署在最新一期的年度报告中表示，“亚洲快速增长的市场占了增长的很大一部分，而欧洲工业天然气需求的反弹也做出了贡献，尽管其仍远低于危机前的水平。”全球天然气安全审查。

The markets "remain sensitive to unexpected supply and demand side developments," the report said.

报告称，市场“对供需双方的意外发展仍然敏感”。