U.S. Natural Gas Market to Decline in 2024, Even as Demand Reaches Record High

The U.S. natural gas market is projected to decline in 2024, even as demand reaches a record high, marking the first time demand increases for four years in a row since 2016

The U.S. natural gas market is set to shrink in 2024 despite record demand, marking the first time demand has increased four years in a row since 2016, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.

U.S. dry gas production is expected to slip from last year's 103.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to 103.5 bcfd this year, a decline attributed to less drilling following a major drop in average monthly Henry Hub benchmark spot gas prices, which hit a 32-year low in March, according to Reuters.

The output is projected to rise to 104.6 bcfd in 2025.

Meanwhile, the U.S. natural gas market is set for moderate growth. Domestic gas consumption is expected to rise from 89.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) last year to 90.1 bcfd this year, before slipping to 89.1 bcfd in 2025, according to the EIA.

If the projections hold, this year will mark the first decline in output since 2020, when demand for the fuel fell sharply due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The agency also expects average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to rise to 12.1 bcfd in 2024 and 13.8 bcfd in 2025, following a record 11.9 bcfd in 2023.

Separately, the EIA anticipates that fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will slip from 4.791 billion metric tons in 2023 to 4.777 billion metric tons in 2024, driven by declining oil and coal use. However, emissions could rise again to 4.794 billion metric tons in 2025 as petroleum and coal use picks up again.

U.S. coal production will continue to decline sharply as natural gas and renewable energy sources increasingly displace coal-fired power plants, the agency said.

In a new review of global gas markets and security, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said global gas demand is set to rise by more than 2.5% in 2024, with similar growth expected in 2025.

"Fast-growing markets in Asia account for a large amount of the increase while a rebound in Europe's industrial gas demand is also contributing, even though it remains well below its pre-crisis levels," the IEA said in the latest edition of its annual Global Gas Security Review.

The markets "remain sensitive to unexpected supply and demand side developments," the report said.