強勁的就業報告引發通膨擔憂，市場情緒轉為負面

受強勁非農業就業數據影響，市場新年開局不佳，12月就業人數成長達25.6萬人

The market had a rough start to the new year, with strong non-farm payroll data showing December's employment growth reaching 256,000 (market expectation was +165,000) and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% (expected 4.2%). This caused U.S. Treasury yields to rise by about 10 basis points at one point, with long-term yields touching around 5%, leading to a 1.5% drop in U.S. stocks, while the dollar strengthened, oil prices rose by 3%, and cryptocurrencies remained flat after correcting about 5% in the previous trading days.

市場新年開局不利，強勁的非農業就業數據顯示12月就業人數成長達25.6萬人（市場預期+16.5萬人），失業率降至4.1%（預期4.2%）。這導緻美國公債殖利率一度上漲約10個基點，長期殖利率觸及5%左右，導緻美股下跌1.5%，而美元走強，油價上漲3%，加密貨幣上漲前幾個交易日修正約5% 後，仍持平。

The December employment report exceeded all investment banks' expectations, showing a significant increase of 478,000 in household survey employment, a surge in young workers in part-time jobs, and an average hourly wage growth of 3.9% year-on-year, far above the low of 3.6% in July, suggesting that price pressures may return, which has been a major concern for the Federal Reserve recently.

12月就業報告超出所有投入預期，家庭調查就業人數大幅增加47.8萬人，從事兼職工作的年輕工人激增，平均時薪同比增長3.9%，遠高於去年同期7月份3.6%的低點表明物價壓力可能會回歸，這是聯準會近期主要擔心的問題。

Bond yields exhibited a bear steepening trend, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.74% and the 30-year yield approaching 5%, hitting a nearly 12-month high. Additionally, the economy remains strong, and traders' expectations for rate cuts in 2025 quickly dropped from nearly three times to just once, making the Fed's dovish turn last September appear to be a policy misstep.

債券殖利率呈現熊市陡峭走勢，10年期殖利率達4.74%，30年期殖利率逼近5%，創近12個月新高。此外，經濟依然強勁，交易員對2025年降息的預期迅速從近三次降至一次，這使得聯準會去年9月的鴿派轉向似乎是政策失誤。

As a result, the stock market came under pressure, with declines in the U.S., UK, Japan, and Chinese markets, although the reasons varied. The U.S. and UK markets were hindered by rapidly rising bond yields and financing costs, Japan was punished for the central bank's sluggishness in raising interest rates and controlling inflation, while China faced the opposite problem, disappointing the market due to economic slowdown from deflation and a lack of concrete stimulus measures.

受此影響，股市承壓，美國、英國、日本、中國股市均出現下跌，但原因各有不同。美國和英國市場受到債券殖利率和融資成本快速上升的拖累，日本因央行升息和控制通膨緩慢而受到懲罰，而中國則面臨相反的問題，因通貨緊縮和經濟放緩而令市場失望。具體的刺激措施。

In China, the CSI 300 index fell over 5% in its first week of trading, marking the worst annual start since 2016. Concerns over tariff and sanction risks (with Tencent being the latest target), coupled with disappointment over policies, have led to a 20% decline in the Chinese stock market since its peak in October. Furthermore, domestic yields have dropped to historical lows, and the renminbi has weakened, further dampening risk sentiment, with no clear signs of an end in sight.

在中國，滬深 300 指數上市首周下跌超過 5%，創下 2016 年以來最糟糕的年度開局。中國股市自10 月高點以來已下跌20%。此外，國內殖利率跌至歷史低點，人民幣走弱，進一步抑制了風險情緒，而且目前還沒有明顯的結束跡象。

This week's focus will be on CPI and earnings reports, with the market having relatively good expectations for both. Overall CPI is expected to remain below 3%, and the breakeven inflation rate remains stable. However, preliminary inflation expectations from the University of Michigan have risen, combined with strong wage growth, which may tilt the risk balance upward, posing significant challenges to current market sentiment.

本週重點關注CPI和財報，市場對兩者均抱持較好預期。預計整體CPI將維持在3%以下，盈虧平衡通膨率維持穩定。然而，密西根大學初步通膨預期上升，加上薪資成長強勁，可能使風險平衡向上傾斜，對當前市場情緒構成重大挑戰。

After the CPI announcement, the earnings season will officially begin, with financial and large tech stocks potentially facing additional pressure. On the policy front, there will be press conferences from the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and comments from Bank of Japan Governor Himino, which the market will use to determine the future path of monetary and fiscal policy.

CPI公佈後，財報季將正式開始，金融股和大型科技股可能面臨額外壓力。政策方面，中國人民銀行和國家外匯管理局將召開新聞發布會，美聯儲官員將發表講話，日本央行行長日野野野將發表講話，市場將根據這些信息來決定未來的走勢。

In the cryptocurrency space, prices fell about 5-10% over the week, with BTC performing relatively well. Reports last week indicated that the U.S. Department of Justice was authorized to liquidate BTC seized in the Silk Road case (totaling $6.5 billion), providing the market with a reason to sell, while also raising a question: If the government is serious about cryptocurrency, why not directly include this BTC in the "BTC reserves"?

在加密貨幣領域，價格本週下跌約 5-10%，其中 BTC 表現相對較好。上週有報告稱，美國司法部被授權清算在絲綢之路案中扣押的比特幣（總計65 億美元），為市場提供了拋售的理由，同時也提出了一個問題：如果政府認真對待加密貨幣，為什麼不直接將這個BTC納入「BTC儲備」呢？

ETFs saw net inflows starting last Monday, but significant sell-offs occurred in the latter half of the week, with over $700 million flowing out since Wednesday. The total amount of futures long liquidations reached around $1 billion, nearing the scale seen in November and December.

ETF從上週一開始出現淨流入，但下半週出現大幅拋售，週三以來流出超過7億美元。期貨多頭平倉總額達10億美元左右，接近11月和12月的規模。

A recent survey by Citigroup (targeted at its TradFi clients) showed that respondents generally expect BTC prices to rise in 2025, with most anticipating prices to be in the range of $100,000 to $200,000 by the end of the year. Does price move with sentiment, or does sentiment change with price? We will soon find out the answer!

花旗集團最近的一項調查（針對其 TradFi 客戶）顯示，受訪者普遍預計 BTC 價格將在 2025 年上漲，大多數人預計到年底價格將在 10 萬至 20 萬美元之間。價格隨情緒變化，還是情緒隨價格變化？我們很快就會找到答案！