强劲的就业报告引发通胀担忧，市场情绪转为负面

受强劲非农就业数据影响，市场新年开局不佳，12月就业人数增长达25.6万人

The market had a rough start to the new year, with strong non-farm payroll data showing December's employment growth reaching 256,000 (market expectation was +165,000) and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% (expected 4.2%). This caused U.S. Treasury yields to rise by about 10 basis points at one point, with long-term yields touching around 5%, leading to a 1.5% drop in U.S. stocks, while the dollar strengthened, oil prices rose by 3%, and cryptocurrencies remained flat after correcting about 5% in the previous trading days.

市场新年开局不利，强劲的非农就业数据显示12月就业人数增长达25.6万人（市场预期+16.5万人），失业率降至4.1%（预期4.2%）。这导致美国国债收益率一度上涨约10个基点，长期收益率触及5%左右，导致美股下跌1.5%，而美元走强，油价上涨3%，加密货币上涨前几个交易日修正约 5% 后，仍持平。

The December employment report exceeded all investment banks' expectations, showing a significant increase of 478,000 in household survey employment, a surge in young workers in part-time jobs, and an average hourly wage growth of 3.9% year-on-year, far above the low of 3.6% in July, suggesting that price pressures may return, which has been a major concern for the Federal Reserve recently.

12月就业报告超出所有投行预期，家庭调查就业人数大幅增加47.8万人，从事兼职工作的年轻工人激增，平均时薪同比增长3.9%，远高于去年同期7月份3.6%的低点表明物价压力可能会回归，这是美联储近期主要担心的问题。

Bond yields exhibited a bear steepening trend, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.74% and the 30-year yield approaching 5%, hitting a nearly 12-month high. Additionally, the economy remains strong, and traders' expectations for rate cuts in 2025 quickly dropped from nearly three times to just once, making the Fed's dovish turn last September appear to be a policy misstep.

债券收益率呈现熊市陡峭走势，10年期收益率达到4.74%，30年期收益率逼近5%，创近12个月新高。此外，经济依然强劲，交易员对2025年降息的预期迅速从近三次降至一次，这使得美联储去年9月的鸽派转向似乎是一次政策失误。

As a result, the stock market came under pressure, with declines in the U.S., UK, Japan, and Chinese markets, although the reasons varied. The U.S. and UK markets were hindered by rapidly rising bond yields and financing costs, Japan was punished for the central bank's sluggishness in raising interest rates and controlling inflation, while China faced the opposite problem, disappointing the market due to economic slowdown from deflation and a lack of concrete stimulus measures.

受此影响，股市承压，美国、英国、日本、中国股市均出现下跌，但原因各有不同。美国和英国市场受到债券收益率和融资成本快速上升的拖累，日本因央行加息和控制通胀缓慢而受到惩罚，而中国则面临相反的问题，因通货紧缩和经济放缓而令市场失望。缺乏具体的刺激措施。

In China, the CSI 300 index fell over 5% in its first week of trading, marking the worst annual start since 2016. Concerns over tariff and sanction risks (with Tencent being the latest target), coupled with disappointment over policies, have led to a 20% decline in the Chinese stock market since its peak in October. Furthermore, domestic yields have dropped to historical lows, and the renminbi has weakened, further dampening risk sentiment, with no clear signs of an end in sight.

在中国，沪深 300 指数上市首周下跌超过 5%，创下 2016 年以来最糟糕的年度开局。对关税和制裁风险（腾讯是最新目标）的担忧，加上对政策的失望，导致股市下跌。中国股市自 10 月份高点以来已下跌 20%。此外，国内收益率跌至历史低点，人民币走弱，进一步抑制了风险情绪，而且目前还没有明显的结束迹象。

This week's focus will be on CPI and earnings reports, with the market having relatively good expectations for both. Overall CPI is expected to remain below 3%, and the breakeven inflation rate remains stable. However, preliminary inflation expectations from the University of Michigan have risen, combined with strong wage growth, which may tilt the risk balance upward, posing significant challenges to current market sentiment.

本周重点关注CPI和财报，市场对两者均抱有较好预期。预计总体CPI将保持在3%以下，盈亏平衡通胀率保持稳定。然而，密歇根大学初步通胀预期上升，加上工资增长强劲，可能使风险平衡向上倾斜，对当前市场情绪构成重大挑战。

After the CPI announcement, the earnings season will officially begin, with financial and large tech stocks potentially facing additional pressure. On the policy front, there will be press conferences from the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and comments from Bank of Japan Governor Himino, which the market will use to determine the future path of monetary and fiscal policy.

CPI公布后，财报季将正式开始，金融股和大型科技股可能面临额外压力。政策方面，中国人民银行和国家外汇管理局将召开新闻发布会，美联储官员将发表讲话，日本央行行长日野野野将发表讲话，市场将根据这些信息来决定未来的走势。货币和财政政策。

In the cryptocurrency space, prices fell about 5-10% over the week, with BTC performing relatively well. Reports last week indicated that the U.S. Department of Justice was authorized to liquidate BTC seized in the Silk Road case (totaling $6.5 billion), providing the market with a reason to sell, while also raising a question: If the government is serious about cryptocurrency, why not directly include this BTC in the "BTC reserves"?

在加密货币领域，价格本周下跌约 5-10%，其中 BTC 表现相对较好。上周有报道称，美国司法部被授权清算在丝绸之路案中扣押的比特币（总计 65 亿美元），为市场提供了抛售的理由，同时也提出了一个问题：如果政府认真对待加密货币，为什么不直接将这个BTC纳入“BTC储备”呢？

ETFs saw net inflows starting last Monday, but significant sell-offs occurred in the latter half of the week, with over $700 million flowing out since Wednesday. The total amount of futures long liquidations reached around $1 billion, nearing the scale seen in November and December.

ETF从上周一开始出现净流入，但下半周出现大幅抛售，周三以来流出超过7亿美元。期货多头平仓总额达到10亿美元左右，接近11月和12月的规模。

A recent survey by Citigroup (targeted at its TradFi clients) showed that respondents generally expect BTC prices to rise in 2025, with most anticipating prices to be in the range of $100,000 to $200,000 by the end of the year. Does price move with sentiment, or does sentiment change with price? We will soon find out the answer!

花旗集团最近的一项调查（针对其 TradFi 客户）显示，受访者普遍预计 BTC 价格将在 2025 年上涨，大多数人预计到年底价格将在 10 万至 20 万美元之间。价格随情绪变化，还是情绪随价格变化？我们很快就会找到答案！