在CEX上列出通常是新令牌的光彩峰，然後是快速，一致的下降

在加密貨幣的世界中，降落在集中交易所（CEX）上通常被認為是每個新代幣的關鍵里程碑。

In the bustling world of cryptocurrencies, landing on a centralized exchange (CEX) is often hailed as a crucial milestone for every new token.

在繁華的加密貨幣世界中，降落在集中式交易所（CEX）上通常被譽為每個新令牌的關鍵里程碑。

The listing on platforms like Binance, Bybit, or Coinbase promises immediate visibility, greater liquidity, and above all a possible increase in the token’s value.

諸如Binance，Bybit或Coinbase之類的平台上的清單承諾立即可見性，更大的流動性，最重要的是，令牌價值可能會增加。

However, a new study conducted by CryptoNinjas in collaboration with Storible, questions this enthusiasm.

但是，Cryptoninjas與Storible合作進行了一項新的研究，質疑這種熱情。

The results show that the listing on a CEX often coincides with the peak of a token’s brilliance, only to be followed by a rapid and consistent decline.

結果表明，在CEX上的上市通常與令牌光彩的峰值相吻合，但隨後是快速，一致的下降。

FOMO and listing on CEX: why tokens ‘pump’ at the beginning

FOMO和CEX上的列表：為什麼在開始時令牌“泵”

The study examined all the tokens listed in 2024 on six of the most important exchange platforms: Binance, Bybit, OKX, Coinbase, Bithumb, and Upbit. In total, 389 tokens were analysed.

該研究檢查了2024年列出的所有令牌上列出的六個最重要的交換平台：Binance，Bybit，Okx，Coinbase，Bithumb和Upbit。總共分析了389個令牌。

The researchers have collected data related to the price at the time of listing, the current price (updated as of February 4, 2025), and the all-time high reached (ATH).

研究人員收集了與上市時價格有關的數據，當前價格（截至2025年2月4日更新）和歷史最高時期的數據（ATH）。

The conclusions are surprising: on average, listing on a CEX generates a 54% increase in the token price in the short term.

結論令人驚訝：平均而言，在CEX上列出的列表在短期內產生的令牌價格上漲了54％。

However, this initial jump is followed by a 52% plunge, with 89% of the tokens ending up losing value compared to the peak recorded during the listing phase.

但是，這次跳躍之後是52％的暴跌，與上市階段記錄的峰值相比，令牌的89％最終損失了值。

When a project is listed on a prestigious CEX, there is almost always a wave of enthusiasm among investors, often driven by the so-called FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).

當一個項目在著名的CEX上列出時，投資者幾乎總是會有一波熱情，通常是由所謂的FOMO驅動的（擔心錯過）。

This leads to a sudden surge in purchase requests, fuelled by the belief that the token is about to take off. According to the study, the 54% average growth in price just after the listing is evidence of high liquidity and speculative expectations. In many cases, however, this peak simply represents a temporary bubble.

這導致了購買請求的突然激增，這是因為信念即將起飛。根據這項研究，上市後的價格平均增長54％是流動性高和投機期望的證據。但是，在許多情況下，該峰簡直代表了暫時的氣泡。

Another significant data point concerns the all-time highs (ATH). 37% of the tokens analysed reached their peak value on the very day of listing on a CEX, without ever managing to surpass it again.

另一個重要的數據點涉及歷史高峰（ATH）。分析的代幣中有37％在CEX上列出的那天達到了其峰值價值，而從未設法再次超過它。

This demonstrates that the hype generated by the novelty of the listing often represents the peak of the market performance of the token.

這表明，清單的新穎性產生的炒作通常代表了令牌市場表現的頂峰。

The next phase is almost always painful. After the initial euphoria, a wave of sales follows, leading to an average drop of 52% compared to the value reached during the pump phase.

下一個階段幾乎總是痛苦的。最初的欣快感之後，銷售浪潮隨後，與泵階段所達到的價值相比，平均下降了52％。

In other words, for the majority of tokens, the arrival on a CEX turns into a descending parabola, rather than a lasting launch pad.

換句話說，對於大多數令牌，到達CEX上的到達變成了降落的拋物線，而不是持久的發射台。

Binance: the queen of effects, but double-edged

Binance：效果女王，但雙刃

Among all the platforms analysed, Binance confirms itself as the one with the greatest impact, both positive and negative. The tokens listed on the largest exchange in the world record a surge of 87% on the day of listing, the highest value among all platforms.

在分析的所有平台中，Binance確認自己是影響最大，正面和負面的最大的平台。在全球最大的交易所列出的代幣記錄在上市當天的87％，這是所有平台中最高的價值。

However, glory is fleeting: a full 98% of these tokens end up being ‘dumps’, experiencing an average drop of 70% from the initial peak.

但是，榮耀是短暫的：這些令牌中有98％最終是“垃圾場”，從初始峰值處平均下降了70％。

Furthermore, 46% of the tokens listed on Binance reach their ATH on the same day of listing, indicating that for many of them, the listing represents the moment of maximum capitalisation, not the beginning of a lasting positive trend.

此外，在列表的同一天，二元列出的代幣中有46％到達他們的ATH，這表明對於許多人來說，清單代表了最大資本化的時刻，而不是持久的積極趨勢的開始。

In second place for market impact is Bybit, another rapidly rising platform. The data shows that the tokens listed on Bybit record an average increase of 61% at the time of listing.

在市場影響的第二位是另一個快速上升的平台Bybit。數據顯示，在列出時，在Bybit記錄上列出的令牌平均增加了61％。

Curiously, Bybit holds the record for the highest percentage of tokens reaching ATH at the time of listing: a full 60%.

奇怪的是，Bybit在上市時擁有最高百分比的代幣百分比的記錄：全60％。

Here too, however, it follows the decline: 92% of the tokens undergo a dumping phase, with an average drop of 63% compared to the initial peak. A scenario that confirms how risky it can be to invest by following only the enthusiasm of the moment.

然而，在這裡，下降也是如此：92％的令牌經歷傾倒階段，與初始峰相比，平均下降63％。這種方案證實了僅遵循當下的熱情來投資的風險。

Unlike its competitors, Coinbase exhibits a more sober and controlled behaviour. The tokens listed on this US platform experience only a 41% increase during the listing phase, the lowest percentage among all the CEX considered.

與競爭對手不同，Coinbase表現出更清醒和受控的行為。在美國平台上列出的代幣在上市階段僅增加41％，這是所有CEX所考慮的最低百分比。

However, even the subsequent crash is more moderate, with an average decline of 28%. Only 23% of tokens on Coinbase reach the ATH at the time of listing, the lowest percentage of the entire sample analysed. This could indicate that the market connected to Coinbase is less aggressive and therefore also less prone to speculative bubbles.

但是，即使是隨後的崩潰也更為中等，平均下降28％。在上市時，只有23％的代幣達到了ATH，這是經過分析的整個樣本中最低的百分比。這可能表明與Coinbase連接的市場不那麼積極，因此也不太容易發生投機氣泡。

A predictable but dangerous cycle

一個可預測但危險的循環

The research by CryptoNinjas and Storible demonstrates with clear numbers how the dynamic of pump & dump is the norm rather than the exception in the context of CEX. The cycle is easily recognizable:

Cryptoninjas和Storible的研究表明，在CEX背景下，泵和轉儲的動態是規範而不是例外。該週期很容易識別：

For the projects, the listing remains a fundamental step to access the large audience of the global market.

對於這些項目，列表仍然是訪問全球市場大受眾群體的基本步驟。

But for investors, especially those less experienced, giving in to the temptation of purchasing on the launch day can mean

但是對於投資者，尤其是那些經驗不足的投資者而言，在發布日屈服於購買的誘惑可能意味著