在CEX上列出通常是新令牌的光彩峰，然后是快速，一致的下降

在加密货币的世界中，降落在集中交易所（CEX）上通常被认为是每个新代币的关键里程碑。

In the bustling world of cryptocurrencies, landing on a centralized exchange (CEX) is often hailed as a crucial milestone for every new token.

在繁华的加密货币世界中，降落在集中式交易所（CEX）上通常被誉为每个新令牌的关键里程碑。

The listing on platforms like Binance, Bybit, or Coinbase promises immediate visibility, greater liquidity, and above all a possible increase in the token’s value.

诸如Binance，Bybit或Coinbase之类的平台上的清单承诺立即可见性，更大的流动性，最重要的是，令牌价值可能会增加。

However, a new study conducted by CryptoNinjas in collaboration with Storible, questions this enthusiasm.

但是，Cryptoninjas与Storible合作进行了一项新的研究，质疑这种热情。

The results show that the listing on a CEX often coincides with the peak of a token’s brilliance, only to be followed by a rapid and consistent decline.

结果表明，在CEX上的上市通常与令牌光彩的峰值相吻合，但随后是快速，一致的下降。

FOMO and listing on CEX: why tokens ‘pump’ at the beginning

FOMO和CEX上的列表：为什么在开始时令牌“泵”

The study examined all the tokens listed in 2024 on six of the most important exchange platforms: Binance, Bybit, OKX, Coinbase, Bithumb, and Upbit. In total, 389 tokens were analysed.

该研究检查了2024年列出的所有令牌上列出的六个最重要的交换平台：Binance，Bybit，Okx，Coinbase，Bithumb和Upbit。总共分析了389个令牌。

The researchers have collected data related to the price at the time of listing, the current price (updated as of February 4, 2025), and the all-time high reached (ATH).

研究人员收集了与上市时价格有关的数据，当前价格（截至2025年2月4日更新）和历史最高时期的数据（ATH）。

The conclusions are surprising: on average, listing on a CEX generates a 54% increase in the token price in the short term.

结论令人惊讶：平均而言，在CEX上列出的列表在短期内产生的令牌价格上涨了54％。

However, this initial jump is followed by a 52% plunge, with 89% of the tokens ending up losing value compared to the peak recorded during the listing phase.

但是，这次跳跃之后是52％的暴跌，与上市阶段记录的峰值相比，令牌的89％最终损失了值。

When a project is listed on a prestigious CEX, there is almost always a wave of enthusiasm among investors, often driven by the so-called FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).

当一个项目在著名的CEX上列出时，投资者几乎总是会有一波热情，通常是由所谓的FOMO驱动的（担心错过）。

This leads to a sudden surge in purchase requests, fuelled by the belief that the token is about to take off. According to the study, the 54% average growth in price just after the listing is evidence of high liquidity and speculative expectations. In many cases, however, this peak simply represents a temporary bubble.

这导致了购买请求的突然激增，这是因为信念即将起飞。根据这项研究，上市后的价格平均增长54％是流动性高和投机期望的证据。但是，在许多情况下，该峰简直代表了暂时的气泡。

Another significant data point concerns the all-time highs (ATH). 37% of the tokens analysed reached their peak value on the very day of listing on a CEX, without ever managing to surpass it again.

另一个重要的数据点涉及历史高峰（ATH）。分析的代币中有37％在CEX上列出的那天达到了其峰值价值，而从未设法再次超过它。

This demonstrates that the hype generated by the novelty of the listing often represents the peak of the market performance of the token.

这表明，清单的新颖性产生的炒作通常代表了令牌市场表现的顶峰。

The next phase is almost always painful. After the initial euphoria, a wave of sales follows, leading to an average drop of 52% compared to the value reached during the pump phase.

下一个阶段几乎总是痛苦的。最初的欣快感之后，销售浪潮随后，与泵阶段所达到的价值相比，平均下降了52％。

In other words, for the majority of tokens, the arrival on a CEX turns into a descending parabola, rather than a lasting launch pad.

换句话说，对于大多数令牌，到达CEX上的到达变成了降落的抛物线，而不是持久的发射台。

Binance: the queen of effects, but double-edged

Binance：效果女王，但双刃

Among all the platforms analysed, Binance confirms itself as the one with the greatest impact, both positive and negative. The tokens listed on the largest exchange in the world record a surge of 87% on the day of listing, the highest value among all platforms.

在分析的所有平台中，Binance确认自己是影响最大，正面和负面的最大的平台。在全球最大的交易所列出的代币记录在上市当天的87％，这是所有平台中最高的价值。

However, glory is fleeting: a full 98% of these tokens end up being ‘dumps’, experiencing an average drop of 70% from the initial peak.

但是，荣耀是短暂的：这些令牌中有98％最终是“垃圾场”，从初始峰值处平均下降了70％。

Furthermore, 46% of the tokens listed on Binance reach their ATH on the same day of listing, indicating that for many of them, the listing represents the moment of maximum capitalisation, not the beginning of a lasting positive trend.

此外，在列表的同一天，二元列出的代币中有46％到达他们的ATH，这表明对于许多人来说，清单代表了最大资本化的时刻，而不是持久的积极趋势的开始。

In second place for market impact is Bybit, another rapidly rising platform. The data shows that the tokens listed on Bybit record an average increase of 61% at the time of listing.

在市场影响的第二位是另一个快速上升的平台Bybit。数据显示，在列出时，在Bybit记录上列出的令牌平均增加了61％。

Curiously, Bybit holds the record for the highest percentage of tokens reaching ATH at the time of listing: a full 60%.

奇怪的是，Bybit在上市时拥有最高百分比的代币百分比的记录：全60％。

Here too, however, it follows the decline: 92% of the tokens undergo a dumping phase, with an average drop of 63% compared to the initial peak. A scenario that confirms how risky it can be to invest by following only the enthusiasm of the moment.

然而，在这里，下降也是如此：92％的令牌经历倾倒阶段，与初始峰相比，平均下降63％。这种方案证实了仅遵循当下的热情来投资的风险。

Unlike its competitors, Coinbase exhibits a more sober and controlled behaviour. The tokens listed on this US platform experience only a 41% increase during the listing phase, the lowest percentage among all the CEX considered.

与竞争对手不同，Coinbase表现出更清醒和受控的行为。在美国平台上列出的代币在上市阶段仅增加41％，这是所有CEX所考虑的最低百分比。

However, even the subsequent crash is more moderate, with an average decline of 28%. Only 23% of tokens on Coinbase reach the ATH at the time of listing, the lowest percentage of the entire sample analysed. This could indicate that the market connected to Coinbase is less aggressive and therefore also less prone to speculative bubbles.

但是，即使是随后的崩溃也更为中等，平均下降28％。在上市时，只有23％的代币达到了ATH，这是经过分析的整个样本中最低的百分比。这可能表明与Coinbase连接的市场不那么积极，因此也不太容易发生投机气泡。

A predictable but dangerous cycle

一个可预测但危险的循环

The research by CryptoNinjas and Storible demonstrates with clear numbers how the dynamic of pump & dump is the norm rather than the exception in the context of CEX. The cycle is easily recognizable:

Cryptoninjas和Storible的研究表明，在CEX背景下，泵和转储的动态是规范而不是例外。该周期很容易识别：

For the projects, the listing remains a fundamental step to access the large audience of the global market.

对于这些项目，列表仍然是访问全球市场大受众群体的基本步骤。

But for investors, especially those less experienced, giving in to the temptation of purchasing on the launch day can mean

但是对于投资者，尤其是那些经验不足的投资者而言，在发布日屈服于购买的诱惑可能意味着