比特幣（BTC）風險落入新鮮熊市，因為大量BTC價格指標產生了“看跌差異”。

在3月27日的社交媒體討論中，比特幣評論員標記了Capriole Investments比特幣宏指數的令人不安的信號。

Bitcoin (BTC) risks falling into a fresh bear market as a large collection of BTC price metrics has produced a "bearish divergence."

比特幣（BTC）風險落入新鮮熊市，因為大量BTC價格指標產生了“看跌差異”。

In a social media discussion on March 27, Bitcoin commentators flagged troubling signals from the Capriole Investments' Bitcoin Macro Index.

在3月27日的社交媒體討論中，比特幣評論員標記了Capriole Investments比特幣宏指數的令人不安的信號。

Bitcoin Macro Index slump 'not great,' says creator

創作者說

As BTC/USD struggles to return to the area around all-time highs, onchain metrics are beginning to lose their bull market edge.

隨著BTC/USD努力返回曆史最高高點的地區，Onchain指標開始失去牛市的優勢。

The Bitcoin Macro Index, which Capriole launched in 2022, uses machine learning to analyze data from a large number of metrics that founder Charles Edwards says "give a strong indication of Bitcoin’s relative value throughout historical cycles."

Capriole於2022年推出的比特幣宏指數使用機器學習來分析來自大量指標的數據，創始人查爾斯·愛德華茲（Charles Edwards）表示：“在整個歷史週期中，有很大的指示表明比特幣的相對價值。”

"The model only looks at onchain and macro-market data. Uniquely, price data and technical analysis is not considered an input in this model," he explained in an introduction to the tool at the time.

他在當時的工具介紹中解釋說：“該模型僅著眼於OnChain和宏觀市場數據。獨特的是，價格數據和技術分析不被視為該模型的輸入。”

Since late 2023, the metric has been printing lower highs while price prints higher highs, creating a "bearish divergence." While common to previous bull markets, a potential implication is that BTC/USD has already put in a long-term peak.

自2023年底以來，該指標一直在打印較低的高點，而價格則打印出更高的高點，從而產生了“看跌差異”。雖然對以前的牛市共同，但潛在的含義是BTC/USD已經處於長期高峰狀態。

"Not great," Edwards reacted while reposting a print of the Index uploaded to X by another user.

“不是很好。”愛德華茲在重新發布另一個用戶上傳到X的索引的打印時做出了反應。

Capriole Bitcoin Macro Index. Source: @A_Trade_Academy/X

Capriole比特幣宏指數。來源： @a_trade_academy/x

BTC price metrics struggle to recover

BTC價格指標努力恢復

Various analytics sources have concluded that Bitcoin is suffering from macro turbulence this year.

各種分析來源得出的結論是，今年比特幣患有宏動盪。

In one of its "Quicktake" blog posts this week, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant referenced four onchain metrics currently in a state of flux.

在本週的“ QuickTake”博客文章之一中，OnChain Analytics平台加密量牌引用了目前處於不斷變化狀態的四個OnChain指標。

“All of these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is experiencing significant turbulence in the short to mid-term,” contributor Burak Kesmeci said.

撰稿人Burak Kesmeci說：“所有這些指標都表明，比特幣在短期到中期都經歷了巨大的動盪。”

Bitcoin IFP chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

比特幣IFP圖表（屏幕截圖）。資料來源：加密

The list includes the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Net Unspent Profit/Loss (NUPL), as well as the so-called Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric, which flipped bearish in February.

該列表包括實現價值的市場價值（MVRV）和淨Untpent損益/損失（NUPL），以及所謂的交換流動脈衝（IFP）指標，該度量在2月份翻轉了看跌。

For this to change, Kesmeci concluded, IFP should return above its 90-day simple moving average (SMA).

為了改變這一點，Kesmeci總結說，IFP應返回其90天簡單移動平均線（SMA）。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投資建議或建議。每個投資和交易舉動都涉及風險，讀者在做出決定時應進行自己的研究。