比特币（BTC）风险落入新鲜熊市，因为大量BTC价格指标产生了“看跌差异”。

在3月27日的社交媒体讨论中，比特币评论员标记了Capriole Investments比特币宏指数的令人不安的信号。

Bitcoin (BTC) risks falling into a fresh bear market as a large collection of BTC price metrics has produced a "bearish divergence."

比特币（BTC）风险落入新鲜熊市，因为大量BTC价格指标产生了“看跌差异”。

In a social media discussion on March 27, Bitcoin commentators flagged troubling signals from the Capriole Investments' Bitcoin Macro Index.

在3月27日的社交媒体讨论中，比特币评论员标记了Capriole Investments比特币宏指数的令人不安的信号。

Bitcoin Macro Index slump 'not great,' says creator

创作者说

As BTC/USD struggles to return to the area around all-time highs, onchain metrics are beginning to lose their bull market edge.

随着BTC/USD努力返回历史最高高点的地区，Onchain指标开始失去牛市的优势。

The Bitcoin Macro Index, which Capriole launched in 2022, uses machine learning to analyze data from a large number of metrics that founder Charles Edwards says "give a strong indication of Bitcoin’s relative value throughout historical cycles."

Capriole于2022年推出的比特币宏指数使用机器学习来分析来自大量指标的数据，创始人查尔斯·爱德华兹（Charles Edwards）表示：“在整个历史周期中，有很大的指示表明比特币的相对价值。”

"The model only looks at onchain and macro-market data. Uniquely, price data and technical analysis is not considered an input in this model," he explained in an introduction to the tool at the time.

他在当时的工具介绍中解释说：“该模型仅着眼于OnChain和宏观市场数据。独特的是，价格数据和技术分析不被视为该模型的输入。”

Since late 2023, the metric has been printing lower highs while price prints higher highs, creating a "bearish divergence." While common to previous bull markets, a potential implication is that BTC/USD has already put in a long-term peak.

自2023年底以来，该指标一直在打印较低的高点，而价格则打印出更高的高点，从而产生了“看跌差异”。虽然对以前的牛市共同，但潜在的含义是BTC/USD已经处于长期高峰状态。

"Not great," Edwards reacted while reposting a print of the Index uploaded to X by another user.

“不是很好。”爱德华兹在重新发布另一个用户上传到X的索引的打印时做出了反应。

Capriole Bitcoin Macro Index. Source: @A_Trade_Academy/X

Capriole比特币宏指数。来源： @a_trade_academy/x

BTC price metrics struggle to recover

BTC价格指标努力恢复

Various analytics sources have concluded that Bitcoin is suffering from macro turbulence this year.

各种分析来源得出的结论是，今年比特币患有宏动荡。

In one of its "Quicktake" blog posts this week, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant referenced four onchain metrics currently in a state of flux.

在本周的“ QuickTake”博客文章之一中，OnChain Analytics平台加密量牌引用了目前处于不断变化状态的四个OnChain指标。

“All of these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is experiencing significant turbulence in the short to mid-term,” contributor Burak Kesmeci said.

撰稿人Burak Kesmeci说：“所有这些指标都表明，比特币在短期到中期都经历了巨大的动荡。”

Bitcoin IFP chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

比特币IFP图表（屏幕截图）。资料来源：加密

The list includes the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Net Unspent Profit/Loss (NUPL), as well as the so-called Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric, which flipped bearish in February.

该列表包括实现价值的市场价值（MVRV）和净Untpent损益/损失（NUPL），以及所谓的交换流动脉冲（IFP）指标，该度量在2月份翻转了看跌。

For this to change, Kesmeci concluded, IFP should return above its 90-day simple moving average (SMA).

为了改变这一点，Kesmeci总结说，IFP应返回其90天简单移动平均线（SMA）。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投资建议或建议。每个投资和交易举动都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应进行自己的研究。