比特幣和美元指數的關鍵一周

本週的一系列美國經濟數據將決定美元是否繼續走弱，從而為比特幣和其他風險資產帶來利好。

is week's slew of U.S. economic data will determine whether Bitcoin continues to weaken, offering a tailwind to BTC and other risk assets.

本週的一系列美國經濟數據將決定比特幣是否繼續走弱，從而為比特幣和其他風險資產提供動力。

Bitcoin (BTC) fell over 10% in the seven days to Sept. 1, reversing the preceding week's price bounce as the decline in the dollar index stalled.

截至 9 月 1 日的 7 天內，比特幣 (BTC) 下跌超過 10%，扭轉了前一周因美元指數跌勢停滯而出現的價格反彈。

The slew of U.S. economic data due this week will likely determine whether the dollar resumes the two-month weakening trend, offering a tailwind for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

本周公布的一系列美國經濟數據可能會決定美元是否會恢復兩個月來的疲軟趨勢，為包括加密貨幣在內的風險資產帶來推動力。

The economic releases start Tuesday with the Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for August. According to ForexLive, the consensus is that the index will rise to 47.5 from July's 46.8, which signaled the sharpest contraction in factory activity since November 2023.

經濟數據將於週二公佈，其中包括供應管理協會 (ISM) 8 月製造業採購經理人指數 (PMI)。據 ForexLive 稱，市場普遍認為該指數將從 7 月的 46.8 升至 47.5，這標誌著工廠活動出現 2023 年 11 月以來最嚴重的收縮。

A weak reading will strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, sending the dollar lower and boosting demand for riskier assets. Interest-rate markets are already pricing a 70% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 30% chance of a 50 basis point cut in September, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

疲軟的數據將強化聯準會降息的理由，導緻美元走低並提振對風險資產的需求。根據芝商所的 FedWatch 工具，利率市場已經預期 9 月降息 25 個基點的可能性為 70%，降息 50 個基點的可能性為 30%。

"Rate cuts are good for BTC, as it is particularly sensitive to monetary liquidity conditions (seen as a risk asset, with no cash flow or margins to get hit in a slowdown)," Noelle Acheson, author of the popular Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter, said in last week's edition.

“降息對比特幣有利，因為它對貨幣流動性狀況特別敏感（被視為風險資產，沒有現金流或利潤在經濟放緩時受到打擊）”，《加密貨幣現在是宏觀》一書的作者諾埃爾·艾奇遜時事通訊，在上週的版本中說。

"A weaker U.S. dollar is good for BTC, as it tends to boost monetary liquidity by lowering the cost of capital. Plus, expectations of continued dollar weakness highlight the utility of a dollar hedge and should boost spending power (and hedge interest) in other jurisdictions. And, the dollar is the denominator of the most-quoted pair (BTC/USD)," Acheson wrote.

「美元走軟對比特幣有利，因為它往往會透過降低資本成本來提高貨幣流動性。此外，美元持續疲軟的預期凸顯了美元對沖的效用，並應提高其他領域的消費能力（和對沖興趣）而且，美元是引用最多的貨幣對（BTC/USD）的分母，」艾奇遜寫道。

That said, July's weaker-than-expected ISM PMI, released Aug. 1, triggered recession fears, weighing on risk assets even as the dollar dropped. BTC fell 3.7% to $62,300 that day. Traders, therefore, should watch out for a "growth scare" should the PMI come in worse than expected.

儘管如此，8 月 1 日公佈的 7 月 ISM PMI 弱於預期，引發了人們對經濟衰退的擔憂，儘管美元下跌，但仍對風險資產造成壓力。 BTC 當日下跌 3.7% 至 62,300 美元。因此，如果 PMI 資料差於預期，交易者應警惕「成長恐慌」。

"This is a key metric as risk assets moved sharply lower the last time," Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a weekly preview note.

10x Research 創辦人 Markus Thielen 在每週預覽報告中表示：“這是一個關鍵指標，因為風險資產上次大幅下跌。”

Nonfarm payrolls due Friday

非農就業數據將於週五公佈

ForexLive analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta's weekly preview note echoed the sentiment. "The main culprit might have been the employment sub-index falling to a new 4-year low ahead of the NFP report, which eventually triggered another wave of selling [in risk assets] as it came out weaker than expected across the board," Dellamotta said, referring to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls release.

ForexLive 分析師 Giuseppe Dellamotta 的每週預覽報告呼應了這種情緒。 「罪魁禍首可能是就業分類指數在非農就業報告公佈之前跌至四年來新低，最終引發了另一波（風險資產）拋售，因為該指數全面弱於預期。」德拉莫塔指的是美國非農就業數據的發布。

Later this week, the focus will shift to the JOLTS job opening data, due Wednesday, ISM services PMI, ADP and weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the main event of the week – the August nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

本週晚些時候，焦點將轉向周三公佈的JOLTS 職缺數據、週四公佈的ISM 服務業PMI、ADP 和每週失業救濟金申請數據，以及週五公佈的本週主要事件——8 月非農就業(NFP) 報告。

"If the consensus is right about Friday's jobs report (165,000 job gains and a drop in the unemployment rate back to 4.2%), then market pricing will firm up just a 25bp cut as the start to the Fed easing cycle on 18 September," analysts at ING said in Monday's morning note.

「如果週五就業報告的共識是正確的（就業崗位增加 165,000 人，失業率回落至 4.2%），那麼隨著 9 月 18 日美聯儲寬鬆週期的開始，市場定價將僅下調 25 個基點。」 ING分析師在周一早晨報告中表示。

However, according to ING's U.S. economists, the payrolls could show additions of just 125,000 and an uptick in the jobless rate to 4.4%, resulting in a continued drop in the U.S. dollar.

然而，根據ING美國經濟學家的說法，就業人數可能僅增加12.5萬人，失業率將上升至4.4%，導緻美元持續下跌。

From a technical analysis view point, BTC is on the defensive ahead of the key data releases, with indicators like the MACD histogram pointing to a strengthening of the downside momentum.

從技術分析的角度來看，在關鍵資料發布之前，BTC處於守勢，MACD長條圖等指標顯示下行動能正在加強。

"Technical indicators suggest that the bearish momentum may persist," Valentin Fournier, an analyst at research firm BRN, said in an email. "The MACD is showing increasingly negative momentum, while the RSI is at a neutral level. The lower band of the Bollinger Bands remains around $56,000, indicating potential further declines toward this level."

研究公司 BRN 分析師 Valentin Fournier 在一封電子郵件中表示：“技術指標表明看跌勢頭可能會持續。” 「MACD 表現出越來越負面的勢頭，而 RSI 處於中性水平。布林帶下限仍保持在 56,000 美元左右，表明有可能進一步下跌至該水平。”

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