比特币和美元指数的关键一周

本周的一系列美国经济数据将决定美元是否继续走弱，从而为比特币和其他风险资产带来利好。

is week's slew of U.S. economic data will determine whether Bitcoin continues to weaken, offering a tailwind to BTC and other risk assets.

本周的一系列美国经济数据将决定比特币是否继续走弱，从而为比特币和其他风险资产提供动力。

Bitcoin (BTC) fell over 10% in the seven days to Sept. 1, reversing the preceding week's price bounce as the decline in the dollar index stalled.

截至 9 月 1 日的 7 天内，比特币 (BTC) 下跌超过 10%，扭转了前一周因美元指数跌势停滞而出现的价格反弹。

The slew of U.S. economic data due this week will likely determine whether the dollar resumes the two-month weakening trend, offering a tailwind for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

本周公布的一系列美国经济数据可能会决定美元是否会恢复两个月来的疲软趋势，从而为包括加密货币在内的风险资产带来推动力。

The economic releases start Tuesday with the Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for August. According to ForexLive, the consensus is that the index will rise to 47.5 from July's 46.8, which signaled the sharpest contraction in factory activity since November 2023.

经济数据将于周二发布，其中包括供应管理协会 (ISM) 8 月份制造业采购经理人指数 (PMI)。据 ForexLive 称，市场普遍认为该指数将从 7 月的 46.8 升至 47.5，这标志着工厂活动出现 2023 年 11 月以来最严重的收缩。

A weak reading will strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, sending the dollar lower and boosting demand for riskier assets. Interest-rate markets are already pricing a 70% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 30% chance of a 50 basis point cut in September, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

疲软的数据将强化美联储降息的理由，导致美元走低并提振对风险资产的需求。根据芝商所的 FedWatch 工具，利率市场已经预计 9 月份降息 25 个基点的可能性为 70%，降息 50 个基点的可能性为 30%。

"Rate cuts are good for BTC, as it is particularly sensitive to monetary liquidity conditions (seen as a risk asset, with no cash flow or margins to get hit in a slowdown)," Noelle Acheson, author of the popular Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter, said in last week's edition.

“降息对比特币有利，因为它对货币流动性状况特别敏感（被视为风险资产，没有现金流或利润在经济放缓时受到打击）”，《加密货币现在是宏观》一书的作者诺埃尔·艾奇逊时事通讯，在上周的版本中说。

"A weaker U.S. dollar is good for BTC, as it tends to boost monetary liquidity by lowering the cost of capital. Plus, expectations of continued dollar weakness highlight the utility of a dollar hedge and should boost spending power (and hedge interest) in other jurisdictions. And, the dollar is the denominator of the most-quoted pair (BTC/USD)," Acheson wrote.

“美元走软对比特币有利，因为它往往会通过降低资本成本来提高货币流动性。此外，美元持续疲软的预期凸显了美元对冲的效用，并应会提高其他领域的消费能力（和对冲兴趣）而且，美元是引用最多的货币对（BTC/USD）的分母，”艾奇逊写道。

That said, July's weaker-than-expected ISM PMI, released Aug. 1, triggered recession fears, weighing on risk assets even as the dollar dropped. BTC fell 3.7% to $62,300 that day. Traders, therefore, should watch out for a "growth scare" should the PMI come in worse than expected.

尽管如此，8 月 1 日公布的 7 月份 ISM PMI 弱于预期，引发了人们对经济衰退的担忧，尽管美元下跌，但仍对风险资产造成压力。 BTC 当日下跌 3.7% 至 62,300 美元。因此，如果 PMI 数据差于预期，交易者应警惕“增长恐慌”。

"This is a key metric as risk assets moved sharply lower the last time," Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a weekly preview note.

10x Research 创始人马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 在每周预览报告中表示：“这是一个关键指标，因为风险资产上次大幅下跌。”

Nonfarm payrolls due Friday

非农就业数据将于周五公布

ForexLive analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta's weekly preview note echoed the sentiment. "The main culprit might have been the employment sub-index falling to a new 4-year low ahead of the NFP report, which eventually triggered another wave of selling [in risk assets] as it came out weaker than expected across the board," Dellamotta said, referring to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls release.

ForexLive 分析师 Giuseppe Dellamotta 的每周预览报告呼应了这种情绪。 “罪魁祸首可能是就业分类指数在非农就业报告公布之前跌至四年来新低，最终引发了另一波（风险资产）抛售，因为该指数全面弱于预期。”德拉莫塔指的是美国非农就业数据的发布。

Later this week, the focus will shift to the JOLTS job opening data, due Wednesday, ISM services PMI, ADP and weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the main event of the week – the August nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

本周晚些时候，焦点将转向周三公布的 JOLTS 职位空缺数据、周四公布的 ISM 服务业 PMI、ADP 和每周失业救济金申请数据，以及周五公布的本周主要事件——8 月非农就业 (NFP) 报告。

"If the consensus is right about Friday's jobs report (165,000 job gains and a drop in the unemployment rate back to 4.2%), then market pricing will firm up just a 25bp cut as the start to the Fed easing cycle on 18 September," analysts at ING said in Monday's morning note.

“如果周五就业报告的共识是正确的（就业岗位增加 165,000 人，失业率回落至 4.2%），那么随着 9 月 18 日美联储宽松周期的开始，市场定价将仅下调 25 个基点。” ING 分析师在周一早间报告中表示。

However, according to ING's U.S. economists, the payrolls could show additions of just 125,000 and an uptick in the jobless rate to 4.4%, resulting in a continued drop in the U.S. dollar.

然而，根据ING美国经济学家的说法，就业人数可能仅增加125,000人，失业率将上升至4.4%，导致美元持续下跌。

From a technical analysis view point, BTC is on the defensive ahead of the key data releases, with indicators like the MACD histogram pointing to a strengthening of the downside momentum.

从技术分析的角度来看，在关键数据发布之前，BTC处于守势，MACD柱状图等指标表明下行动能正在加强。

"Technical indicators suggest that the bearish momentum may persist," Valentin Fournier, an analyst at research firm BRN, said in an email. "The MACD is showing increasingly negative momentum, while the RSI is at a neutral level. The lower band of the Bollinger Bands remains around $56,000, indicating potential further declines toward this level."

研究公司 BRN 分析师 Valentin Fournier 在一封电子邮件中表示：“技术指标表明看跌势头可能会持续。” “MACD 表现出越来越负面的势头，而 RSI 处于中性水平。布林带下限仍保持在 56,000 美元左右，表明有可能进一步下跌至该水平。”

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Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.

Omkar Godbole 是 CoinDesk 市场团队的联合总编辑。