歷史鏈上指標指導比特幣交易策略

一位分析師根據兩個鏈上指標（淨未實現損失（NUL）和淨未實現利潤（NUP））觀察到的歷史模式，設計了一種基本但可能有利可圖的比特幣交易策略。從歷史上看，NUL 在超過 0.5 時表示買入機會，而 NUP 在高於 0.7 時表示賣出機會。透過在 NUL 確定的低點買入並在 NUP 標記的高點賣出，交易者在歷史上可能已經實現了盈利。然而，這項策略在當前週期的準確性仍有待確定。

Historical On-Chain Indicators Provide Insights for Bitcoin Trading

歷史鏈上指標為比特幣交易提供見解

A comprehensive analysis by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. has unveiled a pragmatic strategy for timing Bitcoin (BTC) purchases and sales based on the historical patterns exhibited by two on-chain indicators: Net Unrealized Loss (NUL) and Net Unrealized Profit (NUP).

CryptoQuant 作者Axel Adler Jr. 的綜合分析揭示了一個實用的策略，根據兩個鏈上指標（淨未實現損失（NUL）和淨未實現利潤（NUP）所顯示的歷史模式）來計時比特幣（ BTC）購買和銷售。

Understanding NUL and NUP

了解 NUL 和 NUP

NUL and NUP are metrics that respectively quantify the aggregate unrealized loss and profit held by Bitcoin investors. They meticulously track the transaction history of each coin in circulation to ascertain its last transacted price. Presuming that the last transfer of each coin represents its final change of ownership, its price at that time serves as its current cost basis.

NUL 和 NUP 是分別量化比特幣投資者持有的未實現損失和利潤總額的指標。他們仔細追蹤流通中的每枚硬幣的交易歷史，以確定其最後的交易價格。假設每枚代幣的最後一次轉讓代表其所有權的最終變更，則其當時的價格將作為其當前的成本基礎。

If the previous price of a coin is lower than Bitcoin's current spot price, it denotes an unrealized gain. NUP calculates this gain by subtracting the two values. Conversely, NUL performs the same calculation for coins with a cost basis exceeding Bitcoin's current value. These indicators then aggregate these values across the total supply and normalize them by Bitcoin's market capitalization.

如果硬幣的先前價格低於比特幣當前的現貨價格，則表示未實現收益。 NUP 透過減去這兩個值來計算該增益。相反，NUL 對成本基礎超過比特幣當前價值的硬幣執行相同的計算。然後，這些指標將總供應量中的這些值進行匯總，並透過比特幣的市值將其標準化。

Historical Patterns in NUL

NUL 中的歷史模式

Historical analysis of NUL reveals a recurrent pattern. Past bear market lows have often coincided with NUL values surpassing 0.5. As per Adler's analysis, this threshold represents a potential buying opportunity. Notably, NUL has recently hovered around zero, indicating negligible unrealized losses among investors, which aligns with Bitcoin's recent all-time highs (ATHs) that inherently lead to universal profitability.

NUL 的歷史分析揭示了一種反覆出現的模式。過去的熊市低點通常與 NUL 值超過 0.5 一致。根據阿德勒的分析，這個閾值代表了潛在的購買機會。值得注意的是，NUL 最近徘徊在零附近，表明投資者的未實現損失可以忽略不計，這與比特幣最近的歷史高點（ATH）一致，這本質上會帶來普遍的盈利能力。

Historical Patterns in NUP

NUP 中的歷史模式

Similar to NUL, NUP has historically exhibited patterns around major Bitcoin tops. When NUP exceeds 0.7, it often signals a potential selling opportunity. Currently, NUP is trending upwards but hasn't yet breached the critical 0.7 level. This suggests that the market may not yet be in an overheated state for optimal selling, at least according to this strategy.

與 NUL 類似，NUP 歷史上也表現出圍繞主要比特幣頂部的模式。當 NUP 超過 0.7 時，通常預示著潛在的賣出機會。目前，NUP呈上升趨勢，但尚未突破0.7的關鍵水準。這表明市場可能尚未處於最佳銷售的過熱狀態，至少根據此策略是如此。

Limitations and Considerations

限制和注意事項

It's noteworthy that these indicators have not consistently pinpointed exact market peaks or troughs. NUP, in particular, has sometimes triggered "sell" signals during bull market tops that were not the absolute peak.

值得注意的是，這些指標並沒有一致地準確指出市場的波峰或波谷。尤其是 NUP，有時會在牛市頂部（而非絕對峰值）期間觸發“賣出”信號。

Nevertheless, adhering to the strategy of buying when NUL signals oversold conditions and selling when NUP indicates overbought conditions has historically yielded positive results.

儘管如此，堅持在 NUL 表明超賣情況時買入、在 NUP 表明超買情況時賣出的策略在歷史上已經產生了積極的結果。

Reliability in the Current Market Cycle

當前市場週期的可靠性

While these patterns have held true in past Bitcoin cycles, their applicability in the current cycle remains uncertain. The market's ongoing dynamics and evolving investor behavior may influence the reliability of these indicators.

儘管這些模式在過去的比特幣週期中一直有效，但它們在當前週期中的適用性仍然不確定。市場的持續動態和不斷變化的投資者行為可能會影響這些指標的可靠性。

Current Bitcoin Market Conditions

當前的比特幣市場狀況

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $69,400, experiencing a 2% decline over the past 24 hours. Despite this recent dip, Bitcoin's overall trend remains bullish, with analysts speculating on the possibility of further price appreciation in the coming months.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格約為 69,400 美元，在過去 24 小時內下跌了 2%。儘管最近出現下跌，但比特幣的整體趨勢仍然看漲，分析師猜測未來幾個月價格可能會進一步上漲。

Conclusion

結論

The historical patterns in Bitcoin's NUL and NUP metrics provide valuable insights for traders seeking to identify potential buying and selling opportunities. While these indicators have not been foolproof, they offer a structured approach to market timing that has historically generated profits. However, it's essential to exercise caution and consider the limitations of these indicators, as well as the broader market context, when making investment decisions.

比特幣 NUL 和 NUP 指標的歷史模式為尋求識別潛在買賣機會的交易者提供了寶貴的見解。雖然這些指標並非萬無一失，但它們提供了一種結構化的市場時機選擇方法，在歷史上曾經產生過利潤。然而，在做出投資決策時，必須謹慎行事並考慮這些指標的局限性以及更廣泛的市場背景。