比特幣（BTC）投資者可能不會完全感受到它，但是BTC是一個相對較不錯的選擇

比特幣（BTC）投資者可能不會完全感受到這一點，但是自從特朗普總統上週的關稅計劃帶來了歷史性損失以來，BTC一直是一個相對不錯的選擇

Bitcoin investors may not exactly feel it, but BTC has been a relatively good bet since President Trump's tariff plans last week resulted in historic losses in traditional markets.

比特幣投資者可能不會完全感受到這一點，但是自從特朗普總統上週的關稅計劃導致傳統市場造成了歷史性損失以來，BTC一直是一個相對不錯的選擇。

While stocks and other mainstream investments have been falling off a cliff since the “Liberation Day” announcement April 2, bitcoin has remained relatively steady losing “only” 8% of its value.

自4月2日“解放日”宣布以來，股票和其他主流投資一直從懸崖上脫落，但比特幣仍然相對穩定地損失了其價值的8％。

“I think this is the most bullish 8% drawdown I’ve ever seen in bitcoin,” said Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, a leading crypto investment manager.

領先的加密投資經理Grayscale研究主管Zach Pandl說：“我認為這是我在比特幣中見過的最看漲的8％的降低。”

Based on historical data, you would expect bitcoin to have three times the volatility of the Nasdaq, Pandl said. And yet while the Nasdaq was down 15% at the beginning of trading April 8 (compared to April 2), bitcoin was nowhere near 45% down.

Pandl說，根據歷史數據，您希望比特幣具有納斯達克的波動性的三倍。然而，儘管納斯達克在4月8日開始交易時（與4月2日相比）下降了15％，但比特幣遠未下降45％。

In other words, an 8% decline is a positive as historical patterns predicted a far steeper tumble.

換句話說，由於歷史模式預測跌倒得多，下降8％是積極的。

“I think crypto investors should be extremely pleased with the modest pullback in bitcoin,” Pandl, a former analyst at Goldman Sachs, told CoinDesk.

“我認為加密貨幣投資者應該對比特幣中適度的回調感到非常滿意，”戈德曼·薩克斯（Goldman Sachs）的前分析師潘德（Pandl）告訴Coindesk。

“It reflects that tariffs — while they are a short term risk-off event for markets — are probably to be something that’s supportive for bitcoin adoption in the longer run. I think the relatively moderate drawdown reflects that,” he added.

他補充說：“這反映出關稅 - 雖然是市場的短期風險事件，但從長遠來看，關稅可能是支持比特幣採用的東西。我認為相對中等的縮水反映了這一點。”

Pandl is bullish on bitcoin in an environment where the dollar is potentially losing its place as a global reserve currency.

在美元可能失去其作為全球儲備貨幣的地位的環境中，Pandl對比特幣看漲。

“Stagflation is going to be negative for stocks and bonds, and, historically, that has been positive for scarce commodities. Investors who are concerned by stagflation are looking for alternative assets that can drive returns. In traditional markets that might be gold or copper, and bitcoin.”

“停滯對股票和債券將是負面的，從歷史上看，這對稀缺的商品是積極的。那些關心攤販的投資者正在尋找可以驅動回報的替代資產。在傳統市場中，可能是黃金或銅，銅和比特幣。”

Pandl says bitcoin’s relatively good performance reflects a rotation away from large-cap tech stocks towards commodity assets like bitcoin. You can see this in the performance of bitcoin against Roundhill “Magnificent 7 ETF.” You can now buy more of that ETF with one bitcoin compared to a week ago.

Pandl說，比特幣的性能相對較好，反映了從大型技術股票向比特幣等商品資產的輪換。您可以在比特幣對Roundhill“ Magnificent 7 Etf”的性能中看到這一點。與一周前相比，您現在可以用比特幣購買更多的ETF。

To those who subscribe to Bitcoin’s long-term investment thesis as a safe haven in uncertain times, the last few days have been a test case where bitcoin is winning. In theory, say these advocates, bitcoin should benefit as investors seek alternatives to dollars in times of stress.

對於那些在不確定時期作為避風港的長期投資論文的人來說，最近幾天是比特幣贏得的測試案例。這些擁護者說，從理論上講，比特幣應該受益，因為投資者在壓力時尋求替代美元的替代品。

“If you believe that the erosion of the dollar’s position is part of the bitcoin thesis, then your conviction in that thesis in the last week should have gone up,” Pandl says.

Pandl說：“如果您認為美元的立場侵蝕是比特幣論文的一部分，那麼您在上週對這一論文的信念就應該增加了。”

He expects bitcoin’s price to rise in the medium-term, reaching new all-time-highs this year.

他預計比特幣在中期的價格會上漲，今年達到了新的歷史最高水平。

“The price of bitcoin is down but conviction is up and there’s no need to change the medium term price outlook,” he said.

他說：“比特幣的價格降低了，但信念上升了，無需改變中期價格前景。”