比特币（BTC）投资者可能不会完全感受到它，但是BTC是一个相对较不错的选择

比特币（BTC）投资者可能不会完全感受到这一点，但是自从特朗普总统上周的关税计划带来了历史性损失以来，BTC一直是一个相对不错的选择

Bitcoin investors may not exactly feel it, but BTC has been a relatively good bet since President Trump's tariff plans last week resulted in historic losses in traditional markets.

比特币投资者可能不会完全感受到这一点，但是自从特朗普总统上周的关税计划导致传统市场造成了历史性损失以来，BTC一直是一个相对不错的选择。

While stocks and other mainstream investments have been falling off a cliff since the “Liberation Day” announcement April 2, bitcoin has remained relatively steady losing “only” 8% of its value.

自4月2日“解放日”宣布以来，股票和其他主流投资一直从悬崖上脱落，但比特币仍然相对稳定地损失了其价值的8％。

“I think this is the most bullish 8% drawdown I’ve ever seen in bitcoin,” said Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, a leading crypto investment manager.

领先的加密投资经理Grayscale研究主管Zach Pandl说：“我认为这是我在比特币中见过的最看涨的8％的降低。”

Based on historical data, you would expect bitcoin to have three times the volatility of the Nasdaq, Pandl said. And yet while the Nasdaq was down 15% at the beginning of trading April 8 (compared to April 2), bitcoin was nowhere near 45% down.

Pandl说，根据历史数据，您希望比特币具有纳斯达克的波动性的三倍。然而，尽管纳斯达克在4月8日开始交易时（与4月2日相比）下降了15％，但比特币远未下降45％。

In other words, an 8% decline is a positive as historical patterns predicted a far steeper tumble.

换句话说，由于历史模式预测跌倒得多，下降8％是积极的。

“I think crypto investors should be extremely pleased with the modest pullback in bitcoin,” Pandl, a former analyst at Goldman Sachs, told CoinDesk.

“我认为加密货币投资者应该对比特币中适度的回调感到非常满意，”戈德曼·萨克斯（Goldman Sachs）的前分析师潘德（Pandl）告诉Coindesk。

“It reflects that tariffs — while they are a short term risk-off event for markets — are probably to be something that’s supportive for bitcoin adoption in the longer run. I think the relatively moderate drawdown reflects that,” he added.

他补充说：“这反映出关税 - 虽然是市场的短期风险事件，但从长远来看，关税可能是支持比特币采用的东西。我认为相对中等的缩水反映了这一点。”

Pandl is bullish on bitcoin in an environment where the dollar is potentially losing its place as a global reserve currency.

在美元可能失去其作为全球储备货币的地位的环境中，Pandl对比特币看涨。

“Stagflation is going to be negative for stocks and bonds, and, historically, that has been positive for scarce commodities. Investors who are concerned by stagflation are looking for alternative assets that can drive returns. In traditional markets that might be gold or copper, and bitcoin.”

“停滞对股票和债券将是负面的，从历史上看，这对稀缺的商品是积极的。那些关心摊贩的投资者正在寻找可以驱动回报的替代资产。在传统市场中，可能是黄金或铜，铜和比特币。”

Pandl says bitcoin’s relatively good performance reflects a rotation away from large-cap tech stocks towards commodity assets like bitcoin. You can see this in the performance of bitcoin against Roundhill “Magnificent 7 ETF.” You can now buy more of that ETF with one bitcoin compared to a week ago.

Pandl说，比特币的性能相对较好，反映了从大型技术股票向比特币等商品资产的轮换。您可以在比特币对Roundhill“ Magnificent 7 Etf”的性能中看到这一点。与一周前相比，您现在可以用比特币购买更多的ETF。

To those who subscribe to Bitcoin’s long-term investment thesis as a safe haven in uncertain times, the last few days have been a test case where bitcoin is winning. In theory, say these advocates, bitcoin should benefit as investors seek alternatives to dollars in times of stress.

对于那些在不确定时期作为避风港的长期投资论文的人来说，最近几天是比特币赢得的测试案例。这些拥护者说，从理论上讲，比特币应该受益，因为投资者在压力时寻求替代美元的替代品。

“If you believe that the erosion of the dollar’s position is part of the bitcoin thesis, then your conviction in that thesis in the last week should have gone up,” Pandl says.

Pandl说：“如果您认为美元的立场侵蚀是比特币论文的一部分，那么您在上周对这一论文的信念就应该增加了。”

He expects bitcoin’s price to rise in the medium-term, reaching new all-time-highs this year.

他预计比特币在中期的价格会上涨，今年达到了新的历史最高水平。

“The price of bitcoin is down but conviction is up and there’s no need to change the medium term price outlook,” he said.

他说：“比特币的价格降低了，但信念上升了，无需改变中期价格前景。”