历史链上指标指导比特币交易策略

一位分析师根据两个链上指标（净未实现损失（NUL）和净未实现利润（NUP））观察到的历史模式，设计了一种基本但可能有利可图的比特币交易策略。从历史上看，NUL 在超过 0.5 时表示买入机会，而 NUP 在高于 0.7 时表示卖出机会。通过在 NUL 确定的低点买入并在 NUP 标记的高点卖出，交易者在历史上可能已经实现了盈利。然而，这一策略在当前周期的准确性仍有待确定。

Historical On-Chain Indicators Provide Insights for Bitcoin Trading

历史链上指标为比特币交易提供见解

A comprehensive analysis by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. has unveiled a pragmatic strategy for timing Bitcoin (BTC) purchases and sales based on the historical patterns exhibited by two on-chain indicators: Net Unrealized Loss (NUL) and Net Unrealized Profit (NUP).

CryptoQuant 作者 Axel Adler Jr. 的综合分析揭示了一种实用的策略，根据两个链上指标（净未实现损失（NUL）和净未实现利润（NUP）所显示的历史模式）来计时比特币（BTC）购买和销售。

Understanding NUL and NUP

了解 NUL 和 NUP

NUL and NUP are metrics that respectively quantify the aggregate unrealized loss and profit held by Bitcoin investors. They meticulously track the transaction history of each coin in circulation to ascertain its last transacted price. Presuming that the last transfer of each coin represents its final change of ownership, its price at that time serves as its current cost basis.

NUL 和 NUP 是分别量化比特币投资者持有的未实现损失和利润总额的指标。他们仔细跟踪流通中的每枚硬币的交易历史，以确定其最后的交易价格。假设每枚代币的最后一次转让代表其所有权的最终变更，则其当时的价格将作为其当前的成本基础。

If the previous price of a coin is lower than Bitcoin's current spot price, it denotes an unrealized gain. NUP calculates this gain by subtracting the two values. Conversely, NUL performs the same calculation for coins with a cost basis exceeding Bitcoin's current value. These indicators then aggregate these values across the total supply and normalize them by Bitcoin's market capitalization.

如果硬币的先前价格低于比特币当前的现货价格，则表示未实现收益。 NUP 通过减去这两个值来计算该增益。相反，NUL 对成本基础超过比特币当前价值的硬币执行相同的计算。然后，这些指标将总供应量中的这些值进行汇总，并通过比特币的市值将其标准化。

Historical Patterns in NUL

NUL 中的历史模式

Historical analysis of NUL reveals a recurrent pattern. Past bear market lows have often coincided with NUL values surpassing 0.5. As per Adler's analysis, this threshold represents a potential buying opportunity. Notably, NUL has recently hovered around zero, indicating negligible unrealized losses among investors, which aligns with Bitcoin's recent all-time highs (ATHs) that inherently lead to universal profitability.

NUL 的历史分析揭示了一种反复出现的模式。过去的熊市低点通常与 NUL 值超过 0.5 一致。根据阿德勒的分析，这个阈值代表了潜在的购买机会。值得注意的是，NUL 最近徘徊在零附近，表明投资者的未实现损失可以忽略不计，这与比特币最近的历史高点（ATH）一致，这本质上会带来普遍的盈利能力。

Historical Patterns in NUP

NUP 中的历史模式

Similar to NUL, NUP has historically exhibited patterns around major Bitcoin tops. When NUP exceeds 0.7, it often signals a potential selling opportunity. Currently, NUP is trending upwards but hasn't yet breached the critical 0.7 level. This suggests that the market may not yet be in an overheated state for optimal selling, at least according to this strategy.

与 NUL 类似，NUP 历史上也表现出围绕主要比特币顶部的模式。当 NUP 超过 0.7 时，通常预示着潜在的卖出机会。目前，NUP呈上升趋势，但尚未突破0.7的关键水平。这表明市场可能尚未处于最佳销售的过热状态，至少根据这一策略是这样。

Limitations and Considerations

限制和注意事项

It's noteworthy that these indicators have not consistently pinpointed exact market peaks or troughs. NUP, in particular, has sometimes triggered "sell" signals during bull market tops that were not the absolute peak.

值得注意的是，这些指标并没有始终如一地准确指出市场的波峰或波谷。尤其是 NUP，有时会在牛市顶部（而非绝对峰值）期间触发“卖出”信号。

Nevertheless, adhering to the strategy of buying when NUL signals oversold conditions and selling when NUP indicates overbought conditions has historically yielded positive results.

尽管如此，坚持在 NUL 表明超卖情况时买入、在 NUP 表明超买情况时卖出的策略在历史上已经产生了积极的结果。

Reliability in the Current Market Cycle

当前市场周期的可靠性

While these patterns have held true in past Bitcoin cycles, their applicability in the current cycle remains uncertain. The market's ongoing dynamics and evolving investor behavior may influence the reliability of these indicators.

尽管这些模式在过去的比特币周期中一直有效，但它们在当前周期中的适用性仍然不确定。市场的持续动态和不断变化的投资者行为可能会影响这些指标的可靠性。

Current Bitcoin Market Conditions

当前的比特币市场状况

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $69,400, experiencing a 2% decline over the past 24 hours. Despite this recent dip, Bitcoin's overall trend remains bullish, with analysts speculating on the possibility of further price appreciation in the coming months.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格约为 69,400 美元，在过去 24 小时内下跌了 2%。尽管最近出现下跌，但比特币的整体趋势仍然看涨，分析师猜测未来几个月价格可能进一步上涨。

Conclusion

结论

The historical patterns in Bitcoin's NUL and NUP metrics provide valuable insights for traders seeking to identify potential buying and selling opportunities. While these indicators have not been foolproof, they offer a structured approach to market timing that has historically generated profits. However, it's essential to exercise caution and consider the limitations of these indicators, as well as the broader market context, when making investment decisions.

比特币 NUL 和 NUP 指标的历史模式为寻求识别潜在买卖机会的交易者提供了宝贵的见解。虽然这些指标并非万无一失，但它们提供了一种结构化的市场时机选择方法，这种方法在历史上曾产生过利润。然而，在做出投资决策时，必须谨慎行事并考虑这些指标的局限性以及更广泛的市场背景。