對沖基金空頭押注激增，助長比特幣期貨看跌情緒

根據美國商品期貨交易委員會 (CFTC) 的最新數據，包括對沖基金和商品交易顧問在內的槓桿基金大幅增加了對比特幣期貨的看跌押注。空頭部位的增加符合「基差交易」策略，即投機者利用標的資產和期貨合約之間的價格差異。儘管近期比特幣價格因芝商所期貨相對於現貨市場的持續溢價而下跌，但創紀錄的空頭押注顯示人們對套利交易機會抱有濃厚的興趣。

Surge in Short Bets by Hedge Funds Fuels Bitcoin Futures Bearishness

對沖基金空頭押注激增加劇比特幣期貨看跌

According to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data, leveraged funds, a category that encompasses hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, have escalated their pessimistic stance towards Bitcoin futures.

根據商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）的最新數據，包括對沖基金和商品交易顧問在內的槓桿基金對比特幣期貨的悲觀態度升級。

This trend aligns with the widely employed "basis trade," an arbitrage strategy that leverages price disparities between the underlying asset and futures contracts. The surge in short positions reflects the heightened interest among speculators in exploiting these price differentials.

這種趨勢與廣泛採用的「基差交易」一致，這是一種利用標的資產和期貨合約之間的價格差異的套利策略。空頭部位的激增反映出投機者利用這些價差的興趣日益濃厚。

At the conclusion of the first quarter, short positions held by speculators attained an unprecedented high, as the price rally of the leading cryptocurrency faltered. Leveraged funds expanded their net short positions in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) Bitcoin futures contracts to a record 16,102, surpassing the previous peak set upon the commencement of trading in late 2017. Each of these contracts represents 5 BTC.

第一季末，隨著主要加密貨幣的價格上漲動搖，投機者持有的空頭部位達到了前所未有的高點。槓桿基金將芝加哥商品交易所（CME）比特幣期貨合約的淨空頭部位擴大至創紀錄的16,102份，超過了2017年底交易開始時創下的峰值。每份合約代表5 BTC。

Shorting futures, a strategy entailing the sale of contracts in anticipation of a decline in the underlying asset's price, has gained popularity among carry traders and arbitrageurs, who seek to profit from price discrepancies between the spot and futures markets.

做空期貨是一種在預期標的資產價格下跌時出售合約的策略，在套利交易者和套利者中很受歡迎，他們尋求從現貨和期貨市場之間的價格差異中獲利。

The surge in short wagers suggests a growing appetite among hedge funds for carry trade opportunities, capitalizing on the elevated futures premium despite Bitcoin's recent price correction. After peaking at over $73,500 in March, Bitcoin's momentum waned, yet CME futures have maintained an annualized three-month premium exceeding 10%. This premium offers more favorable returns compared to traditional financial instruments like the 10-year Treasury note, which currently yields approximately 4.36%.

儘管比特幣最近出現價格調整，但空頭押注的激增表明，對沖基金對套利交易機會的興趣日益濃厚，利用了期貨溢價的上漲。在 3 月達到超過 73,500 美元的峰值後，比特幣的勢頭減弱，但 CME 期貨的三個月年化溢價仍保持在 10% 以上。與目前殖利率約 4.36% 的 10 年期公債等傳統金融工具相比，這種溢價提供了更有利的回報。

Beyond the basis trade, recent economic data from the United States and cautious statements by Federal Reserve officials have potentially influenced the bearish positioning of some hedge funds, indicating a cautious approach to interest rate cuts.

除了基差貿易之外，美國近期的經濟數據和聯準會官員的謹慎聲明也可能影響一些對沖基金的看跌立場，顯示對降息採取謹慎態度。

Furthermore, uncertainty surrounds Bitcoin's performance following its imminent block reward halving. Historical data suggests bull runs typically follow halving events, but the introduction of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States and the substantial inflows they have attracted could potentially alter Bitcoin's market dynamics. Experts advise caution against overly relying on historical patterns, citing both these fundamental changes and the limited sample size of previous cycles.

此外，隨著區塊獎勵即將減半，比特幣的表現也存在不確定性。歷史數據表明，牛市通常發生在減半事件之後，但美國現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）的推出及其吸引的大量資金流入可能會改變比特幣的市場動態。專家建議不要過度依賴歷史模式，理由是這些根本變化和先前週期的樣本量有限。

The emergence of spot ETFs and their potential impact on Bitcoin's market have altered the landscape, creating the possibility of a post-halving performance that deviates from historical trends.

現貨ETF的出現及其對比特幣市場的潛在影響改變了比特幣市場格局，創造了減半後表現偏離歷史趨勢的可能性。