对冲基金空头押注激增，助长比特币期货看跌情绪

根据美国商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 的最新数据，包括对冲基金和商品交易顾问在内的杠杆基金大幅增加了对比特币期货的看跌押注。空头头寸的增加符合“基差交易”策略，即投机者利用标的资产和期货合约之间的价格差异。尽管近期比特币价格因芝商所期货相对于现货市场的持续溢价而下跌，但创纪录的空头押注表明人们对套利交易机会抱有浓厚的兴趣。

Surge in Short Bets by Hedge Funds Fuels Bitcoin Futures Bearishness

对冲基金空头押注激增加剧比特币期货看跌

According to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data, leveraged funds, a category that encompasses hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, have escalated their pessimistic stance towards Bitcoin futures.

根据商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的最新数据，包括对冲基金和商品交易顾问在内的杠杆基金对比特币期货的悲观态度有所升级。

This trend aligns with the widely employed "basis trade," an arbitrage strategy that leverages price disparities between the underlying asset and futures contracts. The surge in short positions reflects the heightened interest among speculators in exploiting these price differentials.

这种趋势与广泛采用的“基差交易”一致，这是一种利用标的资产和期货合约之间的价格差异的套利策略。空头头寸的激增反映出投机者利用这些价差的兴趣日益浓厚。

At the conclusion of the first quarter, short positions held by speculators attained an unprecedented high, as the price rally of the leading cryptocurrency faltered. Leveraged funds expanded their net short positions in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) Bitcoin futures contracts to a record 16,102, surpassing the previous peak set upon the commencement of trading in late 2017. Each of these contracts represents 5 BTC.

第一季度末，随着主要加密货币的价格上涨动摇，投机者持有的空头头寸达到了前所未有的高位。杠杆基金将芝加哥商品交易所（CME）比特币期货合约的净空头头寸扩大至创纪录的16,102份，超过了2017年底交易开始时创下的峰值。每份合约代表5 BTC。

Shorting futures, a strategy entailing the sale of contracts in anticipation of a decline in the underlying asset's price, has gained popularity among carry traders and arbitrageurs, who seek to profit from price discrepancies between the spot and futures markets.

做空期货是一种在预期标的资产价格下跌时出售合约的策略，在套利交易者和套利者中很受欢迎，他们寻求从现货和期货市场之间的价格差异中获利。

The surge in short wagers suggests a growing appetite among hedge funds for carry trade opportunities, capitalizing on the elevated futures premium despite Bitcoin's recent price correction. After peaking at over $73,500 in March, Bitcoin's momentum waned, yet CME futures have maintained an annualized three-month premium exceeding 10%. This premium offers more favorable returns compared to traditional financial instruments like the 10-year Treasury note, which currently yields approximately 4.36%.

尽管比特币最近出现价格调整，但空头押注的激增表明，对冲基金对套利交易机会的兴趣日益浓厚，利用了期货溢价的上涨。在 3 月份达到超过 73,500 美元的峰值后，比特币的势头减弱，但 CME 期货的三个月年化溢价仍保持在 10% 以上。与目前收益率约为 4.36% 的 10 年期国债等传统金融工具相比，这种溢价提供了更有利的回报。

Beyond the basis trade, recent economic data from the United States and cautious statements by Federal Reserve officials have potentially influenced the bearish positioning of some hedge funds, indicating a cautious approach to interest rate cuts.

除了基差贸易之外，美国近期的经济数据和美联储官员的谨慎声明也可能影响一些对冲基金的看跌立场，表明对降息采取谨慎态度。

Furthermore, uncertainty surrounds Bitcoin's performance following its imminent block reward halving. Historical data suggests bull runs typically follow halving events, but the introduction of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States and the substantial inflows they have attracted could potentially alter Bitcoin's market dynamics. Experts advise caution against overly relying on historical patterns, citing both these fundamental changes and the limited sample size of previous cycles.

此外，随着区块奖励即将减半，比特币的表现也存在不确定性。历史数据表明，牛市通常发生在减半事件之后，但美国现货交易所交易基金（ETF）的推出及其吸引的大量资金流入可能会改变比特币的市场动态。专家建议不要过度依赖历史模式，理由是这些根本性变化和之前周期的样本量有限。

The emergence of spot ETFs and their potential impact on Bitcoin's market have altered the landscape, creating the possibility of a post-halving performance that deviates from historical trends.

现货ETF的出现及其对比特币市场的潜在影响改变了比特币市场格局，创造了减半后表现偏离历史趋势的可能性。