德國 DAX 40 股指即將突破 20,000 點關鍵里程碑

隨著投資者迎來 2025 年的第一個交易週，德國領先股指 DAX 40 發現自己正在接近 20,000 點的關鍵里程碑。

Germany’s DAX 40 index is expected to open lower on Friday, as the market digests the key psychological level of 20,000 points, which the index managed to breach in the previous session.

德國DAX 40指數預計週五低開，因市場正在消化該指數在前一交易日成功突破的20,000點關鍵心理關卡。

The DAX closed at a record high on Thursday, finally crossing the 20,000-point threshold for the first time this year. The index rose 0.2% to close at 19,996.16 points, as traders returned from the Christmas break.

DAX 週四收盤創下歷史新高，今年終於首次突破 20,000 點大關。隨著交易員從聖誕假期中恢復，該指數上漲 0.2%，收於 19,996.16 點。

Now, as the first trading week of 2025 comes to an end, the market is showing signs of fatigue.

現在，隨著2025年第一個交易週即將結束，市場出現疲態跡象。

Early indications show that the DAX is set to open at 19,982 points, according to IG broker. This marks a slight decrease of 0.21%.

據 IG 經紀人稱，早期跡象顯示 DAX 指數開盤價為 19,982 點。這標誌著小幅下降 0.21%。

After crossing the 20,000-point level on Thursday in a relatively muted session, the index is now trading flat. With many traders still out on vacation, the market is expected to remain subdued as we head into the weekend.

在周四相對平靜的交易中突破 20,000 點水平後，該指數目前持平。由於許多交易商仍在度假，預計週末市場將保持低迷。

However, the performance of the DAX at this pivotal level will be crucial in setting the tone for its direction in early 2025.

然而，DAX 在這一關鍵水平上的表現對於為其 2025 年初的方向定下基調至關重要。

Several macroeconomic factors are also influencing sentiment, including:

一些宏觀經濟因素也在影響情緒，包括：

Rising inflation in Germany, which reached 8.6% in December on an annualized basis.

德國通膨率上升，12 月年化通膨率達 8.6%。

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and its impact on energy prices and supply chains.

烏克蘭持續的衝突及其對能源價格和供應鏈的影響。

Central bank policies and expectations for further interest rate hikes to curb inflation.

央行進一步升息抑制通膨的政策和預期。

From a technical standpoint, the 20,000-point level is a key psychological and technical threshold for the DAX index. A sustained close above this level could instill confidence among bullish traders, while a slip below it may signal caution and invite selling pressure.

從技術面來看，20000點水準是DAX指數的關鍵心理與技術門檻。持續收盤高於該水平可能會給看漲交易者註入信心，而收盤跌破該水平可能表明謹慎並引發拋售壓力。

On the downside, support is seen around 19,750 points, with significant buying interest likely present near the 19,657 level, which aligns with the 50-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average).

下檔方面，支撐位在 19,750 點附近，在 19,657 點附近可能存在大量買盤興趣，該水準與 50 日 EMA（指數移動平均線）一致。

On the upside, a clear break above Thursday's high could set the stage for a rally towards the all-time high of 20,523 points.

從好的方面來看，如果明顯突破週四高點，可能會為反彈至歷史高點 20,523 點奠定基礎。

Despite the DAX's strong start to 2025, the market is still digesting the impact of global trade dynamics and central bank policies. With light trading volumes and the holiday season still in effect, investors are likely to be waiting for clearer signals before making bold directional moves.

儘管 DAX 指數在 2025 年開局強勁，但市場仍在消化全球貿易動態和央行政策的影響。由於交易量清淡且假期仍然有效，投資者可能會等待更明確的信號，然後再採取大膽的方向性行動。

Whether the DAX can firmly establish itself above the 20,000-point barrier will depend on upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments in the weeks ahead.

DAX 指數能否站穩 20,000 點關口之上，將取決於未來幾週即將公佈的經濟數據和地緣政治發展。