德国 DAX 40 股指即将突破 20,000 点关键里程碑

随着投资者迎来 2025 年的第一个交易周，德国领先股指 DAX 40 发现自己正在接近 20,000 点的关键里程碑。

Germany’s DAX 40 index is expected to open lower on Friday, as the market digests the key psychological level of 20,000 points, which the index managed to breach in the previous session.

德国DAX 40指数预计周五低开，因市场正在消化该指数在前一交易日成功突破的20,000点关键心理关口。

The DAX closed at a record high on Thursday, finally crossing the 20,000-point threshold for the first time this year. The index rose 0.2% to close at 19,996.16 points, as traders returned from the Christmas break.

DAX 周四收盘创下历史新高，今年终于首次突破 20,000 点大关。随着交易员从圣诞假期中恢复，该指数上涨 0.2%，收于 19,996.16 点。

Now, as the first trading week of 2025 comes to an end, the market is showing signs of fatigue.

现在，随着2025年第一个交易周即将结束，市场出现疲态迹象。

Early indications show that the DAX is set to open at 19,982 points, according to IG broker. This marks a slight decrease of 0.21%.

据 IG 经纪人称，早期迹象显示 DAX 指数开盘价为 19,982 点。这标志着小幅下降 0.21%。

After crossing the 20,000-point level on Thursday in a relatively muted session, the index is now trading flat. With many traders still out on vacation, the market is expected to remain subdued as we head into the weekend.

在周四相对平静的交易中突破 20,000 点水平后，该指数目前持平。由于许多交易商仍在度假，预计周末市场将保持低迷。

However, the performance of the DAX at this pivotal level will be crucial in setting the tone for its direction in early 2025.

然而，DAX 在这一关键水平上的表现对于为其 2025 年初的方向定下基调至关重要。

Several macroeconomic factors are also influencing sentiment, including:

一些宏观经济因素也在影响情绪，包括：

Rising inflation in Germany, which reached 8.6% in December on an annualized basis.

德国通胀率上升，12 月份年化通胀率达到 8.6%。

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and its impact on energy prices and supply chains.

乌克兰持续的冲突及其对能源价格和供应链的影响。

Central bank policies and expectations for further interest rate hikes to curb inflation.

央行进一步加息抑制通胀的政策和预期。

From a technical standpoint, the 20,000-point level is a key psychological and technical threshold for the DAX index. A sustained close above this level could instill confidence among bullish traders, while a slip below it may signal caution and invite selling pressure.

从技术角度来看，20000点水平是DAX指数的关键心理和技术门槛。持续收盘高于该水平可能会给看涨交易者注入信心，而收盘跌破该水平可能表明谨慎并引发抛售压力。

On the downside, support is seen around 19,750 points, with significant buying interest likely present near the 19,657 level, which aligns with the 50-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average).

下行方面，支撑位在 19,750 点附近，在 19,657 点附近可能存在大量买盘兴趣，该水平与 50 日 EMA（指数移动平均线）一致。

On the upside, a clear break above Thursday's high could set the stage for a rally towards the all-time high of 20,523 points.

从好的方面来看，如果明显突破周四高点，可能会为反弹至历史高点 20,523 点奠定基础。

Despite the DAX's strong start to 2025, the market is still digesting the impact of global trade dynamics and central bank policies. With light trading volumes and the holiday season still in effect, investors are likely to be waiting for clearer signals before making bold directional moves.

尽管 DAX 指数在 2025 年开局强劲，但市场仍在消化全球贸易动态和央行政策的影响。由于交易量清淡且假期仍然有效，投资者可能会等待更明确的信号，然后再采取大胆的方向性行动。

Whether the DAX can firmly establish itself above the 20,000-point barrier will depend on upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments in the weeks ahead.

DAX 指数能否站稳 20,000 点关口之上，将取决于未来几周即将公布的经济数据和地缘政治发展。