美聯儲的2025年削減計劃：這對比特幣和山寨幣價格意味著什麼

比特幣和其他加密貨幣對美聯儲當前的政策遊戲計劃產生了負面反應，但表示計劃仍然可以為這種“風險耗資”資產類別帶來進一步的上漲空間。

Bitcoin price dropped sharply on Jan. 15 following the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s December 2024 Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes.

在美國美聯儲2024年12月的聯邦公開市場委員會會議會議記錄中，比特幣的價格在1月15日急劇下降。

BTC/USD exchange rate fell to as low as $91,220.84 on major cryptocurrency exchanges, marking a drop of over 5% from the opening price of the day. Bitcoin has since stabilized at around $95,000, showing a moderate recovery from the lows of the day.

BTC/USD的匯率在主要加密貨幣交易所的低至91,220.84美元下降，比當天的開放價格下降了5％以上。此後，比特幣穩定在95,000美元左右，顯示了當天的低點。

However, concerns remain high over whether further news about the future direction of interest rates and monetary policy will lead to an additional negative impact on the performance of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

但是，人們擔心有關利率未來方向和貨幣政策的進一步新聞是否會導致對比特幣和其他加密貨幣的績效產生額外的負面影響。

As cryptocurrencies have entered the financial mainstream, they have become increasingly sensitive to policy changes from the Federal Reserve. With this in mind, let’s take a closer look at the latest news from the Fed, and see what it could mean for the performance of both Bitcoins and altcoins in the months ahead.

隨著加密貨幣進入金融主流，它們對美聯儲的政策變化變得越來越敏感。考慮到這一點，讓我們仔細研究美聯儲的最新消息，看看這對未來幾個月的比特幣和山寨幣的表現意味著什麼。

Why Cryptos Fell on The Latest Fed News

為什麼加密蛋糕落在最新的美聯儲新聞上

As revealed in the aforementioned Fed meeting minutes, the central bank once again cut interest rates by 0.25%, or 25 basis points. This was in line with expectations. However, while the latest rate cuts arrived as expected, other takeaways from the meeting minutes caught investors off-guard.

正如上述美聯儲會議記錄中揭示的那樣，中央銀行再次將利率降低了0.25％，即25個基點。這符合期望。但是，儘管最新的削減稅率按預期到達，但會議記錄中的其他收穫使投資者措手不及。

Namely, the Fed’s signaling of its plans to reduce the number of 25-basis point rate cuts in 2025. Before the meeting minutes hit the street, the market was still expecting four such cuts throughout the year. The latest remarks from Fed officials regarding quantitative tightening also suggested that the “Fed pivot” this year will not be as rapid of a shift from hawkish to dovish as previously anticipated.

也就是說，美聯儲對減少2025年降低25個基點點率降低數量的計劃的信號。在會議紀要上街上，市場仍期望全年有4個這樣的削減。美聯儲官員關於定量收緊的最新評論還表明，今年的“美聯儲樞紐”不會像以前預期的那樣從鷹派轉向骯髒的轉變。

Taking this into account, it’s not completely surprising that Bitcoin has once again encountered negative volatility. Nor is it surprising that more volatile altcoins, like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin, have all experienced double-digit declines over the past week. As “risk-on” assets, cryptocurrencies, especially altcoins, perform better during times of accommodative fiscal policy.

考慮到這一點，比特幣再次遇到負面波動並不完全令人驚訝。在過去一周中，以太坊，索拉納和多黴素等揮發性山幣（如以太坊，索拉納和狗狗）都會經歷了兩位數的下降，這也不令人驚訝。隨著“風險持續”資產，加密貨幣，尤其是Altcoins，在適應性財政政策時期表現更好。

Yet while the Fed may be not turning as dovish as previously expected, and is in fact continuing to engage in monetary tightening, the impact of these policy decisions on cryptocurrency prices in 2027 may not be as dire as it seems at first glance.

然而，儘管美聯儲可能不像以前預期的那樣轉向紀念品，並且實際上正在繼續進行貨幣收緊，但這些政策決策對2027年加密貨幣價格的影響可能並不像乍看之下那樣可怕。

What This Means for Bitcoin and Altcoin Prices in 2025

這對2025年的比特幣和山幣價格意味著什麼

Although the cryptocurrency market reacted negatively to the Fed’s current policy gameplan, said plans could still result in further upside for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. For one, the planned implementation of fewer 25 basis-point rates still means a further loosening of monetary policy, helping to justify additional upside for this “risk-on” asset class.

儘管加密貨幣市場對美聯儲當前的政策遊戲計劃有負面反應，但表示計劃仍然可能導致比特幣和其他加密貨幣的進一步上漲。首先，計劃的25個基準利率的實施仍然意味著進一步放鬆貨幣政策，這有助於證明這種“風險歐元”資產類別的額外上行空間是合理的。

Second, with regards to Bitcoin, other positive factors are at play that could drive further upside for the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. These include increased institutional and retail investor allocation, as well as the specter of a more favorable crypto regulatory environment from the incoming Trump administration.

其次，就比特幣而言，其他積極因素正在起作用，這可能會通過市值來推動最大的加密貨幣。其中包括增加機構和散戶投資者的分配，以及來自即將上任的特朗普政府更有利的加密監管環境的幽靈。

Binance CEO Richard Teng commented on what we can expect in the crypto industry in 2025, “We expect to see development across all aspects. Crypto regulation saw great growth across the world in 2024 and we expect to see more in 2025. Given the recent U.S. presidential election and expected crypto regulation from its new government, we expect to see other countries follow the lead from the U.S. and enact more legislation across the world.”

Binance首席執行官Richard Teng評論了我們在2025年在加密貨幣行業中的期望，“我們希望在各個方面看到發展。加密法規在2024年全球範圍內的增長巨大，我們預計將在2025年看到更多。鑑於最近的美國總統大選，並期望其新政府的加密監管，我們希望看到其他國家遵循美國的領導，並頒布更多立法。在世界各地。”

Teng continues, “In terms of institutional interest, financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity entered the crypto business in 2024, and we expect to see more new players next year. More companies are learning about crypto and integrating crypto features like tokenization into their business. This is a trend that has grown for years and we expect to see more development in.”

滕繼續說：“就機構利益而言，貝萊德（Blackrock）和富達（Fidelity）等金融巨頭在2024年開始進入加密貨幣業務，我們希望明年會看到更多的新參與者。越來越多的公司正在學習加密和將諸如令牌化之類的加密功能集成到其業務中。這是多年來發展的趨勢，我們希望看到更多的發展。”

Admittedly, the recently-announced changes to the Fed’s rate cut plans could still negatively impact the performance of altcoins in the short-term. Altcoins are much more sensitive to changes in fiscal policy. Nevertheless, if a bull market continues in Bitcoin, chances are it will spill over into the altcoin space as well. Investors profiting from a continued run up in the price of Bitcoin could cycle their gains into Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and other major and emerging altcoins.

誠然，最近對美聯儲削減計劃的變化仍然可能對短期山寨幣的性能產生負面影響。 AltCoins對財政政策的變化更為敏感。然而，如果牛市在比特幣中繼續進行，它也會溢出到Altcoin空間中。從持續利潤的比特幣價格中獲利的投資者可以將其收益循環到以太坊，XRP，Solana以及其他主要和新興的Altcoins。

The Bottom Line

底線

Over a longer timeframe, the Fed’s decision to more cautiously lower interest rates and loosen fiscal policy may do little to threaten the long-term bull case for cryptocurrencies. Due to a variety of trends, including the proliferation of exchange-traded cryptocurrency investment products, institutional and retail capital inflows into cryptocurrencies are poised to continue.

在更長的時間範圍內，美聯儲決定更加謹慎降低利率和放鬆財政政策可能不會威脅到加密貨幣的長期牛案。由於各種趨勢，包括交易所交易的加密貨幣投資產品的氾濫，機構和零售資本流入加密貨幣的流入有望繼續。

Of course, nothing’s for certain. For instance, following the latest jobs report, there is growing doubt whether the Fed will further walk back its 2025 rate

當然，沒有什麼可以肯定的。例如，遵循最新的工作報告，人們越來越懷疑美聯儲是否會進一步退回其2025年的利率