美联储的2025年削减计划：这对比特币和山寨币价格意味着什么

比特币和其他加密货币对美联储当前的政策游戏计划产生了负面反应，但表示计划仍然可以为这种“风险耗资”资产类别带来进一步的上涨空间。

Bitcoin price dropped sharply on Jan. 15 following the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s December 2024 Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes.

在美国美联储2024年12月的联邦公开市场委员会会议会议记录中，比特币的价格在1月15日急剧下降。

BTC/USD exchange rate fell to as low as $91,220.84 on major cryptocurrency exchanges, marking a drop of over 5% from the opening price of the day. Bitcoin has since stabilized at around $95,000, showing a moderate recovery from the lows of the day.

BTC/USD的汇率在主要加密货币交易所的低至91,220.84美元下降，比当天的开放价格下降了5％以上。此后，比特币稳定在95,000美元左右，显示了当天的低点。

However, concerns remain high over whether further news about the future direction of interest rates and monetary policy will lead to an additional negative impact on the performance of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

但是，人们担心有关利率未来方向和货币政策的进一步新闻是否会导致对比特币和其他加密货币的绩效产生额外的负面影响。

As cryptocurrencies have entered the financial mainstream, they have become increasingly sensitive to policy changes from the Federal Reserve. With this in mind, let’s take a closer look at the latest news from the Fed, and see what it could mean for the performance of both Bitcoins and altcoins in the months ahead.

随着加密货币进入金融主流，它们对美联储的政策变化变得越来越敏感。考虑到这一点，让我们仔细研究美联储的最新消息，看看这对未来几个月的比特币和山寨币的表现意味着什么。

Why Cryptos Fell on The Latest Fed News

为什么加密蛋糕落在最新的美联储新闻上

As revealed in the aforementioned Fed meeting minutes, the central bank once again cut interest rates by 0.25%, or 25 basis points. This was in line with expectations. However, while the latest rate cuts arrived as expected, other takeaways from the meeting minutes caught investors off-guard.

正如上述美联储会议记录中揭示的那样，中央银行再次将利率降低了0.25％，即25个基点。这符合期望。但是，尽管最新的削减税率按预期到达，但会议记录中的其他收获使投资者措手不及。

Namely, the Fed’s signaling of its plans to reduce the number of 25-basis point rate cuts in 2025. Before the meeting minutes hit the street, the market was still expecting four such cuts throughout the year. The latest remarks from Fed officials regarding quantitative tightening also suggested that the “Fed pivot” this year will not be as rapid of a shift from hawkish to dovish as previously anticipated.

也就是说，美联储对减少2025年降低25个基点点率降低数量的计划的信号。在会议纪要上街上，市场仍期望全年有4个这样的削减。美联储官员关于定量收紧的最新评论还表明，今年的“美联储枢纽”不会像以前预期的那样从鹰派转向肮脏的转变。

Taking this into account, it’s not completely surprising that Bitcoin has once again encountered negative volatility. Nor is it surprising that more volatile altcoins, like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin, have all experienced double-digit declines over the past week. As “risk-on” assets, cryptocurrencies, especially altcoins, perform better during times of accommodative fiscal policy.

考虑到这一点，比特币再次遇到负面波动并不完全令人惊讶。在过去一周中，以太坊，索拉纳和多霉素等挥发性山币（如以太坊，索拉纳和狗狗）都会经历了两位数的下降，这也不令人惊讶。随着“风险持续”资产，加密货币，尤其是Altcoins，在适应性财政政策时期表现更好。

Yet while the Fed may be not turning as dovish as previously expected, and is in fact continuing to engage in monetary tightening, the impact of these policy decisions on cryptocurrency prices in 2027 may not be as dire as it seems at first glance.

然而，尽管美联储可能不像以前预期的那样转向纪念品，并且实际上正在继续进行货币收紧，但这些政策决策对2027年加密货币价格的影响可能并不像乍看之下那样可怕。

What This Means for Bitcoin and Altcoin Prices in 2025

这对2025年的比特币和山币价格意味着什么

Although the cryptocurrency market reacted negatively to the Fed’s current policy gameplan, said plans could still result in further upside for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. For one, the planned implementation of fewer 25 basis-point rates still means a further loosening of monetary policy, helping to justify additional upside for this “risk-on” asset class.

尽管加密货币市场对美联储当前的政策游戏计划有负面反应，但表示计划仍然可能导致比特币和其他加密货币的进一步上涨。首先，计划的25个基准利率的实施仍然意味着进一步放松货币政策，这有助于证明这种“风险欧元”资产类别的额外上行空间是合理的。

Second, with regards to Bitcoin, other positive factors are at play that could drive further upside for the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. These include increased institutional and retail investor allocation, as well as the specter of a more favorable crypto regulatory environment from the incoming Trump administration.

其次，就比特币而言，其他积极因素正在起作用，这可能会通过市值来推动最大的加密货币。其中包括增加机构和散户投资者的分配，以及来自即将上任的特朗普政府更有利的加密监管环境的幽灵。

Binance CEO Richard Teng commented on what we can expect in the crypto industry in 2025, “We expect to see development across all aspects. Crypto regulation saw great growth across the world in 2024 and we expect to see more in 2025. Given the recent U.S. presidential election and expected crypto regulation from its new government, we expect to see other countries follow the lead from the U.S. and enact more legislation across the world.”

Binance首席执行官Richard Teng评论了我们在2025年在加密货币行业中的期望，“我们希望在各个方面看到发展。加密法规在2024年全球范围内的增长巨大，我们预计将在2025年看到更多。鉴于最近的美国总统大选，并期望其新政府的加密监管，我们希望看到其他国家遵循美国的领导，并颁布更多立法。在世界各地。”

Teng continues, “In terms of institutional interest, financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity entered the crypto business in 2024, and we expect to see more new players next year. More companies are learning about crypto and integrating crypto features like tokenization into their business. This is a trend that has grown for years and we expect to see more development in.”

滕继续说：“就机构利益而言，贝莱德（Blackrock）和富达（Fidelity）等金融巨头在2024年开始进入加密货币业务，我们希望明年会看到更多的新参与者。越来越多的公司正在学习加密和将诸如令牌化之类的加密功能集成到其业务中。这是多年来发展的趋势，我们希望看到更多的发展。”

Admittedly, the recently-announced changes to the Fed’s rate cut plans could still negatively impact the performance of altcoins in the short-term. Altcoins are much more sensitive to changes in fiscal policy. Nevertheless, if a bull market continues in Bitcoin, chances are it will spill over into the altcoin space as well. Investors profiting from a continued run up in the price of Bitcoin could cycle their gains into Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and other major and emerging altcoins.

诚然，最近对美联储削减计划的变化仍然可能对短期山寨币的性能产生负面影响。 AltCoins对财政政策的变化更为敏感。然而，如果牛市在比特币中继续进行，它也会溢出到Altcoin空间中。从持续利润的比特币价格中获利的投资者可以将其收益循环到以太坊，XRP，Solana以及其他主要和新兴的Altcoins。

The Bottom Line

底线

Over a longer timeframe, the Fed’s decision to more cautiously lower interest rates and loosen fiscal policy may do little to threaten the long-term bull case for cryptocurrencies. Due to a variety of trends, including the proliferation of exchange-traded cryptocurrency investment products, institutional and retail capital inflows into cryptocurrencies are poised to continue.

在更长的时间范围内，美联储决定更加谨慎降低利率和放松财政政策可能不会威胁到加密货币的长期牛案。由于各种趋势，包括交易所交易的加密货币投资产品的泛滥，机构和零售资本流入加密货币的流入有望继续。

Of course, nothing’s for certain. For instance, following the latest jobs report, there is growing doubt whether the Fed will further walk back its 2025 rate

当然，没有什么可以肯定的。例如，遵循最新的工作报告，人们越来越怀疑美联储是否会进一步退回其2025年的利率