與比特幣 (BTC) 和 Solana (SOL) 相比，為什麼以太幣 (ETH) 表現不佳？

以太幣（ETH）在 2024 年的低迷表現讓投資者對其未來產生了質疑。 ETH 曾經是加密領域的先驅，但現在發現自己落後於比特幣 (BTC) 和 Solana (SOL) 等競爭平台。

Despite being a pioneer in the crypto space, Ethereum (ETH) has had a lackluster performance in 2024 compared to Bitcoin (BTC) and other platforms like Solana (SOL). While BTC and SOL have achieved impressive year-to-date (YTD) returns of 64%, Ethereum has only managed 9%.

儘管是加密領域的先驅，但與比特幣 (BTC) 和 Solana (SOL) 等其他平台相比，以太坊 (ETH) 在 2024 年的表現卻乏善可陳。雖然 BTC 和 SOL 年初至今 (YTD) 的回報率高達 64%，但以太坊的回報率僅為 9%。

Several factors have contributed to Ethereum’s struggles, including reduced gas fee burns, rising competition, and changing market dynamics. Here’s a closer look at the primary reasons behind ETH’s underperformance and its potential for recovery.

有幾個因素導致了以太坊的困境，包括燃氣費消耗減少、競爭加劇以及市場動態變化。以下是 ETH 表現不佳背後的主要原因及其復甦潛力的詳細分析。

Key Factors Behind ETH’s Underperformance

ETH表現不佳背後的關鍵因素

1. Ethereum’s Deflationary Model Is Weaker

1.以太坊的通貨緊縮模型較弱

Ethereum’s once-praised deflationary model has been impacted by decreased gas fee burns. The Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1559, introduced in 2021, aimed to reduce supply by burning a portion of transaction fees. However, the rise of layer-2 (L2) solutions like Arbitrum and Base has reduced activity on Ethereum’s main network (layer-1), subsequently lowering gas fees and, in turn, burning less ETH.

以太坊曾經備受讚譽的通貨緊縮模型受到了汽油費消耗減少的影響。 2021 年推出的以太坊改進提案（EIP）1559 旨在透過燃燒部分交易費用來減少供應。然而，Arbitrum 和 Base 等第 2 層 (L2) 解決方案的興起減少了以太坊主網路（第 1 層）上的活動，從而降低了 Gas 費用，進而減少了 ETH 的燃燒。

According to a report from CoinShares, “The rollout of blob space made L2s so much cheaper and so much faster than the L1 that ETH supply destruction has effectively gone to zero,” which has weakened ETH’s deflationary appeal.

根據 CoinShares 的一份報告，“blob 空間的推出使得 L2 比 L1 便宜得多，速度也快得多，以至於 ETH 的供應破壞實際上已為零”，這削弱了 ETH 的通貨緊縮吸引力。

2. Rising Competition from BTC and Other Platforms

2.來自BTC和其他平台的競爭加劇

Ethereum also faces fierce competition from other platforms. Bitcoin, with its capped supply and efficient store-of-value narrative, remains a preferred asset for institutional and retail investors. Solana and other emerging smart contract platforms such as Aptos and Sui are attracting attention due to their performance advantages, offering lower transaction fees and faster processing.

以太坊也面臨來自其他平台的激烈競爭。比特幣以其有限的供應量和高效的價值儲存方式，仍然是機構和散戶投資者的首選資產。 Solana 以及 Aptos 和 Sui 等其他新興智慧合約平台因其效能優勢、提供更低的交易費用和更快的處理速度而受到關注。

10x Research noted that “Solana is achieving a much higher ‘earnings yield,’ as reflected by the fees paid to its protocol,” signaling a notable shift in the market.

10x Research 指出，“Solana 正在實現更高的‘收益率’，正如支付給其協議的費用所反映的那樣”，這標誌著市場的顯著轉變。

3. Limited Investor Interest in ETH

3. 投資者對 ETH 的興趣有限

Ethereum’s supply model has lost some appeal in the investment community. While it was once considered a deflationary asset, reduced burning has led investors to question its scarcity. Bitcoin’s model, characterized by a fixed supply and established inflation controls, continues to draw a larger share of market attention.

以太坊的供應模式在投資界已經失去了一些吸引力。儘管它曾經被認為是通縮資產，但燃燒的減少導致投資者質疑其稀缺性。比特幣的模式以固定供應和既定的通膨控制為特徵，繼續吸引更多市場關注。

4. Institutional Activity and RWA Tokenization

4. 機構活動和 RWA 代幣化

Despite its struggles, Ethereum remains relevant in sectors such as real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. As of November 2024, Ethereum leads the RWA space, with over $3 billion in tokenized assets. Corporations and institutions still choose Ethereum for launching tokenized money market funds and other crypto-based products.

儘管遇到了困難，以太坊在現實世界資產（RWA）代幣化等領域仍然具有重要意義。截至 2024 年 11 月，以太幣在 RWA 領域處於領先地位，擁有超過 30 億美元的代幣化資產。企業和機構仍然選擇以太幣來推出代幣化貨幣市場基金和其他基於加密貨幣的產品。

Important Points to Watch

重要觀察點

Could Ethereum Be a Contrarian Bet?

以太坊會成為逆向賭注嗎？

Some investors see potential in Ethereum as a “contrarian bet.” Matt Hougan of Bitwise Investment recently argued that Ethereum’s core fundamentals remain strong, despite its current market conditions. He compares Ethereum to Microsoft—a reliable, established player overshadowed by newer technologies but still vital to the ecosystem.

一些投資者將以太坊的潛力視為「逆向賭注」。 Bitwise Investment 的 Matt Hougan 最近認為，儘管目前的市場狀況不佳，但以太坊的核心基本面依然強勁。他將以太坊比作微軟——一個可靠的、成熟的參與者，被新技術所掩蓋，但對生態系統仍然至關重要。

Ethereum’s challenges may not be existential; instead, they are part of a broader evolution within the blockchain space. The blockchain continues to be widely used for RWA tokenization and institutional purposes, indicating it still holds intrinsic value.

以太坊的挑戰可能不是存在的；相反，它們是區塊鏈領域更廣泛演變的一部分。區塊鏈繼續廣泛用於 RWA 代幣化和機構目的，表明它仍然具有內在價值。

Conclusion

結論

Ethereum’s path forward depends on several key factors, from regulatory clarity to continued L1 upgrades and market catalysts like the 2024 U.S. presidential election. While ETH has underperformed BTC and SOL, its extensive use in RWA tokenization and institutional interest signals potential for recovery.

以太坊的前進道路取決於幾個關鍵因素，從監管清晰度到持續的 L1 升級以及 2024 年美國總統大選等市場催化劑。雖然 ETH 的表現落後於 BTC 和 SOL，但其在 RWA 代幣化中的廣泛使用和機構興趣表明了其復甦的潛力。

Crypto investors should keep an eye on Ethereum’s ongoing developments and the regulatory landscape. ETH may yet experience a turnaround if favorable conditions align, making it a possible contrarian opportunity in the evolving crypto market.

加密貨幣投資者應密切關注以太坊的持續發展和監管環境。如果有利的條件一致，ETH 可能仍會經歷轉變，這使其成為不斷發展的加密市場中可能的逆勢機會。