与比特币 (BTC) 和 Solana (SOL) 相比，为什么以太坊 (ETH) 表现不佳？

以太坊（ETH）在 2024 年的低迷表现让投资者对其未来产生了质疑。 ETH 曾经是加密领域的先驱，但现在发现自己落后于比特币 (BTC) 和 Solana (SOL) 等竞争平台。

Despite being a pioneer in the crypto space, Ethereum (ETH) has had a lackluster performance in 2024 compared to Bitcoin (BTC) and other platforms like Solana (SOL). While BTC and SOL have achieved impressive year-to-date (YTD) returns of 64%, Ethereum has only managed 9%.

尽管是加密领域的先驱，但与比特币 (BTC) 和 Solana (SOL) 等其他平台相比，以太坊 (ETH) 在 2024 年的表现却乏善可陈。虽然 BTC 和 SOL 年初至今 (YTD) 的回报率高达 64%，但以太坊的回报率仅为 9%。

Several factors have contributed to Ethereum’s struggles, including reduced gas fee burns, rising competition, and changing market dynamics. Here’s a closer look at the primary reasons behind ETH’s underperformance and its potential for recovery.

有几个因素导致了以太坊的困境，包括燃气费消耗减少、竞争加剧以及市场动态变化。以下是 ETH 表现不佳背后的主要原因及其复苏潜力的详细分析。

Key Factors Behind ETH’s Underperformance

ETH表现不佳背后的关键因素

1. Ethereum’s Deflationary Model Is Weaker

1.以太坊的通货紧缩模型较弱

Ethereum’s once-praised deflationary model has been impacted by decreased gas fee burns. The Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1559, introduced in 2021, aimed to reduce supply by burning a portion of transaction fees. However, the rise of layer-2 (L2) solutions like Arbitrum and Base has reduced activity on Ethereum’s main network (layer-1), subsequently lowering gas fees and, in turn, burning less ETH.

以太坊曾经备受赞誉的通货紧缩模型受到了汽油费消耗减少的影响。 2021 年推出的以太坊改进提案（EIP）1559 旨在通过燃烧部分交易费用来减少供应。然而，Arbitrum 和 Base 等第 2 层 (L2) 解决方案的兴起减少了以太坊主网络（第 1 层）上的活动，从而降低了 Gas 费用，进而减少了 ETH 的燃烧。

According to a report from CoinShares, “The rollout of blob space made L2s so much cheaper and so much faster than the L1 that ETH supply destruction has effectively gone to zero,” which has weakened ETH’s deflationary appeal.

根据 CoinShares 的一份报告，“blob 空间的推出使得 L2 比 L1 便宜得多，速度也快得多，以至于 ETH 的供应破坏实际上已为零”，这削弱了 ETH 的通货紧缩吸引力。

2. Rising Competition from BTC and Other Platforms

2.来自BTC和其他平台的竞争加剧

Ethereum also faces fierce competition from other platforms. Bitcoin, with its capped supply and efficient store-of-value narrative, remains a preferred asset for institutional and retail investors. Solana and other emerging smart contract platforms such as Aptos and Sui are attracting attention due to their performance advantages, offering lower transaction fees and faster processing.

以太坊还面临着来自其他平台的激烈竞争。比特币以其有限的供应量和高效的价值储存方式，仍然是机构和散户投资者的首选资产。 Solana 以及 Aptos 和 Sui 等其他新兴智能合约平台因其性能优势、提供更低的交易费用和更快的处理速度而受到关注。

10x Research noted that “Solana is achieving a much higher ‘earnings yield,’ as reflected by the fees paid to its protocol,” signaling a notable shift in the market.

10x Research 指出，“Solana 正在实现更高的‘收益率’，正如支付给其协议的费用所反映的那样”，这标志着市场的显着转变。

3. Limited Investor Interest in ETH

3. 投资者对 ETH 的兴趣有限

Ethereum’s supply model has lost some appeal in the investment community. While it was once considered a deflationary asset, reduced burning has led investors to question its scarcity. Bitcoin’s model, characterized by a fixed supply and established inflation controls, continues to draw a larger share of market attention.

以太坊的供应模式在投资界已经失去了一些吸引力。尽管它曾经被认为是通缩资产，但燃烧的减少导致投资者质疑其稀缺性。比特币的模式以固定供应和既定的通胀控制为特征，继续吸引更多市场关注。

4. Institutional Activity and RWA Tokenization

4. 机构活动和 RWA 代币化

Despite its struggles, Ethereum remains relevant in sectors such as real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. As of November 2024, Ethereum leads the RWA space, with over $3 billion in tokenized assets. Corporations and institutions still choose Ethereum for launching tokenized money market funds and other crypto-based products.

尽管遇到了困难，以太坊在现实世界资产（RWA）代币化等领域仍然具有重要意义。截至 2024 年 11 月，以太坊在 RWA 领域处于领先地位，拥有超过 30 亿美元的代币化资产。企业和机构仍然选择以太坊来推出代币化货币市场基金和其他基于加密货币的产品。

Important Points to Watch

重要观察点

Could Ethereum Be a Contrarian Bet?

以太坊会成为逆向赌注吗？

Some investors see potential in Ethereum as a “contrarian bet.” Matt Hougan of Bitwise Investment recently argued that Ethereum’s core fundamentals remain strong, despite its current market conditions. He compares Ethereum to Microsoft—a reliable, established player overshadowed by newer technologies but still vital to the ecosystem.

一些投资者将以太坊的潜力视为“逆向赌注”。 Bitwise Investment 的 Matt Hougan 最近认为，尽管目前的市场状况不佳，但以太坊的核心基本面依然强劲。他将以太坊比作微软——一个可靠的、成熟的参与者，被新技术所掩盖，但对生态系统仍然至关重要。

Ethereum’s challenges may not be existential; instead, they are part of a broader evolution within the blockchain space. The blockchain continues to be widely used for RWA tokenization and institutional purposes, indicating it still holds intrinsic value.

以太坊的挑战可能不是存在的；相反，它们是区块链领域更广泛演变的一部分。区块链继续广泛用于 RWA 代币化和机构目的，表明它仍然具有内在价值。

Conclusion

结论

Ethereum’s path forward depends on several key factors, from regulatory clarity to continued L1 upgrades and market catalysts like the 2024 U.S. presidential election. While ETH has underperformed BTC and SOL, its extensive use in RWA tokenization and institutional interest signals potential for recovery.

以太坊的前进道路取决于几个关键因素，从监管清晰度到持续的 L1 升级以及 2024 年美国总统大选等市场催化剂。虽然 ETH 的表现落后于 BTC 和 SOL，但其在 RWA 代币化中的广泛使用和机构兴趣表明了其复苏的潜力。

Crypto investors should keep an eye on Ethereum’s ongoing developments and the regulatory landscape. ETH may yet experience a turnaround if favorable conditions align, making it a possible contrarian opportunity in the evolving crypto market.

加密货币投资者应密切关注以太坊的持续发展和监管环境。如果有利的条件一致，ETH 可能仍会经历转变，这使其成为不断发展的加密市场中可能的逆势机会。