以太坊（ETH）價格上漲取決於交易費用的降低和機構採用率的提高——市場前景

10 月 30 日，以太幣 (ETH) 價格上漲至 2,700 美元，創下十天來的最高水平，但 10 月 31 日的強烈拒絕將其價格推低至 2,550 美元。

The price of Ether (ETH) has been unable to break above a key resistance level despite a recent rally, and some traders are now speculating that institutional demand is waning. However, a closer examination of onchain metrics and market trends suggests that other factors, such as high transaction fees and subpar institutional adoption, may be at play.

儘管最近出現反彈，但以太坊（ETH）的價格一直無法突破關鍵阻力位，一些交易員現在猜測機構需求正在減弱。然而，對鏈上指標和市場趨勢的仔細研究表明，其他因素，例如高額交易費用和低於標準的機構採用率，可能也在發揮作用。

Ether’s inability to trade above $2,700 is not fully explained by weak institutional demand, but rather a consequence. For example, Solana has overtaken Ethereum as the leading blockchain in decentralized application (DApp) transaction volumes.

以太幣無法在 2,700 美元以上交易並不能完全解釋為機構需求疲軟，而是一個結果。例如，Solana 已超越以太坊，成為去中心化應用程式 (DApp) 交易量方面領先的區塊鏈。

Recent data shows Solana leading in decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes, but critics argue that its network relies heavily on memecoin trading activity, which spiked in October. In contrast, Ethereum maintains robust demand from established decentralized finance (DeFi) applications like Balancer, Curve, Pendle, and Ether.fi.

最近的數據顯示 Solana 在去中心化交易所 (DEX) 交易量方面處於領先地位，但批評者認為其網路嚴重依賴 memecoin 交易活動，該交易活動在 10 月激增。相比之下，以太坊保持著來自 Balancer、Curve、Pendle 和 Ether.fi 等成熟去中心化金融 (DeFi) 應用程式的強勁需求。

When layer-2 volumes are combined, such as those from Base, Arbitrum, Polygon, and Avalanche, Ethereum’s dominance becomes even more apparent. This is also seen in total value locked (TVL), where Ethereum’s base layer holds $48.8 billion compared to Solana’s $6.27 billion. Hence, even if memecoin mania continues, it only accounts for a small portion of the broader DApps market.

當第 2 層卷（例如來自 Base、Arbitrum、Polygon 和 Avalanche 的捲）組合在一起時，以太坊的主導地位變得更加明顯。這也體現在總鎖定價值 (TVL) 上，以太坊基礎層持有 488 億美元，而 Solana 為 62.7 億美元。因此，即使 memecoin 狂熱持續下去，它也只佔更廣泛的 DApp 市場的一小部分。

Despite a healthy $116 billion in onchain DApp volume over 30 days, according to DappRadar, Ethereum’s transaction fees have remained largely flat. Data from StakingRewards shows a 3.4% reward rate for ETH staking, compared to Solana’s 6.5% and Tron’s 4.5%. As a result, Ethereum has seen a net withdrawal of 180,000 ETH from staking over the same period.

根據 DappRadar 的數據，儘管 30 天內鏈上 DApp 交易量達到 1,160 億美元，但以太坊的交易費用基本上保持不變。 StakeRewards 的數據顯示，ETH 質押獎勵率為 3.4%，而 Solana 為 6.5%，Tron 為 4.5%。結果，以太坊同期從質押中淨提取了 180,000 ETH。

Top blockchains staking data. Source: StakingRewards

頂級區塊鏈質押數據。來源：StakeRewards

This issue is being addressed by Ethereum developers with the upcoming Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 7742, which will introduce dynamic blob (temporary data layer) costs and maximum values. Vitalik Buterin has discussed the shift from a fixed blob count, warning that constant operation at full capacity could hinder scalability.

以太坊開發人員正在透過即將發布的以太坊改進提案 (EIP) 7742 來解決這個問題，該提案將引入動態 blob（臨時資料層）成本和最大值。 Vitalik Buterin 討論了從固定 blob 計數的轉變，警告說持續滿載運行可能會阻礙可擴展性。

The anticipated Ethereum Pectra upgrade, expected in Q1 2025, aims to increase the maximum block size to 2.7 megabytes from the current 1 megabyte, as outlined in EIP-7623. The ongoing debate is how to reconcile the demand for lower-cost transactions with the need to adequately reward ETH staking.

正如 EIP-7623 所述，預期的以太坊 Pectra 升級預計在 2025 年第一季進行，旨在將最大區塊大小從目前的 1 兆位元組增加到 2.7 兆位元組。持續的爭論是如何協調低成本交易的需求與充分獎勵 ETH 質押的需求。

Relative to its price performance in 2021, Ether’s 40% gain in 2022 is considered dull by some institutional investors. This is especially true considering Bitcoin (BTC) has clocked a 2022 gain of over 300% as of Oct. 31.

相對於 2021 年的價格表現，以太幣 2022 年 40% 的漲幅被一些機構投資者認為平淡。考慮到截至 10 月 31 日，比特幣 (BTC) 在 2022 年的漲幅已超過 300%，這一點尤其如此。

After the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission blocked requests for spot Ethereum ETFs that would use staking strategies, traders are left with more complex and less accessible derivatives to gauge institutional interest in ETH.

在美國證券交易委員會阻止了使用質押策略的以太坊 ETF 現貨請求後，交易者只能使用更複雜、更難取得的衍生性商品來衡量機構對 ETH 的興趣。

In contrast, Bitcoin’s narrative as a hedge against inflation and an instrument of monetary freedom has resonated with some of the world’s largest professional investors, such as BlackRock and Renaissance Technologies. They have disclosed purchasing large amounts of BTC in the past.

相較之下，比特幣作為通膨對沖工具和貨幣自由工具的說法引起了一些全球最大的專業投資者的共鳴，例如貝萊德和文藝復興科技公司。他們曾透露過去購買了大量比特幣。

After being hailed as "ultrasound money" by its proponents, the Ethereum network now faces challenges with increasing supply and over-optimization for layer-2 activities, which, while beneficial operationally, may compromise the sustainability of security. As such, a sustained ETH price rally could hinge on significant modifications to the network's architecture.

在被其支持者譽為「超音波貨幣」之後，以太坊網路現在面臨著供應增加和第 2 層活動過度優化的挑戰，雖然在操作上有利，但可能會損害安全的可持續性。因此，ETH 價格的持續上漲可能取決於網路架構的重大修改。