以太坊（ETH）价格上涨取决于交易费用的降低和机构采用率的提高——市场前景

10 月 30 日，以太币 (ETH) 价格上涨至 2,700 美元，创下十天来的最高水平，但 10 月 31 日的强烈拒绝将其价格推低至 2,550 美元。

The price of Ether (ETH) has been unable to break above a key resistance level despite a recent rally, and some traders are now speculating that institutional demand is waning. However, a closer examination of onchain metrics and market trends suggests that other factors, such as high transaction fees and subpar institutional adoption, may be at play.

尽管最近出现反弹，但以太坊（ETH）的价格一直无法突破关键阻力位，一些交易员现在猜测机构需求正在减弱。然而，对链上指标和市场趋势的仔细研究表明，其他因素，例如高额交易费用和低于标准的机构采用率，可能也在发挥作用。

Ether’s inability to trade above $2,700 is not fully explained by weak institutional demand, but rather a consequence. For example, Solana has overtaken Ethereum as the leading blockchain in decentralized application (DApp) transaction volumes.

以太币无法在 2,700 美元以上交易并不能完全解释为机构需求疲软，而是一个结果。例如，Solana 已超越以太坊，成为去中心化应用程序 (DApp) 交易量方面领先的区块链。

Recent data shows Solana leading in decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes, but critics argue that its network relies heavily on memecoin trading activity, which spiked in October. In contrast, Ethereum maintains robust demand from established decentralized finance (DeFi) applications like Balancer, Curve, Pendle, and Ether.fi.

最近的数据显示 Solana 在去中心化交易所 (DEX) 交易量方面处于领先地位，但批评者认为其网络严重依赖 memecoin 交易活动，该交易活动在 10 月份激增。相比之下，以太坊保持着来自 Balancer、Curve、Pendle 和 Ether.fi 等成熟去中心化金融 (DeFi) 应用程序的强劲需求。

When layer-2 volumes are combined, such as those from Base, Arbitrum, Polygon, and Avalanche, Ethereum’s dominance becomes even more apparent. This is also seen in total value locked (TVL), where Ethereum’s base layer holds $48.8 billion compared to Solana’s $6.27 billion. Hence, even if memecoin mania continues, it only accounts for a small portion of the broader DApps market.

当将第 2 层卷（例如来自 Base、Arbitrum、Polygon 和 Avalanche 的卷）组合在一起时，以太坊的主导地位变得更加明显。这也体现在总锁定价值 (TVL) 上，以太坊基础层持有 488 亿美元，而 Solana 为 62.7 亿美元。因此，即使 memecoin 狂热持续下去，它也只占更广泛的 DApp 市场的一小部分。

Despite a healthy $116 billion in onchain DApp volume over 30 days, according to DappRadar, Ethereum’s transaction fees have remained largely flat. Data from StakingRewards shows a 3.4% reward rate for ETH staking, compared to Solana’s 6.5% and Tron’s 4.5%. As a result, Ethereum has seen a net withdrawal of 180,000 ETH from staking over the same period.

根据 DappRadar 的数据，尽管 30 天内链上 DApp 交易量达到 1160 亿美元，但以太坊的交易费用基本保持不变。 StakeRewards 的数据显示，ETH 质押奖励率为 3.4%，而 Solana 为 6.5%，Tron 为 4.5%。结果，以太坊同期从质押中净提取了 180,000 ETH。

Top blockchains staking data. Source: StakingRewards

顶级区块链质押数据。资料来源：StakeRewards

This issue is being addressed by Ethereum developers with the upcoming Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 7742, which will introduce dynamic blob (temporary data layer) costs and maximum values. Vitalik Buterin has discussed the shift from a fixed blob count, warning that constant operation at full capacity could hinder scalability.

以太坊开发人员正在通过即将发布的以太坊改进提案 (EIP) 7742 来解决这个问题，该提案将引入动态 blob（临时数据层）成本和最大值。 Vitalik Buterin 讨论了从固定 blob 计数的转变，警告说持续满负荷运行可能会阻碍可扩展性。

The anticipated Ethereum Pectra upgrade, expected in Q1 2025, aims to increase the maximum block size to 2.7 megabytes from the current 1 megabyte, as outlined in EIP-7623. The ongoing debate is how to reconcile the demand for lower-cost transactions with the need to adequately reward ETH staking.

正如 EIP-7623 中所述，预期的以太坊 Pectra 升级预计在 2025 年第一季度进行，旨在将最大区块大小从当前的 1 兆字节增加到 2.7 兆字节。持续的争论是如何协调低成本交易的需求与充分奖励 ETH 质押的需求。

Relative to its price performance in 2021, Ether’s 40% gain in 2022 is considered dull by some institutional investors. This is especially true considering Bitcoin (BTC) has clocked a 2022 gain of over 300% as of Oct. 31.

相对于 2021 年的价格表现，以太坊 2022 年 40% 的涨幅被一些机构投资者认为平淡。考虑到截至 10 月 31 日，比特币 (BTC) 在 2022 年的涨幅已超过 300%，这一点尤其如此。

After the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission blocked requests for spot Ethereum ETFs that would use staking strategies, traders are left with more complex and less accessible derivatives to gauge institutional interest in ETH.

在美国证券交易委员会阻止了使用质押策略的以太坊 ETF 现货请求后，交易者只能使用更复杂、更难获取的衍生品来衡量机构对 ETH 的兴趣。

In contrast, Bitcoin’s narrative as a hedge against inflation and an instrument of monetary freedom has resonated with some of the world’s largest professional investors, such as BlackRock and Renaissance Technologies. They have disclosed purchasing large amounts of BTC in the past.

相比之下，比特币作为通胀对冲工具和货币自由工具的说法引起了一些全球最大的专业投资者的共鸣，例如贝莱德和文艺复兴科技公司。他们曾透露过去购买了大量比特币。

After being hailed as "ultrasound money" by its proponents, the Ethereum network now faces challenges with increasing supply and over-optimization for layer-2 activities, which, while beneficial operationally, may compromise the sustainability of security. As such, a sustained ETH price rally could hinge on significant modifications to the network's architecture.

在被其支持者誉为“超声波货币”之后，以太坊网络现在面临着供应增加和第 2 层活动过度优化的挑战，这虽然在操作上有利，但可能会损害安全的可持续性。因此，ETH 价格的持续上涨可能取决于对网络架构的重大修改。