經濟數據削弱降息希望，加密貨幣波動

在美國經濟報告顯示第一季成長低於預期後，比特幣和以太坊價格週四下跌。經濟分析局 (BEA) 報告 GDP 年化成長率為 1.6%，低於經濟學家預測的 2.2%。儘管住宅建設和消費者支出激增，但出口和庫存卻下降。報告也顯示核心個人消費支出（PCE）成長3.7%，可能影響聯準會未來的降息計畫。

Economic Data Casts Doubt on Fed's Rate Cut Expectations, Cryptocurrency Markets Wobble

經濟數據對聯準會降息預期產生質疑，加密貨幣市場波動

New York, United States - The release of key economic data on Thursday sent shockwaves through financial markets, including the cryptocurrency sector, as the U.S. economy's slower-than-expected growth in the first quarter dampened optimism for an imminent rate cut.

美國紐約 - 週四公佈的關鍵經濟數據給包括加密貨幣行業在內的金融市場帶來衝擊，因為美國第一季經濟成長低於預期，削弱了人們對即將降息的樂觀情緒。

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annualized pace of 1.6% during the January-March period, falling short of economists' expectations of a 2.2% increase. This slowdown marks a significant departure from the previous six quarters, which saw GDP growth consistently exceeding 2% each quarter.

據美國經濟分析局(BEA)稱，1月至3月期間，美國國內生產毛額(GDP)年化成長率為1.6%，低於經濟學家預期的2.2%。這次放緩標誌著與前六個季度的顯著背離，前六個季度每季的 GDP 成長持續超過 2%。

The muted GDP growth was largely attributed to a decline in exports and a reduction in inventory stockpiles, which offset a jump in residential construction and increased consumer spending. The report's findings came on the heels of an impressive 3.4% annualized growth rate recorded in the final quarter of 2023.

GDP成長疲軟主要是由於出口下降和庫存減少，抵消了住宅建設的成長和消費者支出的增加。該報告的調查結果是在 2023 年最後一個季度實現令人印象深刻的 3.4% 的年化成長率之後發布的。

In the aftermath of the GDP release, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, experienced a slight decline. Bitcoin dipped to $64,690, while Ethereum fell to $3,160, reflecting the broader market sentiment.

GDP發布後，市值最大的兩種加密貨幣比特幣和以太幣的價格出現小幅下跌。比特幣跌至 64,690 美元，以太幣跌至 3,160 美元，反映了更廣泛的市場情緒。

"The headline [GDP] number sort of gives a false signal," remarked Sam Bullard, Senior Economist at Wells Fargo, in an interview with Decrypt. "When you take out the volatile numbers, the underlying momentum of the U.S. economy seems to be still progressing at a fairly brisk pace."

富國銀行高級經濟學家山姆·布拉德 (Sam Bullard) 在接受 Decrypt 採訪時表示：“標題 [GDP] 數字發出了錯誤信號。” “當你剔除波動較大的數據時，美國經濟的潛在動力似乎仍在以相當快的速度發展。”

Bullard highlighted that final sales to private domestic purchasers grew by 3.1% in the first quarter, indicating underlying strength in domestic demand. However, the GDP report also revealed a 3.7% increase in core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, raising concerns about the Fed's future rate policy.

Bullard 強調，第一季國內私人買家的最終銷售額成長了 3.1%，顯示國內需求的潛在強勁。然而，GDP報告也顯示，聯準會首選的通膨指標核心個人消費支出(PCE)增加了3.7%，引發了人們對聯準會未來利率政策的擔憂。

The elevated core PCE growth, up from 2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, could influence the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts, Bullard suggested.

布拉德表示，核心個人消費支出成長高於 2023 年第四季的 2%，可能會影響聯準會有關降息的決策。

The U.S. central bank has been actively raising interest rates to combat decades-high inflation, bringing them to a 23-year high and holding them steady for months. While higher interest rates can slow down economic growth by making borrowing more expensive, they can also dampen demand for risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, as safer havens such as bonds and cash become more appealing.

聯準會一直在積極升息，以應對數十年來的高通膨，使利率升至23年來的高位，並在數月內保持穩定。雖然利率上升可能會導致借貸成本上升，從而減緩經濟成長，但也會抑制對股票和加密貨幣等風險資產的需求，因為債券和現金等更安全的避風港變得更具吸引力。

Shifting expectations for rate cuts, alongside geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, have weighed heavily on risk assets this month, including Bitcoin. On Thursday, the odds of the Fed maintaining interest rates in May rose from 83% to 90%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

降息預期的轉變，加上中東地緣政治緊張局勢，本月對包括比特幣在內的風險資產造成了沉重壓力。根據芝加哥商品交易所集團的 FedWatch 工具，週四，聯準會維持 5 月利率的可能性從 83% 上升至 90%。

"Seeing a pickup in [core PCE] is consistent with the extended resiliency we're seeing in the U.S. economy on the demand side," Bullard said. "This keeps the Fed on the sidelines in regards to that timing of that first rate cut."

布拉德表示：“[核心個人消費支出]的回升與我們在美國經濟需求方面看到的長期彈性是一致的。” “這使得聯準會對於首次降息的時機持觀望態度。”

The recent economic data and its implications for monetary policy have sent a ripple effect through the cryptocurrency markets, raising questions about the timing and magnitude of the Fed's future rate adjustments and their potential impact on crypto asset prices.

最近的經濟數據及其對貨幣政策的影響在加密貨幣市場產生了連鎖反應，引發了人們對聯準會未來利率調整的時機和幅度及其對加密資產價格的潛在影響的疑問。