经济数据削弱降息希望，加密货币波动

在美国经济报告显示第一季度增长低于预期后，比特币和以太坊价格周四下跌。经济分析局 (BEA) 报告 GDP 年化增长率为 1.6%，低于经济学家预测的 2.2%。尽管住宅建设和消费者支出激增，但出口和库存却下降。该报告还显示核心个人消费支出（PCE）增长3.7%，可能影响美联储未来的降息计划。

Economic Data Casts Doubt on Fed's Rate Cut Expectations, Cryptocurrency Markets Wobble

经济数据对美联储降息预期产生质疑，加密货币市场波动

New York, United States - The release of key economic data on Thursday sent shockwaves through financial markets, including the cryptocurrency sector, as the U.S. economy's slower-than-expected growth in the first quarter dampened optimism for an imminent rate cut.

美国纽约 - 周四公布的关键经济数据给包括加密货币行业在内的金融市场带来冲击，因为美国第一季度经济增长低于预期，削弱了人们对即将降息的乐观情绪。

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annualized pace of 1.6% during the January-March period, falling short of economists' expectations of a 2.2% increase. This slowdown marks a significant departure from the previous six quarters, which saw GDP growth consistently exceeding 2% each quarter.

据美国经济分析局(BEA)称，1月至3月期间，美国国内生产总值(GDP)年化增长率为1.6%，低于经济学家预期的2.2%。这次放缓标志着与前六个季度的显着背离，前六个季度每个季度的 GDP 增长持续超过 2%。

The muted GDP growth was largely attributed to a decline in exports and a reduction in inventory stockpiles, which offset a jump in residential construction and increased consumer spending. The report's findings came on the heels of an impressive 3.4% annualized growth rate recorded in the final quarter of 2023.

GDP增长乏力主要是由于出口下降和库存减少，抵消了住宅建设的增长和消费者支出的增加。该报告的调查结果是在 2023 年最后一个季度实现令人印象深刻的 3.4% 的年化增长率之后发布的。

In the aftermath of the GDP release, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, experienced a slight decline. Bitcoin dipped to $64,690, while Ethereum fell to $3,160, reflecting the broader market sentiment.

GDP发布后，市值最大的两种加密货币比特币和以太坊的价格出现小幅下跌。比特币跌至 64,690 美元，以太坊跌至 3,160 美元，反映了更广泛的市场情绪。

"The headline [GDP] number sort of gives a false signal," remarked Sam Bullard, Senior Economist at Wells Fargo, in an interview with Decrypt. "When you take out the volatile numbers, the underlying momentum of the U.S. economy seems to be still progressing at a fairly brisk pace."

富国银行高级经济学家山姆·布拉德 (Sam Bullard) 在接受 Decrypt 采访时表示：“标题 [GDP] 数字发出了错误信号。” “当你剔除波动较大的数据时，美国经济的潜在动力似乎仍在以相当快的速度发展。”

Bullard highlighted that final sales to private domestic purchasers grew by 3.1% in the first quarter, indicating underlying strength in domestic demand. However, the GDP report also revealed a 3.7% increase in core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, raising concerns about the Fed's future rate policy.

Bullard 强调，第一季度国内私人买家的最终销售额增长了 3.1%，表明国内需求的潜在强劲。然而，GDP报告还显示，美联储首选的通胀指标核心个人消费支出(PCE)增长了3.7%，引发了人们对美联储未来利率政策的担忧。

The elevated core PCE growth, up from 2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, could influence the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts, Bullard suggested.

布拉德表示，核心个人消费支出增速高于 2023 年第四季度的 2%，可能会影响美联储有关降息的决策。

The U.S. central bank has been actively raising interest rates to combat decades-high inflation, bringing them to a 23-year high and holding them steady for months. While higher interest rates can slow down economic growth by making borrowing more expensive, they can also dampen demand for risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, as safer havens such as bonds and cash become more appealing.

美联储一直在积极加息，以应对数十年来的高通胀，使利率升至23年来的高位，并在数月内保持稳定。虽然利率上升可能会导致借贷成本上升，从而减缓经济增长，但也会抑制对股票和加密货币等风险资产的需求，因为债券和现金等更安全的避风港变得更具吸引力。

Shifting expectations for rate cuts, alongside geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, have weighed heavily on risk assets this month, including Bitcoin. On Thursday, the odds of the Fed maintaining interest rates in May rose from 83% to 90%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

降息预期的转变，加上中东地缘政治紧张局势，本月对包括比特币在内的风险资产造成了沉重压力。根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的 FedWatch 工具，周四，美联储维持 5 月份利率的可能性从 83% 上升至 90%。

"Seeing a pickup in [core PCE] is consistent with the extended resiliency we're seeing in the U.S. economy on the demand side," Bullard said. "This keeps the Fed on the sidelines in regards to that timing of that first rate cut."

布拉德表示：“[核心个人消费支出]的回升与我们在美国经济需求方面看到的长期弹性是一致的。” “这使得美联储对于首次降息的时机持观望态度。”

The recent economic data and its implications for monetary policy have sent a ripple effect through the cryptocurrency markets, raising questions about the timing and magnitude of the Fed's future rate adjustments and their potential impact on crypto asset prices.

最近的经济数据及其对货币政策的影响在加密货币市场产生了连锁反应，引发了人们对美联储未来利率调整的时机和幅度及其对加密资产价格的潜在影响的疑问。